Funnel Cloud in Arkansas, April 29, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
941 AM CDT THU APR 29 2004

.UPDATE...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A WARM...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE OUTLOOK
AREA THIS MORNING AS A MIDDLE LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGINS TO APPROACH
FROM THE WEST. DEW POINTS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN AREAS HAVE BEGUN TO
RISE INTO THE LOWER 60S IN THE SOUTHWESTERN AREAS. MARGINAL
ATMOSHPERIC SHEAR PROFILES EXIST OVER THE REGION.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON...EXPECT THE PASSING SYSTEM TO AID IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. SHEAR PROFILES MOSTLY
SUGGEST A MULTICELL ENVIRONMENT...WHERE A FEW OF THE STRONGER
STORMS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 84 AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 55
COULD BRIEFLY BECOME SEVERE. THE MAIN SEVERE CONCENS IN THOSE AREAS
WILL BE FOR WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH AND HAIL. HAVE UPDATED THE ZONE
FORECAST AND THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK TO REFLECT THIS SCENARIO.

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

&&

18/HENRY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
237 PM CDT THU APR 29 2004

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
301919-
ADAMS-ASHLEY-ATTALA-BOLIVAR-CARROLL-CATAHOULA-CHICOT-CHOCTAW-
CLAIBORNE-CLARKE-CLAY-CONCORDIA-COPIAH-COVINGTON-EAST CARROLL-
FORREST-FRANKLIN LA-FRANKLIN MS-GRENADA-HINDS-HOLMES-HUMPHREYS-
ISSAQUENA-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JEFFERSON DAVIS-JONES-KEMPER-LAMAR-
LAUDERDALE-LAWRENCE-LEAKE-LEFLORE-LINCOLN-LOWNDES-MADISON LA-
MADISON MS-MARION-MONTGOMERY-MOREHOUSE-NESHOBA-NEWTON-NOXUBEE-
OKTIBBEHA-RANKIN-RICHLAND-SCOTT-SHARKEY-SIMPSON-SMITH-SUNFLOWER-
TENSAS-WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WEST CARROLL-WINSTON-YAZOO-
237 PM CDT THU APR 29 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...
NORTHEAST LOUISIANA...AND EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

...THUNDERSTORMS...
A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 7 PM FOR AREAS WEST OF A
LINE THAT STRETCHES FROM GRENADA COUNTY TO CONCORDIA PARISH.

SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS...WEST
OF A LINE THAT STRETCHES FROM GRENADA COUNTY TO CONCORDIA PARISH
WILL BE CAPABLE OF BECOMING SEVERE WITH THE MAIN CONCERN BEING
TORNADOS...WINDS AND HAIL.

A STRONG DISTURBANCE MOVING INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...COUPLED WITH
SIGNIFICANT DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP IN THE AREAS WEST OF THE LINE
MENTIONED ABOVE. BY LATE EVENING...THE STRONG TO SEVERE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH CONSIDERABLY AS THE SHEAR
WEAKENS AND AS INSTABILITY IS LOST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...

...DAYS TWO AND THREE...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
EXPECT THE THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP AGAIN ON FRIDAY...MAINLY
OVER AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20...AS ANOTHER STRONG MIDDLE
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH
FRIDAYS STORMS WILL BE FOR WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN THAT COULD RAISE
SOME FLOODING CONCERNS. AT THIS TIME...ANTICIPATE ONLY A SMALL
CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.

ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON...A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL BEGINING TO MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED INTO
THE LATE EVENING HOURS AS A SQUALL LINE...LOCATED ALONG THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH. THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THE PASSAGE
OF THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WINDS AND HAIL.

...DAYS FOUR THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS...IS NEEDED THIS EVENING AND MAY BE	SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...OTHERWISE NO ACTIVATION IS EXPECTED
THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY MAY 6TH.

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/JAN. THIS INCLUDES THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS
WEATHER OUTLOOK.