Flood in Arkansas, April 24, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
345 AM CDT SAT APR 24 2004

RUNNING BEHIND THIS MORNING WITH ACTIVE WEATHER ONGOING.  LARGE AREA
OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.  WILL
CONTINUE WITH FFA OVER MAINLY THE EASTERN AREAS WHERE HEAVIEST RAINS
HAVE OCCURRED OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS AND RAIN REMAINS ONGOING THIS
MORNING.

UPPER SYSTEM STILL OUT TO THE WEST AND WILL LIFT THROUGH THE PLAINS
BY LATER TONIGHT.  SURFACE FRONT WILL ALSO INITIALLY HANG TO THE
WEST...THEN MOVE THROUGH DURING THE NIGHT.

STILL THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN IN EASTERN AREAS WHILE PRECIP
SHIFTS OUT OF WESTERN ZONES DURING THE DAY.  BULK OF THE RAIN SHOULD
EXIT THE AREA BY AROUND MIDNIGHT...BUT STILL SOME LINGERING LOW POPS
IN THE FAR EAST FOR LATE TONIGHT AND PERHAPS EARLY SUNDAY.

A FEW QUIET DAYS TO START OFF THE UPCOMING WEEK...THEN ANOTHER
CHANCE OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE BY LATE WEEK.

PRELIM NUMBERS:

TUL    68   51   71   50 /  80   30   10   10
FSM    70   55   71   51 / 100   70   20   10
MLC    70   53   73   52 / 100   50   10   10
BVO    68   50   70   48 /  80   30   10   10
FYV    68   51   69   48 / 100   70   20   10
BYV    67   51   67   48 / 100   70   20   10
MKO    69   52   72   51 / 100   50   10   10
MIO    67   51   69   48 / 100   50   10   10
F10    69   52   72   51 / 100   30   10   10
HHW    72   55   74   51 / 100   70   10   10

FORECAST ID= 04

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY FOR ZONES
ARZ001>002...ARZ010>011...ARZ019>020...ARZ029.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY FOR ZONES OKZ049...
OKZ053...OKZ068>076.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
500 AM CDT SAT APR 24 2004

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-251100-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
500 AM CDT SAT APR 24 2004

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

...FLOODING WILL BE THE PRIMARY RISK TODAY...

EXCESSIVE RAINFALL THE PAST FEW DAYS HAS RESULTED IN FLOODING EARLY
THIS MORNING.  THE CURRENT AREA OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.  BUT MORE STORMS ARE
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREA.  ALTHOUGH THERE IS A CHANCE FOR A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...
THE MAIN RISK WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH WOULD AGGRAVATE THE FLOOD
SITUATION.

WARNING PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES CAN BE
FOUND IN THE CURRENT HAZARDS SECTION AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA.
GIVEN PROBABILITIES REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARNING TO BE
ISSUED AT YOUR LOCATION.

SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY ACROSS NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS AND ADJACENT PARTS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA BUT THE MAIN REQUEST
WILL BE REPORTS ON THE FLOODING SITUATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
ANY LINGERING THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EAST WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA
SUNDAY MORNING.  THE AREA WILL BE ABLE TO DRY OUT MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
THE NEXT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEXT THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL TABULAR AND
GRAPHICAL INFORMATION

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
227 AM CDT SAT APR 24 2004

ARZ019-029-240815-
CRAWFORD AR-SEBASTIAN AR-
227 AM CDT SAT APR 24 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 315 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     CRAWFORD

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
     SEBASTIAN

AT 227 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS IN
EASTERN LEFLORE COUNTY MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS
THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...FORT SMITH...
BARLING...VAN BUREN...AND ALMA.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS
TO 40 MPH.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
317 AM CDT SAT APR 24 2004

ARZ019-020-240915-
CRAWFORD AR-FRANKLIN AR-
317 AM CDT SAT APR 24 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT EFFECTIVE UNTIL 415 AM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
     FRANKLIN

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     CRAWFORD

AT 317 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
IN A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR ALMA TO BOONEVILLE MOVING EAST
AT 20 MILES AN HOUR.  FRANKLIN AND EASTERN CRAWFORD COUNTY CAN
EXPECT SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO ABOUT 40 MILES AN HOUR
AS THESE STORMS PASS THROUGH.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
400 AM CDT SAT APR 24 2004

ARZ010-011-019-020-029-OKZ072-076-240915-
CRAWFORD AR-FRANKLIN AR-LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH
OK-WASHINGTON AR-
400 AM CDT SAT APR 24 2004

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 116 HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES:

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     MADISON...WASHINGTON AND CRAWFORD

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
     FRANKLIN AND SEBASTIAN

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     SEQUOYAH

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     LE FLORE