1 flash flood, as filed by the National Weather Service.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 16, 9:00 AM MST, 8 hours 15 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 900 AM MST FRI JUL 16 2004 .SYNOPSIS..TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL LINGER OVER THE STATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LOOK FOR DAILY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. && .DISCUSSION...A MID LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION REMAINED ALONG THE COLORADO/NEW MEXICO BORDER THIS MORNING. OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS THE CENTER OF THIS CIRCULATION WILL SLOWLY MOVE SOUTHWARD ENDING UP NEAR THE NEW MEXICO/MEXICO BORDER BY SUNDAY. THIS WILL PLACE THE LOW-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO. AS A RESULT...IT APPEARS THAT THE MOIST FLOW FROM MEXICO WILL CONTINUE. FOR TODAY...SOUNDINGS FROM ACROSS ARIZONA LOOK SOMEWHAT STABLE MAINLY RESULTING FROM A SATURATED MID LEVEL AIR MASS AND COOL LOW LEVELS RESULTING FROM RECENT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...DRY MID LEVEL AIR IS BEING ADVECTED WESTWARD ACROSS THE ARIZONA/NEW MEXICO BORDER THIS MORNING. AS A RESULT...WILL BE KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON FAR EASTERN ARIZONA SINCE THE STRONGEST STORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM WHERE THE MID LEVELS DRY THE MOST (MORE INSOLATION). FOR THE REMAINDER OF NORTHERN ARIZONA LOOK FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. COULD BE QUITE A BIT OF EVENING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW FROM EASTERN ARIZONA MOVES ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. MODELS DRY THINGS OUT A BIT OVER THE WEEKEND BUT IF THERE IS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THIS DRYING WILL TURN OUT TO BE A FIGMENT OF THE MODELS IMAGINATION. REALLY CANT SEE A DOWNTURN IN ACTIVITY OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS. THE DEEP LAYER FLOW IS COMING FROM VERY MOIST ORIGINS. THE MODELS DRY THINGS FURTHER NEXT WEEK BUT THIS TOO SEEMS TO BE OVER AGGRESSIVENESS BY THE MODELS. CURRENT GRIDS CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS THROUGH NEXT WEEK AND THIS STILL LOOKS GOOD. MCCOLLUM && .FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE. &&
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 700 AM MST FRI JUL 16 2004 AZZ004>018-037>040-171400- WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM-GRAND CANYON COUNTRY-YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS- YAVAPAI COUNTY VALLEYS AND BASINS-OAK CREEK AND SYCAMORE CANYONS- MARBLE AND GLEN CANYONS-KAIBAB PLATEAU-COCONINO PLATEAU- NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS HWY 264 NORTHWARD- NORTHEAST PLATEAU AND MESAS SOUTH OF HWY 264- CHINLE VALLEY-CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND DEFIANCE PLATEAU- BLACK MESA AREA-LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN COCONINO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN NAVAJO COUNTY- LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY IN APACHE COUNTY- EASTERN MOGOLLON RIM-WHITE MOUNTAINS-NORTHERN GILA COUNTY- 700 AM MST FRI JUL 16 2004 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR APACHE...COCONINO...NORTHERN GILA...NAVAJO...AND YAVAPAI COUNTIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA. .DAY ONE...TODAY A MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM BY LATE IN THE MORNING OVER THE WHITE AND CHUSKA MOUNTAINS AND ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM. THE MAIN THREAT FROM STORMS NEAR THE NEW MEXICO BORDER WILL BE HAIL UP TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER. FOR THE REST OF NORTHERN ARIZONA DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN ISOLATED HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING STORMS. LOCAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER YAVAPAI...NORTHERN GILA AND SOUTHERN COCONINO COUNTIES. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY A MOIST AIR MASS WILL REMAIN OVER NORTHERN ARIZONA FOR SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN WILL DIMINISH BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.
The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 93 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 00:16 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
American Gulch in the Willow Fire Burn area had 5 feet of water flowing in it. Fire crews were unable to cross because of the flowing water.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Arizona in 2004Every state in 2004This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, July 2004
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5414757.