Wildfire in California, September 6, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
230 PM PDT MON SEP 6 2004

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE HOT WEATHER INLAND EARLY
THIS WEEK. A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING INLAND TO THE NORTH WILL
BRING A COOLING TREND THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK ALONG WITH A SLOWLY
INCREASING MARINE LAYER. MOISTURE IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CAUSE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOONS WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...FAIR.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES.

.SHORT TERM...MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY. IT WAS MUCH COOLER IN MOST AREAS W
OF THE MOUNTAINS TODAY...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. THE 12Z NKX
SOUNDING HAD A NEAR SURFACE BASED INVERSION WITH WEAK ELY WINDS IN THE
LOW LEVELS AND A LITTLE COOLING AROUND 950 MB. WEAK GRADIENTS WITH
ONSHORE TRENDS.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT AND WEAK SYNOPTIC SCALE GRADIENTS WILL CONTINUE
WARM THROUGH WED. HOWEVER...THE AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES WILL BE STRONGER
AND WILL MODERATE MOST TEMPS W OF THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...IT WILL
STILL BE HOT INLAND. THE HI STARTS TO BREAK DOWN WED AND AN EDDY MAY
DEVELOP FOR PATCHY COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG. COOLER NEAR THE COAST
WED AND A LITTLE COOLER INLAND. A WEAK TROUGH MOVES PAST TO THE N THU
CAUSING STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW FOR MORE COOLING AND A DEEPENING MARINE
LAYER. MID LEVEL MOISTURE IN SLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MOUNTAINS WED AND THU AFTERNOONS...MAINLY S.
THE DRY CONDITIONS WILL CAUSE LONG DURATIONS OF LOW HUMIDITIES IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND INLAND EMPIRE AND A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH TUE FOR THOSE AREAS.

.LONG TERM...A LITTLE DRIER FLOW ALOFT FRI BUT COULD BE ENOUGH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FOR A SMALL CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SRN
MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...NOT MUCH CHANGE FRI. A STRONGER UPPER TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND FOR MORE DEEPENING OF THE
MARINE LAYER AND COOLING.

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING...SEE LAXRFWSGX.
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...SEE LAXSPSSGX.

ATKIN

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
130 PM PDT MON SEP 6 2004

CAZ042-043-048-055>058-071300-
ORANGE COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY COASTAL AREAS-
SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
RIVERSIDE COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
SANTA ANA MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS-
SAN DIEGO COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
130 PM PDT MON SEP 6 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR
EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE... REMAINDER OF TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

...RED FLAG WARNING TODAY AND TUESDAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST
CALIFORNIA AND THE INLAND EMPIRE FOR SUSTAINED RELATIVE HUMIDITY LESS
THAN 10 PERCENT FOR 10 HOURS OR MORE EACH DAY...

THE HOT DRY WEATHER WILL CAUSE ELEVATED FIRE DANGER. PEOPLE SHOULD BE
ESPECIALLY CAREFUL WITH SOURCES OF IGNITION.

REFER TO LAXRFWSGX WWUS86 KSGX FOR DETAILS.

...ABOVE NORMAL SURF WILL CAUSE DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE
COAST...

SWELL FROM DISSIPATED TROPICAL SYSTEM HOWARD WILL CAUSE LARGER THAN
NORMAL SURF RESULTING IN DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT TUESDAY.

ABOVE NORMAL SURF WILL CAUSE DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ATKIN