Drought in Alabama, March 1 to 31, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
253 PM CST SUN 29 FEB 2004

.SHORT TERM...OVER THE NEXT 18 HOURS OR SO...THE FORECAST AREA WILL
BE CAUGHT UP IN THE REGION BETWEEN THE DEEP SURFACE LOW OVER THE
SOUTH PLAINS AND THE SUTFACE HIGH JUST OFF THE EAST COAST. THE LOW
LEVEL CONVERGENCE HAS MADE FOR CLOUDY SKIES...A MODERATE WIND AND
POSSIBLY A FEW PASSING SHOWERS...RADAR IS SHOWING SOME WEAK RETURNS
MOVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ALONG THE MS/AL LINE. PQL HAS HAD A
SPRINKEL THIS AFTERNOON. ALSO EXPECTING FOG TONIGHT...MORE LIKELY
ALONG THE COAST AS THE WARMER MOIST AIR MOVES OVER THE COLDER
NEARSHORE WATERS...MAY NOT GET AS THICK AS EARLIER THOUGHT DUE TO
WIND...PATCHY FOG INLAND. WINDS WILL EASE UP MONDAY AFTERNOON AS
GRADIENT ERELAXES WITH SURFACE LOW MOVING OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AND
SURFACE RIDGE  BUILDING WEST ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS. SHOWER
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE NIL AS FORECAST SOUNDING SHOW RATHER LARGE
INVERSION...COULD STILL SEE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THE MOISTURE
TRAPPED UNDER THE INVERSION MONDAY MORNING. NORTHERN SECTIONS  MAY
SEE SOME PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AND WEDNEASDAY AFTERNOON AS
FRONT/BOUNDAY SLOWS AND STOPS ACROSS THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IN THE
NEAR ZONAL WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.EXTENDED...CHANCE OF RAIN UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE FRONT IS
FINALLY PUSHED ACROSS FORECAST AREA. DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM
FORECAST TO BE WELL OFF TO THE NORTH BUT PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ARE APPROACHING 2 INCHES THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...FOR NOW A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SUFFICE. LAST NIGHTS GFS STALLS THE
FRONT IN THIS ARE AND KEEPS THE RAIN INTO SATURDAY. WILL NOT ADD
RAIN TO NEXT WEEKEND UNTIL SEE ANOTHER MODEL RUN.

&&

.MARINE...GRADIENT TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING WILL JUSTIFY NEED TO
CONTINUE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES. CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ARE AT SCA
MOST AREAS WITH 9 FOOT SEAS AT 42040. WINDS COME BACK UP THURSDAY
AS NEXT SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY.

&&

.FIRE...A LITTLE BREEZY NEXT 18 HOURS OR SO BUT SURFACE HUMIDITY
WILL BE ABOVE WATCH/WARNING THRESHHOLDS THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY TEMPS / POPS...

MOBILE     57 74 58 76 / 30 30 00 20
PENSACOLA  58 70 60 74 / 30 30 00 20
DESTIN     56 67 62 72 / 30 30 10 10
EVERGREEN  51 73 56 77 / 20 20 00 20
WAYNESBORO 57 73 56 74 / 30 30 20 30
CAMDEN     50 74 56 74 / 30 30 00 30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...SCA TONIGHT GMZ630-650-670.
FL...SCA TONIGHT GMZ655-675.
MS...NONE.

&&

 11

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
530 AM CST SUN FEB 29 2004

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-291800-
BALDWIN COASTAL-BALDWIN INLAND-BUTLER-CHOCTAW-CLARKE-CONECUH-
COVINGTON-CRENSHAW-ESCAMBIA-ESCAMBIA COASTAL-ESCAMBIA INLAND-GEORGE-
GREENE-MOBILE COASTAL-MOBILE INLAND-MONROE-OKALOOSA COASTAL-
OKALOOSA INLAND-PERRY-SANTA ROSA COASTAL-SANTA ROSA INLAND-STONE-
WASHINGTON-WAYNE-WILCOX-
530 AM CST SUN FEB 29 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE EAST BY
TONIGHT...ALLOWS A RETURN OF GULF MOISTURE TO OVERRIDE COOL SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR THE COAST AND OVER BAYS...SUPPORTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF FOG. FOG COULD BECOME LOCALLY DENSE AT TIMES...WITH
VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO LESS THAN A MILE.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS WILL NOT BE
REQUIRED THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID WEEK. A COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH THE AREA ON THURSDAY...BRINGING A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS.