1 flash flood, as filed by the National Weather Service.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 16, 2:15 AM MST, 45 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 215 AM MST FRI JUL 16 2004 SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION .SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT CENTERED OVER COLORADO WILL KEEP A MOIST EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW INTO ARIZONA THIS WEEK. THE RISK OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DECREASE SOMEWHAT OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE UPPER HIGH MOVES SOUTH AND CUTS OFF SOME OF THE MOISTURE SUPPLY. && .DISCUSSION...STILL LOOKING AT SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EARLY THIS MORNING AS STORMS MOVING WEST OUT OF COCHISE COUNTY MERGED WITH ONES TRACKING NORTH OUT OF SONORA MEXICO. THIS MERGING OF STORMS HAD RESULTED IN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTY AFTER MIDNIGHT. THE HEAVIEST RAIN FELL OVER GENERALLY OPEN COUNTRY IN THE PATAGONIA MOUNTAINS EAST OF POPULATED AREAS SUCH AS RIO RICO AND NOGALES. HOWEVER...FOLKS AROUND THE TOWN OF PATAGONIA LIKELY EXPERIENCED SOME HEAVY RAIN. EXPECT THIS ACTIVITY TO DIMINISH BY DAYLIGHT. OVERALL PATTERN WILL BE THE SAME AGAIN TODAY WITH THE CENTER OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT DRIFTING AROUND THE FOUR CONCERNS AREA. MODELS CONTINUED TO SHOW THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTING SOUTH TO OVER SRN OR SWRN NEW MEXICO BY MONDAY. THIS SHOULD LEAD TO A GRADUAL DECREASE IN OUR CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING UP TO ABOVE NORMAL READINGS. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 1156 AM MST THU JUL 15 2004 AZZ019-029>035-160700- NORTHERN GREENLEE COUNTY-UPPER GILA RIVER VALLEY-COCHISE COUNTY- SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY-TUCSON METRO/MARANA/GREEN VALLEY- SANTA CRUZ COUNTY-TOHONO OODHAM NATION-WESTERN PIMA COUNTY- 1156 AM MST THU JUL 15 2004 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA .DAY ONE...TODAY SYNOPSIS...THERE IS A HIGHER RISK OF SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS WITH LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN TO THE EAST OF TUCSON TODAY...WITH AN HIGHER RISK OF MORE WIDESPREAD VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WEST OF TUCSON. DISCUSSION...A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...WHICH ORIGINATED FROM SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA LAST NIGHT...WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE EAST THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO ALONG THE BASE OF THE UPPER RIDGE TODAY... AND EVENTUALLY WILL PUSH INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF ARIZONA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL ACT AS A TRIGGERING MECHANISM FOR THUNDERSTORM INITIATION THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION... BOTH THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH CENTERS LOCATED OVER COLORADO THIS MORNING WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. THIS WILL ALLOW THE FLOW ALOFT TO BECOME DIFFLUENT...THUS ALSO AIDING CONVECTIVE INITIATION. THIS DIFFLUENT AREA WILL PUSH INTO THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF ARIZONA BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND THEN WILL SHIFT NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL ARIZONA BY LATE THIS EVENING. THE GOES-10 PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED THAT LOCATIONS WEST OF TUCSON REMAIN VERY MOIST IN THE LOW LEVELS...WITH AREAS EAST OF TUCSON BEGINNING TO SEE SOME DRYING COMING IN FROM THE EAST. GIVEN THIS...THERE IS A HIGHER RISK OF SEVERE DOWNBURST WINDS WITH LOCALIZED VERY HEAVY RAIN TO THE EAST OF TUCSON TODAY...WITH AN HIGHER RISK OF MORE WIDESPREAD VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WEST OF TUCSON. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BEGIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS...PUSH INTO THE VALLEYS BY LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN PUSH WEST INTO THE LOWER DESERTS BY EARLY THIS EVENING. STORM MOTION WILL BE TO THE WEST NORTHWEST AT 15 MPH TODAY. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH CENTER MOVES FURTHER SOUTH...CUTTING OFF THE MOISTURE SUPPLY FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL STILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
The Tucson radar (KEMX), 46 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 09:59 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Law enforcement reported that a vehicle was stuck in the Nogales wash. The vehicle became stuck when the driver tried to cross a roadway that was flooded by the wash.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2004Every state in 2004This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, July 2004
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5415769.