Flash Flood in Arkansas, April 24, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
400 AM CDT SAT APR 24 2004

.DISCUSSION...
PATTERN SHOULD FINALLY CHANGE AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES AND BRING AN
END TO THE SEIGE OF HEAVY RAIN AND SEVERE WEATHER...BUT NOT RIGHT
AWAY. FRONTAL BOUNDARY GOT PUSHED INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ARKANSAS BUT
EXPECT IT TO QUICKLY LIFT BACK NORTH DURING THE DAY. MOST OF THE RAIN
AGAIN IN WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS BUT IT SHOULD SLOWLY SPREAD TO THE
EAST DURING THE DAY AS THE UPPER LOW IN THE WEST STARTS TO MOVE OUT
TO THE NORTHEAST. WILL START OUT WITH CHANCE POPS IN THE SOUTHEAST
INCREASING TO CATEGORICAL IN THE NORTHWEST THEN SHOW INCREASE IN
POPS DURING THE DAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT AND
SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND SHOULD MOVE OFF TO THE EAST ON
SUNDAY. THE BEST CHANCE OF RAIN AND HEAVIEST RAIN WILL LIKELY
ACCOMPANY THE FRONT TONIGHT. WILL GO WITH 90 PERCENT POPS ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT AND WILL STRESS HEAVY RAIN. THE INSTABILITY AND
DYNAMICS ALSO SUGGEST A CHANCE OF SEVERE STORMS...BUT THAT IS NOT
LOOKING AS SERIOUS AS THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT SO WILL PLAY UP THE
HEAVY RAINS BUT NOT PLAY UP SEVERE WEATHER IN THE ZONES. RAIN SHOULD
DECREASE FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AND WILL LOWER POPS THERE.
CHANCES OF RAIN WILL DECREASE SUNDAY AS THE FRONT MOVES AWAY AND
THE UPPER TROF PASSES OVER THE AREA. WILL KEEP HIGH POPS EARLY IN
THE EAST BUT HAVE ALL RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST BY THE END OF THE
DAY. A SECONDARY SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY. SOME MOISTURE ACCOMPANIES THIS SYSTEM BUT WILL ONLY
FORECAST AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS FOR NOW AND NO MENTION OF RAIN.
MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES TO TEMP FORECASTS.

DUE TO ACTIVE WEATHER...DID NOT MAKE MANY CHANGES TO EXTENDED EXCEPT
TO BRING FORECASTS OF SOME ELEMENTS MORE IN LINE WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
LITTLE ROCK AR    75  61  73  54 /  60  90  80  10
HARRISON AR       68  54  67  48 /  90  90  50  10
HOT SPRINGS AR    74  61  73  54 /  70  90  70  10
PINE BLUFF AR     78  63  74  54 /  50  90  80  10
MOUNTAIN HOME AR  68  54  67  48 /  90  90  60  10
MONTICELLO AR     79  64  75  55 /  40  90  90  10
SEARCY AR         75  60  72  53 /  70  90  80  10
MOUNT IDA AR      73  60  73  54 /  70  90  70  10
RUSSELLVILLE AR   71  58  71  53 /  80  90  60  10
&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 600 PM CDT
SATURDAY FOR ZONES ARZ003>007...ARZ012>016...ARZ021>025...
ARZ030>034...ARZ037>039.
&&

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LITTLE ROCK AR
500 AM CDT SAT APR 24 2004

ARZ003>007-012>016-021>025-030>034-037>047-052>057-062>069-251000-
ARKANSAS-BAXTER-BOONE-BRADLEY-CALHOUN-CLARK-CLEBURNE-CLEVELAND-
CONWAY-DALLAS-DESHA-DREW-FAULKNER-FULTON-GARLAND-GRANT-HOT SPRING-
INDEPENDENCE-IZARD-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-LINCOLN-LOGAN-LONOKE-
MARION-MONROE-MONTGOMERY-NEWTON-OUACHITA-PERRY-PIKE-POLK-POPE-
PRAIRIE-PULASKI-SALINE-SCOTT-SEARCY-SHARP-STONE-VAN BUREN-WHITE-
WOODRUFF-YELL-
500 AM CDT SAT APR 24 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A LARGE PART OF ARKANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS ARKANSAS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE ENTIRE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTAIN
HEAVY RAINFALL. HEAVY RAINS ON SATURATED GROUND IN NORTHERN AND
PARTS OF CENTRAL ARKANSAS COULD CAUSE FLASH FLOODING.

HEAVY RAINS IN THE REST OF THE AREA COULD CAUSE SOME FLOODING OF
LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS...ESPECIALLY TONIGHT.

THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ANY TIME TODAY AND TONIGHT...
BUT THE BEST CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH TODAY IN NORTHERN AND
PARTS OF CENTRAL ARKANSAS AND THE WATCH WILL LIKELY BE EXTENDED
INTO TONIGHT IN MUCH OF THE SAME AREA...AND ADDITIONAL AREAS
MAY BE INCLUDED.

THE HEAVY RAINS WILL ALSO RESULT IN RISING RIVERS AND RIVER FLOODING
WILL OCCUR IN SOME AREAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

RAIN WILL DECREASE SUNDAY. HEAVY RAINS SHOULD MOVE OUT OF THE AREA
BUT SOME FLOODING FROM RUNOFF COULD CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY. ALSO
RIVER FLOODING WILL CONTINUE IN SOME AREAS FOR SEVERAL DAYS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED ANYWHERE IN ARKANSAS AT ANY TIME
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

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