Damaging Wind in Arizona, July 27, 2004

Name: Damaging Wind in Arizona, July 27, 2004
Start: 2004-07-27T21:50
End: 2004-07-27T21:55
Location: Arizona

July 27, 2004 · NWS TWC · 1 event in 1 county or zone

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

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The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: $8,000
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 1

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS TWC wrote it up.

With a jet diving into northern portions of Arizona, moisture and dynamics were sufficient for strong storm development. The storm prediction center had issued a severe thunderstorm watch for portions of Southeast Arizona due to these favorable conditions. A weak impulse was embedded in the flow overhead, along with better shear which all helped to lead to severe thunderstorm development. The storms were producing heavy rain and gusty winds in excess of 55 MPH. The winds were strong enough to knock down power poles and uproot trees in Northern Pima County.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 27, 9:41 PM MST, 9 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 27, 9:41 PM MST, 9 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
941 PM MST TUE JUL 27 2004

SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION

.SYNOPSIS...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA
WILL KEEP SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FOR
ANOTHER DAY OR SO. STRONG NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AROUND A WEST COAST
RIDGE WILL RESULT IN A DRYING TREND THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK WITH
A CORRESPONDING DECREASE IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
&&

.DISCUSSION...SOMEWHAT OF A BUSY EVENING WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE CWA. THE MAIN THREAT FROM STORMS TODAY WAS
STRONG WINDS WHICH PROMPTED THE ISSUANCE OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WATCH FOR GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES THAT ENDED AT 7 PM MST.
OUTFLOW FROM STORMS MOVING SOUTHEAST FROM THE PHOENIX AREA WERE
STARTING TO MOVING THROUGH TUCSON AT 930 PM. IN THE SHORT-TERM WILL
NOT BE MAKING ANY CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. OTHERWISE...MODELS
WERE STILL SHOWING A SLIGHT DRYING TREND AS THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES
OVERHEAD WITH DRIER AIR SPREADING INTO THE STATE. THE CENTER OF
THE HIGH EVENTUALLY SETS UP OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AROUND SUNDAY
WITH A BETTER FLOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING ESTABLISHED.
&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 27, 7:31 PM MST, 2 hours 19 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
731 PM MST TUE JUL 27 2004

UPDATED TO REMOVE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR GRAHAM AND GREENLEE
COUNTIES

AZZ019-030-281400
NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-
731 PM MST TUE JUL 27 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR GRAHAM AND GREENLEE COUNTIES

.DAY ONE...REST OF TODAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAD MAINLY BEEN
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY. HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE BURN
AREAS OF MOUNT GRAHAM AND ALONG HIGHWAY 70 NORTHWEST OF SAFFORD
PROMPTED FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS
EVENING. THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER IN TERMS OF THE POTENTIAL FOR
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESSES OF 58 MPH AND LARGE HAIL HAD DIMINISHED.
THUS...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUED EARLIER WAS ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE AT 7 PM MST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A FAIRLY LOW-GRADE MONSOON PATTERN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...AS THE RIDGE AXIS BECOMES ORIENTED FROM OFF THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST INTO NORTHERN BAJA. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING DRIER
NORTHWEST FLOW PUSHING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND DECREASED
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. IN FACT...WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST ARE ONLY EXPECTING SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING FROM TUCSON
EAST. AN UPSWING IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH REBUILDS NORTH AND
EAST OF THE STATE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

AZZ029-031>035-281400-
COCHISE COUNTY-SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN
VALLEY-SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-TOHONO OODHAM NATION-
WESTERN PIMA COUNTY-
731 PM MST TUE JUL 27 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MOST OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA

.DAY ONE...REST OF TODAY
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST PINAL...EASTERN PIMA AND NORTHERN COCHISE
COUNTY. THE STRONGEST STORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND DAMAGING
WINDS WERE OVER OPEN COUNTRY IN SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY AT 730 PM
MST. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

A FAIRLY LOW-GRADE MONSOON PATTERN IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY...AS THE RIDGE AXIS BECOMES ORIENTED FROM OFF THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST INTO NORTHERN BAJA. THIS PATTERN WILL BRING DRIER
NORTHWEST FLOW PUSHING INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST AND DECREASED
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. IN FACT...WESTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST ARE ONLY EXPECTING SOME AFTERNOON CLOUDS
DURING THIS TIME FRAME...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE WORDING FROM TUCSON
EAST. AN UPSWING IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY MAY OCCUR LATE IN THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH REBUILDS NORTH AND
EAST OF THE STATE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 27, 6:22 PM MST, 3 hours 28 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
622 PM MST TUE JUL 27 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0558 PM     FLASH FLOOD      15 SSW THATCHER         32.63N 109.83W
07/27/2004                   GRAHAM             AZ   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            MUD ACROSS HIGHWAY 366 BELOW TURKEY FLAT

&&

CWR

The radar

The Tucson radar (KEMX), 56 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 04:51 UTC.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.

Thunderstorm Wind, Pima

When: July 27, 9:50 PM MST to 9:55 PM MST
Where: Pima County, 5 mi NW of Tucson
Measured: 52 kt (60 mph) estimated gust
Property damage: $8,000
Reported by: NWS EMPLOYEE(OFF DUTY)
Coordinates: 32.283, -111.000

Law Enforcement reported about 5 power poles had been downed on the northwest side of Tucson. Newspapers reported that the same storm caused a tree to be downed on a home on Ederbrooke Road, and an NWS employee reported that another tree was uprooted and across Ina Road between La Cholla Road and La Canada Road.

What these are

Thunderstorm Wind: Winds from a thunderstorm of 50 knots (58 mph) or more, or lower winds that caused damage or casualties. Measured gusts are marked MG, estimated EG.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Arizona in 2004 Every state in 2004 This day in weather history Warnings in Arizona, July 2004

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5415721.