Blizzard in Alaska, November 8, 2004

Name: Blizzard in Alaska, November 8, 2004
Start: 2004-11-08T17:56
End: 2004-11-08T21:30
Location: Alaska

November 8, 2004 · NWS AFC · 2 events in 2 counties and zones

A strong low pushed north toward the Alaska Peninsula from the north Pacific. Strong wind and snow in advance of the front resulted in blizzard conditions along the Alaska Peninsula and at Dutch Harbor.

The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 2

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS AFC wrote it up.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 8, 1:00 PM AST, 4 hours 56 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Nov 8, 1:00 PM AST, 4 hours 56 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION SOUTHWEST ALASKA
100 PM AST MON NOV 8 2004

.DISCUSSION...
IN THE SHORT TERM...STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING IN THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC TO BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE LATE TODAY THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING OVER THIS AREA AS WELL.
THROUGH THE FIRST 2 DAYS...THE MODELS ARE IN MODERATE AGREEMENT.
THEREFORE...WOULD EXPECT STRONG WARMING WITH THE FRONT WORKING NORTH
FROM THE EASTERN ALEUTIAN CHAIN INTO SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA LATE
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. SNOW SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO RAIN ALONG THE COAST
TOMORROW EVENING. IN THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN...LOW MOVING ACROSS THE CHAIN
NEAR COLD BAY. STRONG WINDS WITH THE LOW...BUT NOT CONFIDENT THERE
WILL BE HIGH WIND WARNING CRITERIA. SO...WILL CHANGE WINTER STORM TO
BLIZZARD WARNING TO TONE DOWN WINDS. IT WILL STILL BE VERY BAD
CONDITIONS...BUT NOT EXPECTING THE WINDS TO BE AS GUSTY. SNOW WILL
CHANGE OVER TO RAIN RATHER QUICK IN THE ALASKA PENINSULA. SNOW WILL
STAY IN THE UNALASKA ZONE AND WITH THE BACKSIDE COLD AIR FILTERING
INTO THE AREA EXPECT BLIZZARD CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
TUESDAY EASILY POSSIBLY INTO THE EVENING. ACROSS BRISTOL BAY...WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL BE THE FORECAST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THE
LOW ITSELF LIFTS INTO BRISTOL BAY TUESDAY NIGHT WITH CONTINUED STRONG
SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE GULF. ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA...WIND
ADVISORY AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES WILL RULE THE FORECAST TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH THE WARM FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVING UP THE GULF.

IN THE EXTENDED...MODELS OUT AT DAY 3 ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT. EVEN SOME
GRAVE DIFFERENCES FROM THE ENSEMBLE MEAN FROM THE 00Z RUN WITH THE
12Z PACKAGE OF THE GFS. CANADIAN ENSEMBLES JUST AS MUCH VARIANCE. BIG
DIFFERENCE IS A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE BRISTOL
BAY UPPER LEVEL LOW. GFS A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE IN MAKING A CLOSED
LOW THROUGH THE GULF WITH THIS FEATURE. OTHER MODELS NOT AS
AGGRESSIVE AT THE MOMENT. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST NOT THAT HIGH
DUE TO THE BIG DIFFERENCES WITH THE MODELS. GFS SOLUTION WOULD PUSH A
LOW INTO THE GULF AND REMAIN CLOSED OVER THE NORTHERN GULF THROUGH
FRIDAY. SURFACE LOW WOULD BE STACKED UNDERNEATH. SHORT WAVE TROUGH
MOVING THROUGH THE BERING SEA THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY TO BRING A
CHANGE IN THE PATTERN FROM A HIGH AMPLITUDE TO MORE ZONAL. THIS WAVE
WILL PUSH THE WAVE IN THE GULF OUT OF THE AREA SATURDAY. A STRONG
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE BERING SEA BY SATURDAY AND
DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW OVER THE EASTERN BERING BY SUNDAY. PATTERN GAINS
MORE AMPLITUDE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...BLIZZARD WARNING 181 185
MARINE...STORM 3B 5A 5B 6B 12A
         GALE 2B 3A 3C 6A 8 12A1 12B 15
FIRE WEATHER...NONE

JN NOV 04

In the hours before

Local storm report, Nov 8, 1:21 PM AST, 4 hours 35 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
121 PM AST MON NOV 08 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 AM     HEAVY SNOW       S SEWARD                60.11N 149.39W
11/08/2004  17.0 INCH                           AK   CO-OP OBSERVER

            STORM TOTAL FROM LATE ON NOV 6TH THROUGH AFTERNOON OF NOV
            7TH. ADDITIONALLY MOOSE PASS ONLY RECEIVED 5 TO 6 INCHES
            OF SNOW ON THE 7TH.

&&

DV

Event by event

2 blizzard. Local standard time, as filed.

Blizzard, Eastern Aleutians

When: November 8, 5:56 PM AST to 9:30 PM AST
Where: Eastern Aleutians forecast zone
Reported by: AWOS,ASOS,MESONET,ETC

Blizzard, Alaska Peninsula

When: November 8, 6:53 PM AST to 9:30 PM AST
Where: Alaska Peninsula forecast zone
Reported by: AWOS,ASOS,MESONET,ETC

What these are

Blizzard: Sustained winds or frequent gusts of 35 mph or more with falling or blowing snow that cuts visibility below a quarter mile for three hours or longer.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Alaska in 2004 Every state in 2004 This day in weather history Warnings in Alaska, November 2004

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5426796, 5426795.