Heat in California, August 11 to 13, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HANFORD CA
809 AM PDT WED AUG 11 2004

.SHORT TERM...FOR THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR...NO UPDATE
PLANNED THIS MORNING AS THE POTENTIAL FOR A HOT DAY REMAINS. REALLY
JUST TWO AREAS OF INTEREST THIS MORNING, ONE BEING TEMPERATURES AND
THE OTHER THE OUTSIDE THREAT OF DESERT AND MOUNTAIN CONVECTION. AS
FOR TEMPERATURES, ANOTHER RECORD OR NEAR RECORD DAY OF HEAT IS A
GIVEN OVER THE KERN COUNTY DESERTS, AS THE AIRMASS HAS NOT CHANGED
AND THE RIDGE WILL PROVIDE FOR LOTS OF HEATING. 24 HOUR TEMPERATURE
TRENDS ARE RUNNING ABOUT WHERE THEY WERE YESTERDAY, THUS THE 105-110
DEGREE RANGE OF HIGHS SEEMS JUST FINE. OVER THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY,
THE VISALIA AND LOST HILLS WIND PROFILERS SHOW A SOLID 2 DEGREES
CELSIUS OF WARMING OF THE AIRMASS AND WITH THE MARINE LAYER DEPTH
REDUCED SOMEWHAT ALONG THE COAST, A SOLID 2-3 DEGREES OF WARMING
SHOULD TAKE PLACE TODAY. GRIDS AND ZONE TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD.

AS FOR THE CONVECTIVE THREAT OVER THE KERN DESERTS AND MOUNTAINS,
IT LOOKS LIMITED AGAIN AS THE AIRMASS IS RATHER DRY AND WITH NO REAL
TRIGGER TO SET OFF CONVECTION, THE EXTREME HEAT SHOULD CAP OFF
AGAIN, ANY CUMULUS THAT TRY AND GET GOING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES
SHOW HOWEVER, SOME MINOR INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
SOUTH. AT THE SURFACE, DEW POINTS OVER THE KERN COUNTY PORTION OF
THE ANTELOPE VALLEY ARE RUNNING AGAIN IN THE 30S, WITH THE DEEPER
SURFACE MOISTURE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST OVER IMPERIAL AND RIVERSIDE
COUNTIES. WILL GO AHEAD AND LEAVE THE SMALL POPS ALONE, BUT I HAVE
MY DOUBTS THAT ANY CONVECTION WILL GET GOING.

LITTLE CHANGE IN THE PATTERN IS PROGGED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS, THUS THE ADDED CLOUDS IN THE CURRENT GRIDS MAY HAVE TO BE
REDUCED ON THIS AFTERNOONS NEW GRID PACKAGE.

.LONG TERM...FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS
REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
MODELS ALL INITIALIZED THE 500MB LOW CENTER NEAR 46N/140W...WITH A
WEAK SHORT WAVE TROF CUTTING ACROSS CALIFORNIA SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
FORECAST ON TRACK WITH CURRENT MODEL RUN OF SHOWING SOME COOLING ON
SATURDAY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SHORT WAVE TROF. 850MB TEMP/S
RANGE FROM 21 TO 26 DEG-C OVER THE DISTRICT WHICH TRANSLATES IN
SURFACE MAX TEMP/S OF MID 90S TO NEAR 100 DEG-F. AGAIN...FORECAST ON
TRACK WITH THIS COOL DOWN TO JUST SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL NORM/S.
MODELS SHOW ADDITIONAL COOLING ON MONDAY WITH 850MB TEMP/S
INDICATING SHOW WARMING BY TUESDAY. THEREFORE...WILL ONLY SEE
TEMPERATURES FLUCTUATE UP AND DOWN BETWEEN NORMS AS CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA REMAINS HOT. IN ADDITION...A SHORT WAVE TROF ON SATURDAY
WILL ALLOW THE UPPER FLOW TO CHANGE TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION AND
TERMINATE ANY ADDITIONAL PROB OF PRECIP OVER THE SIERRA NEVADA.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS MAINTAIN A MORE WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN THROUGH
OUT THE EXTENDED RANGE PERIOD AS THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST EJECTS SHORT WAVES INTO THE REGION. THIS WILL HELP TO
PREVENT ANY SIGNIFICANT MONSOONAL MOISTURE SURGE FROM ENTERING THE
DISTRICT. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST THROUGH DAY SEVEN.

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.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

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DUDLEY/MOLINA