Strong Wind in Alaska, June 17, 2004

NORTH ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
600 AM ADT THU JUN 17 2004

.DISCUSSION...

.ALOFT...HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM EAST
PACIFIC TO SOUTHEAST ALASKA TO BEAUFORT SEA WILL EXPAND INTO A
CLOSED HIGH WITH CENTER OVER NORTHEASTERN GULF BY SAT NIGHT.
FURTHER PROGRESS OF THE HIGHS EXPANSION OVER NORTHERN ALASKA...AS
FORECAST BY PREVIOUS MODEL RUN...WILL NOW BE HAMPERED BY LOWS
ROTATING NORTH AND EAST AROUND THE HIGHS PERIMETER. THE FIRST LOW
WILL MOVE NORTH OVER THE WEST COAST TODAY AND TONIGHT THEN EAST
ALONG 75N FRI. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE NORTH ALONG THE WEST COAST
SAT NIGHT AND SUN THEN EAST OVER THE BROOKS RANGE SUN NIGHT
THROUGH MON.

.SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING ALOFT OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF
OF ALASKA WILL EXTEND VERTICALLY TO THE SURFACE. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL EXPAND TO COVER ALL OF NORTHERN ALASKA ON SAT. LOWS WILL MOVE
NORTH OVER THE WEST COAST UNDERNEATH UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE. ON
SUN LOW PRESSURE WILL FORM OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR THEN MOVE
EAST INTO CANADA MON. THE CONFIDENCE LEVEL BEYOND SAT IS LOW.
MODEL CONSISTENCY FROM RUN TO RUN WILL HAVE TO BE IMPROVE BEFORE A
HIGHER LEVEL CAN BE ATTAINED.

.NORTH SLOPE...HIGH BUILDING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF ALASKA
AND LOW MOVING NORTH ALONG THE WEST COAST TO THE ARCTIC WILL
PRODUCE AN INCREASING SOUTHWEST THEN WEST FLOW FROM TONIGHT
THROUGH FRI. ON FRI AS THE LOW MOVES EAST ALONG 75N THERE COULD BE
FAIRLY STRONG WINDS APPROACHING POSSIBLE GALE LEVELS FOR MARINE
AREA 11B FROM CAPE HALKEET TO DEMARCATION POINT. THIS WILL BE
SHORT LIVED HOWEVER AS THE LOW MOVES RAPIDLY EAST. FROM THAT POINT
ON WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT. ANY RAIN WITH THE LOW WILL BE
LIGHT.

.WEST COAST...RADAR AT NOME HAS SHOWN A LOT OF LIGHT RETURNS OVER
NIGHT. THESE RETURNS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AS LOW PRESSURE
WEAKENS AND MOVES NORTH. A BREAK IN THE CLOUDS SHOULD OCCUR FRI AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE INTERIOR THEN ANOTHER LOW WILL BRING
MAINLY JUST CLOUDS TO THE AREA FRI NIGHT. THE HIGH OVER THE
INTERIOR WILL LIKELY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP MOST RAIN OUT OF THE
PICTURE. SOME CLOUDS BUT VIRTUALLY NO RAIN WILL REMAIN IN THE
PICTURE THROUGH MON. WINDS DIRECTIONS WILL BE CONTROLLED BY THE
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE INTERIOR AND LOW PRESSURE TO THE WEST.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS.

.INTERIOR...CHINOOK WINDS OVER THE ALASKA RANGE WILL DIMINISH FRI
AS AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE NORTHEASTERN GULF CHANGES THE
WINDS DIRECTION TO SOUTHWEST. SAT WILL BE A VERY WARM DAY FOR
NEARLY ALL OF THE INTERIOR. TEMPERATURES OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
INTERIOR WILL CONTINUE VERY WARM THROUGH THE WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN INTERIOR WILL COOL SUN AS LOWS MOVE
EAST ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA.

.HYDRO...NO SIGNIFICANT ISSUES.

.FIRE WEATHER...
RED FLAG WARNING FOR HIGH WIND FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
    ZONE 223 DELTANA AND TANANA FLATS.
    ZONE 225 DENALI.
    ZONE 226 EASTERN ALASKA RANGE.

.AFG...WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
    ZONE 225 DENALI.
    ZONE 226 EASTERN ALASKA RANGE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AREA 10B WALES TO CAPE LISBURNE.
         SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AREA 11A CAPE LISBURNE TO CAPE
          HALKETT.

DA JUN 04