Hail in Alabama, May 17, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
244 AM CDT MON MAY 17 2004

.SHORT TERM...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A VERY ACTIVE WEST-SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT COMING OUT OF TEXAS. THIS WAS MENTIONED ON THE UPDATE LAST
NIGHT AND WE SHARE THE CONCERN OF THE EVENING TEAM FOR THAT FEATURE
WHICH IS CO-LOCATED WITH ANOTHER INTERESTING FEATURE...A POTENTIAL
VORTICITY ANOMALY WHICH APPEARS OVER THE SIERRA MADRE AND FORECAST BY
THE GFS TO MOVE OVER THE WEST CENTRAL GULF BY TUESDAY...GYRATING
EASTWARD TO REACH FLORIDA FRIDAY. IT DOES NOT APPEAR MUCH IN THE
SURFACE PRESSURE FIELD BUT A LOW DOES APPEAR IN THE 500 MB
GEOPOTENTIAL FIELDS...AND THE LAPSE RATE ASSOCIATED THEREWITH IS
CONSIDERABLY MORE UNSTABLE. THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS SOUTHERN PLAINS
SHORTWAVE ADVERTISED IN EARLIER MODEL RUNS TO MOVE JUST NORTH OF THE
FA TODAY AND HOOK UP WITH THIS OTHER LITTLE FEATURE FROM MEXICO TO
LIFT OUT AND CAUSE US SOME MORE PRECIP NOT EXPECTED IN THE MAV
GUIDANCE IS NOT LOST UPON US...BUT FOR NOW WILL EXTEND LOW RANGE
LIKELY POPS SOUTHWARD AND STAY NON-CATEGORICAL. MODELS SHOW THE WEAK
LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF ASSOCIATED THEREWITH WOULD BE EMBEDDED IN
THE RIDGE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE SHORT TERM INTO THE
EXTENDED...MOVING EAST. FOR NOW THE NEW MODEL RUNS ARE IN LINE AS
SHOWN BY THE PROGRESSIVELY MORE DRY ENSEMBLE PLOTS. PW STILL 1.5 TO
1.6...PRETTY RESPECTABLE FROM WHERE WE SIT. AGAIN EXPECT PATCHY DENSE
FOG OVERNIGHT IN PLACES WHICH GET A SOAKING...AND HANGING ON TO THAT
WORDING IN ZONES.

&&

.EXTENDED...LITTLE CHANGE WARRANTED AS UPPER RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN
STATES DOMINATES. SURFACE HIGH NOSING WEST INTO THE PIEDMONT AND
GMEX. WEAK SHEAR AND LOCAL EFFECTS KEEP THIS A SEABREEZE DOMINATED
AFFAIR. THE SAWTOOTH COASTAL ENSEMBLES ARE INDICATIVE OF THIS.

&&

.MARINE...THE STUBBORN SURFACE RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN A GRIP ON THE
MARINE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY AND MAINTAIN A GENERALLY LIGHT ONSHORE
FLOW OF GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS. WILL NEED TO ADD A SUBTLE INCREASE IN
WINDS TO AROUND 15 KNOTS FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS DUE TO
THE SEABREEZE CIRCULATION. THE LONG FETCH OF THE LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SEAS GENERALLY AROUND 3 FEET THROUGH MUCH OF
THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE...LIGHT LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE GULF...WITH INCREASING TEMPS AS
LOW LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS WEST FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. RH SHOULDNT
BE A PROBLEM BUT...WATCHING IT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY TEMPS / POPS...

MOBILE     81 68 81 67 / 60 30 50 10
PENSACOLA  81 69 81 68 / 60 30 50 10
DESTIN     81 68 81 68 / 60 30 50 10
EVERGREEN  82 65 82 64 / 60 30 60 10
WAYNESBORO 80 66 80 65 / 60 30 70 20
CAMDEN     82 65 82 64 / 60 30 60 20

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
604 AM CDT MON MAY 17 2004

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-171703-
BUTLER AL-CHOCTAW AL-CLARKE AL-COASTAL ESCAMBIA FL-
COASTAL OKALOOSA FL-COASTAL SANTA ROSA FL-CONECUH AL-COVINGTON AL-
CRENSHAW AL-ESCAMBIA AL-GEORGE MS-GREENE MS-INLAND ESCAMBIA FL-
INLAND OKALOOSA FL-INLAND SANTA ROSA FL-LOWER BALDWIN AL-
LOWER MOBILE AL-MONROE AL-PERRY MS-STONE MS-UPPER BALDWIN AL-
UPPER MOBILE AL-WASHINGTON AL-WAYNE MS-WILCOX AL-
604 AM CDT MON MAY 17 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL INTERACT WITH THE SEA BREEZE AND
RESULT IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINGER INTO THE EVENING
HOURS ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL.  ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE SUCH THAT
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.  ONSHORE WINDS OVER
THE MARINE AREA WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS IS NOT
ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.