Funnel Cloud in Alaska, July 21, 2004

NORTH ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
215 PM ADT WED JUL 21 2004

.DISCUSSION...

MODELS HANDLING THE SHORT TERM MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW IN THE
NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA PRETTY WELL THIS AFTERNOON. THE CONSENSUS
IS TO BRING THE 558 DM LOW CLOSE TO KODIAK ISLAND BY THURSDAY
MORNING.  THIS WILL DO TWO THINGS. ONE IS TO PINCH THE RIDGE OVER
THE INTERIOR WITH THE EAST HALF MOVING INTO CANADA AND THE WESTERN
PORTION SETTLING OVER THE WESTERN COAST AND BERING SEA. THE OTHER
IS TO ALLOW A LOWERING OF HEIGHTS OVER THE INTERIOR FOR ABOUT 48
HOURS UNTIL THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK IN. SEVERAL SHORT WAVES WILL
ROTATE AROUND THE UPPER LOW AND MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR OVER THE
NEXT 48 HOURS ALLOWING FOR AN INCREASED CHANCE OF CONVECTION. A
ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE ARCTIC COAST UNTIL AT LEAST THE
WEEKEND.

AT THE SURFACE...A THERMAL LOW OVER THE INTERIOR COMBINED WITH
PASSING SHORT WAVES WILL ENHANCE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY
OVER HIGHER TERRAIN THIS EVENING. PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS ARE
IN EXCESS OF 1.2 INCHES SO ANY THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN HEAVY
DOWNPOURS. LIGHTNING WILL CONTINUE TO BE A CONCERN. CONVECTION IS
DEVELOPING OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS AS YESTERDAY ALONG THE STEESE
HIGHWAY BETWEEN TWELVEMILE SUMMIT AND EAGLE SUMMIT. FLASH FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TODAY IN THIS AREA.

THE WEST COAST WILL REMAIN QUIET AS HIGH PRESSURE PARKS ITSELF
OVER THE REGION.  THERE WILL BE AREAS OF FOG NEAR THE COAST AND
THIS SHOWS UP WELL ON THE VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGE.

PERSISTENCE WILL ALSO BE THE RULE ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST WHERE
SURFACE  WINDS HAVE RETURNED TO A NORMAL EASTERLY FLOW. AS HAS
BEEN THE CASE FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS...PATCHY FOG POPS UP AT
SCATTERED TIMES ALONG COASTAL LOCATIONS.

.HYDRO...ANY HEAVY RAIN HAS BEEN VERY LOCALIZED BUT WITH HIGH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH
CONVECTION THAT OCCURS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ANY LARGE SCALE
RISES WILL BE MINIMAL.

.FIRE WEATHER...INCREASED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL RESULT IN
NUMEROUS LIGHTNING STRIKES WITH ONLY ONLY LOCALIZED AREAS OF HEAVY
RAIN. PREVAILING WINDS WILL HAVE A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT BUT OUTFLOW
FROM THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY MAY BRIEFLY CAUSE A SHIFT IN WINDS
AWAY FROM EACH CELL.

.AFG WATCH/WARNING/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...DENSE SMOKE ADVISORY ZONES 220 AND 224
         DENSE FOG ADVISORY ZONE 204
MARINE...NONE

AT JUL 04

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
400 PM ADT WED JUL 21 2004

AKZ223-220100-
DELTANA AND TANANA FLATS-
INCLUDING...SALCHA...DELTA JUNCTION...FORT GREELY...HARDING/BIRCH
LAKE...DRY CREEK...DOT LAKE...HEALY LAKE
400 PM ADT WED JUL 21 2004

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM MOVING TOWARD THE RICHARDSON HIGHWAY NEAR
SALCHA...

AT 355 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 8 MILES SOUTH OF SALCHA. THIS STORM IS MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH AND WILL CROSS THE RICHARDSON HIGHWAY SOUTH OF
SALCHA BY 445 PM.

THIS THUNDERSTORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...GUSTY
WINDS TO 35 MPH AND DEADLY LIGHTNING. HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO CAUSE
PONDING OF WATER ON ROADS.

IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING IN THIS AREA OVER THE NEXT HOUR...PLEASE
USE CAUTION AND DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS A FLOODED ROAD AS IT ONLY
TAKES A FEW INCHES OF WATER TO MOVE A VEHICLE.

TYBURSKI