Hail in Arizona, July 27, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
323 PM MST TUE JUL 27 2004

.SYNOPSIS...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE NORTHLAND THIS EVENING...LASTING UNTIL AT LEAST MIDNIGHT OVER
EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ARIZONA. STARTING TOMORROW A DEVELOPING
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING DRIER AIR INTO THE STATE. THIS WILL
RESULT IN A DOWNWARD TREND IN STORM ACTIVITY FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. BEST MOISTURE IS
LOCATED IN YAVAPAI AND GILA COUNTIES WHERE SOME STORMS HAVE BECOME
SEVERE. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE NOW MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST UTAH AND
AN ASSOCIATED JET STREAK ARE PLAYING A PART IN THE SEVERITY OF THE
STORMS IN OUR CWA. EXPECTING ONGOING CONVECTION IN YAVAPAI TO SAG
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS. INSTABILITY HAS NOT BEEN
AS HIGH AS EXPECTED NORTH OF THE RIM DUE TO DRIER AIR...BUT THIS IS
WHERE THE DISTURBANCE IS HEADING THIS EVENING. INCREASING SHEAR AND
COOLING ALOFT WILL LEAD TO A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING
UNTIL AT LEAST MIDNIGHT IN THAT AREA. SMALL HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY SOME OF THOSE STORMS.

A DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY IN
THE WEEKEND. WITH BELOW NORMAL HEIGHTS AND COOL AIR ALOFT...WE WILL
STILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR OUR HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO PULL THESE OUT
IF MODEL TRENDS PROVE CORRECT IN THEIR DEGREE OF DRYING. HIGH
PRESSURE REBUILDS TO OUR EAST LATE IN THE WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND POPS WERE
INCREASED SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT THIS.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH UNTIL 7
PM MST FOR YAVAPAI AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTIES
&&

JOHNDROW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
240 PM MST TUE JUL 27 2004

AZZ004>018-037>040-281400-
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS-
MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD-
NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264-
CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU-
BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY-
LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY-
EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY-
240 PM MST TUE JUL 27 2004

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR YAVAPAI AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTIES
UNTIL 7 PM MST...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN
GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED JET STREAM WILL MOVE
ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...INCREASING
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SOME BECOMING SEVERE ACROSS YAVAPAI
COUNTY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SPREADING SOUTHWARD
ACROSS MUCH OF YAVAPAI AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTIES THROUGH EARLY
EVENING WITH A FEW OF THESE BEING SEVERE. ELSEWHERE ACROSS NORTHERN
ARIZONA...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. SOME
OF THESE STORMS WILL CONTAIN SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE RESULTING IN ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST...MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE FOR A CONTINUATION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...THE DRYING TREND WILL EXPAND EASTWARD TO
ENCOMPASS MOST OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. MOISTURE AND STORMS SHOULD BEGIN
TO INCREASE AGAIN TOWARD THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

JJ