Hail and Damaging Wind in Arkansas, August 11, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
300 PM CDT WED AUG 11 2004

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
NORTHWEST FLOW PUSHING FRONT THROUGH ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON.
FRONT OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE...AND WILL DEPART
OVERNIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT THIS EVENING SOUTH OF LITTLE ROCK...WITH SCATTERED
LIGHT RAIN/SHOWERS FARTHER NORTH.

OTHERWISE...NORTH/NORTHEAST WIND WILL FOLLOW FRONT WITH CLOUDS
BREAKING UP FROM THE NORTH OVERNIGHT.

ON THURSDAY...TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ALOFT OVER CENTER PART OF
THE COUNTRY. THIS WILL YIELD FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CU FIELD DURING
AFTERNOON...WITH BREEZY NORTHEAST WIND CONTINUING.

LOOKING AHEAD...DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE FRIDAY/SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES SLOWLY MODERATING. EVEN SO...READINGS WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL THROUGHOUT THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. (46)
&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD CONTINUITY WHILE
CONTINUING TO BE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THIS AFTERNOON. WITH NO
REAL DISCERNIBLE DIFFERENCES SEEN...WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH A BLEND
OF MODEL SOLUTIONS WITH A LEAN TOWARDS THE SLIGHTLY MORE CONSISTENT
GFS.

PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW WITH LARGE TROF FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY SOUTHWEST TO THE LOUISIANA GULF COAST AND STRONG
RIDGING OVER THE GREAT BASIN. PATTERN DOES FLATTEN OUT SOMEWHAT WITH
TIME AS SHORTWAVE ENERGY MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA AND APPROACHES
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. EVEN THOUGH FLOW DOES DAMPEN OUT...NORTHWEST
COMPONENT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE PERIOD. EVEN WITH CONTINUOUS
NORTHWEST FLOW...NO SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVES ARE SEEN AND PERIOD
SHOULD GENERALLY BE DRY. WILL LEAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN PLACE FOR
MONDAY AND INTRODUCE THEM AS WELL FOR TUESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR
INCREASE IN MOISTURE.

ON THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE THROUGH MONDAY WITH
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINT TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY
LESS THAN THEY COULD BE FOR MID AUGUST. SKIES WILL GENERALLY BE
CLEAR WITH SUBSIDENCE BEHIND TROPICAL SYSTEM RACING UP THE EASTERN
SEABOARD. HIGH SLIPS OFF TO THE EAST EARLY NEXT WEEK FOR AN INCREASE
IN MOISTURE AND A SLOW WARMING TREND WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL
BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL NOT BE OPPRESSIVE AS
GULF REMAINS CLOSED.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
LITTLE ROCK AR    63  81  57  82 /  30  10   0   0
HARRISON AR       54  72  52  75 /  20  10   0   0
HOT SPRINGS AR    63  82  57  82 /  30  10   0   0
PINE BLUFF AR     64  82  57  82 /  40  10   0   0
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  55  71  52  74 /  20  10   0   0
MONTICELLO AR     65  82  55  82 /  40  20   0   0
SEARCY AR         62  79  56  79 /  30  10   0   0
MOUNT IDA AR      63  82  56  82 /  30  10   0   0
RUSSELLVILLE AR   60  80  55  80 /  20  10   0   0
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
100 PM CDT WED AUG 11 2004

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-121000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
100 PM CDT WED AUG 11 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN COVERS MOST OF THE AREA AT
THIS TIME. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO OCCURRING WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE STRONGER STORMS OVER THE SOUTH. SOME OF THESE STORMS
OVER THE SOUTH HAVE BECOME SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL.

NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WERE GENERATED EARLIER TODAY BY A LARGE
AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED ACROSS THE NORTH. THESE BOUNDARIES
WILL BECOME THE FOCAL POINT FOR REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP STATE WIDE
DURING THE TIME OF MAXIMUM DAYTIME HEATING AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PART OF THE STATE AND INTERACTS WITH THESE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES.

A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL BECOME SEVERE WITH MORE DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE PUSHED TO THE
SOUTH OVERNIGHT TAKING THE CHANCES OF RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER WITH
IT. THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE
OVER THE SOUTH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE OVER THE REGION ON THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF
THE FRONT AND WILL DOMINATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE NEXT CHANCE OF ANY PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE UNTIL MONDAY
AND THEN ONLY OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE A SLIGHT WARMING
TREND BEGINS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

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