Hail in Colorado, August 30, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
255 PM MDT MON AUG 30 2004

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY.  SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BLED INTO THE CWA
FROM THE SOUTH WHICH HAS BOILED UP OVER THE MOUNTAINS THIS
AFTERNOON.  MOST OF THE CONVECTION IS OF THE HIGH-BASED VARIETY
AND WILL LIKELY PRODUCE MORE IN THE WAY OF WIND THAN RAIN.
GREATEST THREAT OF CONVECTION WILL BE IN THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF
THE CWA THIS EVENING.  SUSPECT THAT THE MOISTURE...ALTHOUGH MINIMAL
...MAY BE A BIT MORE WIDESPREAD TOMORROW.  NOT ANTICIPATING ANY
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

.LONG TERM DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
U.S. WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH GENERALLY DRY
AND WARM WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.  WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW AND
MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE AREA MAY RESULT IN SOME EVENING
CONVECTION TOMORROW EVENING.  WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE DRY AND
WARMER AS WE GET ADDITIONAL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND THE UPPER
RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER COLORADO.  THE NEXT UPPER SHORT WAVE IS
FORECAST BY THE GFS TO MOVE ACROSS COLORADO ON FRIDAY.  THE ETA HAS
THIS SYSTEM OVER UTAH AT THE END OF ITS RUN...IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH
THE GFS SOLUTION...SO TIMING LOOKS REASONABLE.  LOOKING AT ENSEMBLE
RUNS OF THE GFS SHOW THAT A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS IS POSSIBLE WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THIS UPPER TROUGH.  SOME OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS DO
NOT SHOW ANY TROUGH AT ALL...BUT RATHER ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE ENTIRE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE U.S.  IT IS HARD TO DISCOUNT THE OPERATIONAL
GFS SOLUTION BECAUSE OF THE ENSEMBLE OUTLIERS...BUT AT THE SAME
TIME...CONFIDENCE IN THE OPERATIONAL SOLUTION IS LOW.  WILL STICK
WITH THE 20 PERCENT POPS THAT WE HAD IN THE FORECAST ALREADY.  THE
OTHER QUESTION ABOUT THE PASSAGE OF THE SYSTEM IS HOW MUCH LIGHTNING
IT MIGHT PRODUCE.  WILL ONLY MENTION THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS IN THE MORNING AND
LATE NIGHT HOURS.  BY MIDDAY SATURDAY...UPPER RIDGING SHOULD BE
RE-BUILDING OVER THE STATE WITH DRY AND SEASONAL WEATHER EXPECTED
FOR THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

.BOU...NONE.

&&
ET/KDRBY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
1112 AM MDT MON AUG 30 2004

COZ030>051-311200-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND
COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000
FEET-SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/
SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-LARIMER AND
BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-JEFFERSON AND WEST
DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK
COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-LARIMER
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-BOULDER AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-NORTH DOUGLAS
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/
EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES
ABOVE 6000 FEET-NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD
COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS
COUNTY-
1112 AM MDT MON AUG 30 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A BIT OF MOISTURE HAS CREPT INTO THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS MORNING WHICH
WILL LIKELY BE SUFFICIENT TO CREATE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS
OF THE ATMOSPHERE SO STORMS THAT DO FORM WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS THAN ANY SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL.  AT THIS POINT IS
APPEARS THAT AREAS TO THE SOUTHWEST...SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST OF DENVER
WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATER
TODAY.  NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CREEP BACK INTO
THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PARTICULARLY FOR
AREAS IN AND ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.  THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
PRIMARILY HIGH-BASED...PRODUCING MORE GUSTY WINDS THAN MEASURABLE
RAINFALL.

THE NEXT CHANGE IN OUR WEATHER WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY.  SHOWERS AND
LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA AS AN
UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSES OVER
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST COLORADO.  RELATIVELY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW
ON FRIDAY WILL HELP TO LOWER TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL...
PARTICULARLY IN AREAS AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE.  DRY AND WARMER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY RETURN TO THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

ET/DANKERS