Damaging Winds in Arkansas, November 1, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
350 AM CST MON NOV 1 2004

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
SOME SCTD SHOWERS NOTED OVER PARTS OF THE FA THIS MRNG...WITH BULK
OF CONVECTION NOTED OVR ERN OK AND NWRN AR. INCRSG SLY FLOW HAS
ALLOWED HIGHER DEWPOINTS TO ADVECT FURTHER NWD THIS MRNG.

CONDS STILL SHAPING UP FOR A SIG HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT ACRS THE AREA
LATER TODAY AND TNGT. MODEL SOLUTIONS THIS MRNG HAVE TRENDED A BIT
SLOWER WITH OVERALL EWD PROGRESSION OF STORM SYS CURRENTLY TO OUR W.
WILL STICK WITH A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ETA FOR THIS FCST.

EXPECT AXIS OF HEAVIER RAIN TO WORK SLOLY EWD TODAY...AFFECTING MOST
OF THE FA BY LATER THIS AFTN. ACTIVITY WILL CONT DURG THE OVERNIGHT
HRS WITH CONTD THREAT OF FLOODING RAINS. HPC HAS A GOOD BIT OF THE
AREA OUTLINED FOR HVY RAIN POTENTIAL THRU 12Z TUE. BASED ON ALL OF
THIS...WILL EXTEND FF WATCH THRU TNGT FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. LOOKING AT
QPF AMOUNTS ON THE ORDER OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
TOTALS.

CDFNT IS PROGGED TO ENTER WRN AR THIS EVENING. SEVERAL WAVES ALONG
THE BNDRY ARE FCST TO TRACK NEWD INTO TUE...HELPING TO ENHANCE
RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THE FNT WILL STALL JUST TO THE SE OF STATE LATE
TUE. MEANWHILE...THE UPPER SYS TO FCST TO LIFT NEWD OUT OF TX TUE
NIGHT AND WED. THIS WILL AID IN THE FORMATION OF ANOTHER SFC LOW
ALONG THE FNT ACRS ERN AR. APPEARS THE CHCS OF STRONG STORMS WILL
RMN JUST TO OUR E WHERE MORE UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL BE. THE EVENTUAL
TRACK WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED CLOSELY.

UPPER LOW IS FCST TO TRACK TO THE W OF AR WED. WL NEED TO KEEP RAIN
CHCS IN FOR MUCH OF WED. COULD SEE SOME DRIER AIR WORK INTO SWRN AR
LATE IN THE DAY. MUCH COOLER AIR WILL WORK IN BEHIND THE SYS BY WED
EVENING.
&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
THE EXTENDED FORECAST WILL BE DRY. THE UPPER LOW WILL SLIDE EAST OF
THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND TAKE PRECIPITATION CHANCES WITH IT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA ON THURSDAY. HOWEVER...A
QUICK MOVING COLD FRONT WILL CLIP THE NORTH PART OF THE STATE
THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE THROUGH DRY SINCE IT
WILL SEVERELY LACK MOISTURE. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL BE THE MAIN RESULT OF THE PASSING FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE AND VERY
DRY AIR RETURN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES
ON SUNDAY FROM THE NORTH. WILL NOT INCLUDE POPS FOR SUNDAY AT THIS
TIME AS MOISTURE IS AGAIN LIMITED. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLOOD WATCH FROM 400 AM CST
MONDAY UNTIL 600 AM CST TUESDAY FOR ZONES ARZ003>007...ARZ012>016...
ARZ021>025...ARZ030>034...ARZ037>047...ARZ052>057...ARZ062>069.

44/51

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
345 PM CDT MON NOV 1 2004

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-021100-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
345 PM CDT MON NOV 1 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT

A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY ADVANCE THROUGH THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON. WARM AND HUMID AIR CONTINUES IN ADVANCE OF THIS COLD
FRONT WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN OCCURRING OVER MAINLY EASTERN
ARKANSAS. STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS OVER THE EAST. THE MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE STRONG
GUSTY WINDS.

