Blizzard and High Wind in Alaska, December 20 to 22, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION SOUTHWEST ALASKA
1200 PM AST MON DEC 20 2004

.DISCUSSION...
500MB.
RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE NE PACIFIC TO OVER THE CENTER BERING
SEA SHIFTS EAST TO ALONG 138W TUE NIGHT. CUT OFF CENTER SOUTH OF THE
CHAIN IS FORCED NORTH AS RIDGE TO WEST BUILDS IN RESPONSE TO
DEVELOPING CENTER WHICH MOVES SOUTH TO OVER THE SEA OF OKHOTSK WED.
BY WED MORNING THE MEAN LONG WAVE POSITION EXTENDS FROM 4950M CENTER
JUST NORTH OF THE CHUKCHI SEA SOUTH TO ALONG 168W. AT THAT TIME
STRONG DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW SETS UP OVER MUCH OF THE MAINLAND.

MODEL INITIALIZATIONS ON LOW COMPLEX SOUTH ARE NOT PICKING UP DEGREE
OF COMPLEXITY...BUT GENERAL PATTERN AND GRADIENTS ARE REASONABLE. THE
MESO ETA/UKMET OVERALL WERE THE BEST AND WILL BE USED IN FORECAST
PRODUCTION. DEVELOPING CENTER MOVES OUT OF LOW COMPLEX AND MOVES TO
NEAR COLD BAY WED MORNING. CENTER THEN ENDS UP IN BRISTOL BAY WED
AFTERNOON. THE GFS MOVES CENTER TOO QUICKLY INLAND...PREFER THE
SLOWER UKMET/ETA SOLUTIONS. STRONG NE WINDS TO WARNING LEVELS ARE
STILL EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS THROUGH TONIGHT
AND INTO TUESDAY. WINDS TO A LESSER EXTENT(HIGH END ADVISORY) CAN BE
EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE AK PEN..REMAINING
ALEUTIANS...PRIBILOFS..AND SW AK COASTS. GAP WINDS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
ALASKA SHOULD MOVE INTO THE UPPER ADVISORY AREA TUE NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE CENTER MOVES TOWARD BRISTOL BAY. WILL LOOK INTO HIGH WIND
WATCH POTENITAL.

.AER/ALU...WATCH/WARNING SUMMARY
PUBLIC...WIND WARNING ZONES 185 AND 187. WINTER STORM WATCH ZONE 145.
MARINE...SEE MARINES.

RMC DEC 04