High Wind in Alaska, September 26, 2004

SOUTHEAST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
1045 AM ADT SAT SEP 25 2004

.SYNOPSIS...
.SHORT RANGE...A STRONG OCCLUSION WITH A SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION
SHOULD EXTEND SSE FROM ICY BAY 18Z SUN AND MAKE LANDFALL ON THE
PANHANDLE NORTH OF SITKA BEFORE 00Z SUN.  STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY
RAIN BEGINNING IN THE EASTERN GULF COAST TONIGHT AND SPREADING
ONSHORE ALONG THE OUTER COAST TO NEAR SITKA BY DAYBREAK SUN...AND
REACHING MOST OF THE INNER CHANNELS NORTH OF FREDERICK SOUND SUN.

LARGE SCALE CONTEXT IS THE FLOW AROUND THE PARENT LOW ALOFT
THAT IS ABOUT 200 NM W FAIRBANKS.  NUMEROUS STRONG VORTICITY
MAXIMA ARE CIRCULATING CYCLONICALLY AROUND THIS LOW.

A 982 MB LOW MOVING NNE TOWARD SEWARD AT 12Z WILL HAVE THE
OCCLUSION...HEAVY RAIN AND WINDS AS HIGH AS G60 FOR THE
YAKUTAT ZONE. THE LOW MOVING ONSHORE OVER SEWARD BY 18Z AND
THE HEAVY RAIN FOOTPRINT SPREADING TO MOST OF PNHDL N OF
FREDERICK SOUND SUN MORNING.  UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL HELP DEVELOP
A 982 MB LOW NEAR FORT YUKON BY 00Z MON LEAVING A RESIDUAL 984 MB
LOW IN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THAT WILL BE GRADUALLY FILLING.

SUN EVENING THE FRONT SHOULD BE OVER A SITKA TO JUNEAU LINE
WITH A FRONTAL WAVE MOVING ONSHORE. OVERNIGHT THE WAVE SHOULD
MOVE INLAND AND PERMIT THE FRONT TO REACH THE SOUTHERN PANHANDLE
WHEN A SECOND WAVE WILL AGAIN SLOW IT DOWN.

.LONG RANGE...FRONT DEPICTED IN SHORT RANGE DISCUSSION FINALLY
CLEARS THE PANHANDLE MON MORNING. QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE
BETWEEN THE MODELS THEN ON SYSTEMS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF IN COLD
WESTERLY FLOW MON AND TUE. DIFFERENCES ARE MAINLY IN TIMING OF
INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE GULF THOUGH. SO SHOWERS
WILL PREDOMINATE BEFORE RIDGING IN GULF SWITCHES UPPER FLOW TO
NORTHWEST AND BEGINS DRYING THE AREA OUT TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH
WED. NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGS COLDER AIR TO THE PANHANDLE ALSO WITH
MORE BELOW FREEZING TEMPS LIKELY FOR NORTHERN ZONES TUE NIGHT AND
WED NIGHT.

ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF THU BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW ON EVOLUTION OF THE FRONT FOR SOUTHEAST ALASKA AS MODEL
DIFFERENCES AND RUN-TO-RUN DIFFERENCES ARE LARGE. 12Z GFS DOES
NOT LOOK LIKE IT IS GOING ALONG WITH 00Z MRF IN DRIVING NEXT
SYSTEM TO THE SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLE. NEW GFS IS DRIVING SYSTEM
FURTHER TO THE NORTH WITH PRECIP SPREADING BACK INTO THE AREA
THU. EUROPEAN MODEL IS EVEN QUICKER TO BRING UPPER TROUGH BACK
INTO THE GLFAK. SO SUNNY/PARTLY CLOUDY WEATHER FOR LATE WEEK OVER
NORTHERN ZONES LOOKING LESS LIKELY NOW.

.AJK...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WATCH ZONES 17 AND 22...INCLUDING YAKUTAT AND
         ELFIN COVE.
MARINE...STORM 51 AND 52 TONIGHT...GALE 43.  SCA ALL REMAINING
         MARINE ZONES.