ONE TO THREE INCHES OF RAIN WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS RESULTED IN
WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING. THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL OVER THE SOUTHEAST
HALF OF THE STATE. WITH THE MAIN MOISTURE CHANNEL NOW OVER THE
EASTERN PART OF THE STATE...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES OVER
EASTERN ARKANSAS. THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM FOR
ROUGHLY EAST OF A BATESVILLE TO BENTON TO CAMDEN LINE. AN ADDITIONAL
INCH OR TWO OF RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE IN THE WATCH AREA WHICH WOULD
LEAD TO ADDITIONAL RUN OFF CONCERNS AND RISES ON AREA CREEKS AND
STREAMS. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. THE RAINFALL MAY BE
ENHANCED AS THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ONLY CRAWL TO THE
EAST...NOT REACHING THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER UNTIL TUESDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THE FRONTAL SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO STALL OUT OVER SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS
TUESDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING ON IT. ADDITIONAL RAIN IS
LIKELY OVER THE STATE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH THE BEST
CHANCES OF HEAVY RAIN OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST WITH ANOTHER INCH OF
RAIN OR MORE POSSIBLE.

DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTH TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW STILL HAS TO CROSS
THE STATE WITH RAIN A POSSIBILITY ONCE AGAIN. IT APPEARS THE BEST
CHANCES OF RAIN WEDNESDAY WILL BE OVER THE NORTH...CLOSER TO THE
UPPER LOW.

ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAIN COULD CREATE MORE FLASH FLOODING PROBLEMS
...AND RISES ON LOCAL RIVERS AND STREAMS. THOSE WITH AGRICULTURAL
INTERESTS WILL ALSO NEED TO MONITOR THE SITUATION...AS FARM LANDS
NEAR RIVER BANKS ARE LIKELY TO FLOOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE LATE WEDNESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT....ACCOMPANIED BY DRIER AIR. COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN
TO THE STATE FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TONIGHT AND TUESDAY FOR FLOODING
CONCERNS.

56

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
940 AM CST MON NOV 01 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 E YELLVILLE           36.23N 92.63W
11/01/2004                   MARION             AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            TREES UPROOTED. DAMAGE TO PORCH AND ROOF OF HOUSE ACROSS
            FROM RACE TRACK ON HWY 62 EAST.

0855 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NE STEPHENS           33.45N 93.03W
11/01/2004                   OUACHITA           AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HOUSE DAMAGED ON COUNTY ROAD 80 ALONG WITH ANIMALS
            KILLED.

&&

58

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
1215 PM CST MON NOV 01 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1000 AM     TSTM WND DMG     TULIP                   34.08N 92.65W
11/01/2004                   DALLAS             AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            BARN BLOWN INTO STREET.

1155 AM     FLASH FLOOD      NORTH LITTLE ROCK       34.79N 92.26W
11/01/2004                   PULASKI            AR   PUBLIC

            CRYSTAL HILL ROAD AND BRIDEWAY FLOODED NEAR CENTRAL
            ARKANSAS CHRISTIAN SCHOOL. CARS STALLED IN WATER AND
            STRANDED.

1200 PM     FLASH FLOOD      LITTLE ROCK NATIONAL AI 34.73N 92.23W
11/01/2004                   PULASKI            AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LA HARPE BVLD AT ROBINSON AUDITORIUM FLOODED AND STREETS
            ARE BARICADED.

1210 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 NW TULIP              34.11N 92.69W
11/01/2004                   DALLAS             AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            STATE HIGHWAY 9 BLOCKED BY HIGH WATER.

&&

58

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
114 PM CST MON NOV 01 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1250 PM     FLASH FLOOD      CABOT                   34.97N 92.02W
11/01/2004                   LONOKE             AR   NWS EMPLOYEE

            STREET FLOODING. WATER UP TO 4 INCHES STANDING IN SOME
            YARDS.

1255 PM     FLASH FLOOD      SEARCY                  35.24N 91.73W
11/01/2004                   WHITE              AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WATER GETTING INTO SOME BUILDINGS AT HARDING UNIVERSITY.

0110 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 S CABOT               34.95N 92.02W
11/01/2004                   LONOKE             AR   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            FLOODING REPORTED ON KERR STATION ROAD. ROAD WAS
            BARRICADED.

&&

22

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
242 PM CST MON NOV 01 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 AM     TSTM WND DMG     KANSAS                  33.86N 92.99W
11/01/2004                   CLARK              AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN. SOME OUTBUILDINGS DAMAGED.
            TIN ROOFS OFF DOG KENNELS.

0100 PM     TSTM WND DMG     6 SSE HAMPTON           33.46N 92.43W
11/01/2004                   CALHOUN            AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ONE MOBILE HOME DESTROYED. TREES DOWN.

&&

22