Damaging Wind in Alabama, July 25, 2004

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
240 PM CDT SUN JUL 25 2004

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS
SHOWS FRONT STILL WELL NORTH OF AREA NEAR ALABAMA AND TENNESSEE
BORDER.  THERE IS A WEAK BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTHWEST THROUGH
NORTHEAST OF CWA.  THIS IS SERVING AS A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON.  LIKE YESTERDAY WILL ADJUST POPS FOR
TONIGHT ACCORDING TO LATEST RADAR PICTURE BEFORE ZONES GO OUT. GFS
SEEMS TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN. EXPECT WEAK
BOUNDARY TO REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPS ACROSS MIDWEST AND MOVES EAST MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.  THIS WILL PICK UP THE NORTHERN PART OF BOUNDARY AND PUSH
IT NORTHEAST TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES EAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES WILL MOVE AROUND
THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WHICH WILL ENHANCE THE CHANCE OF RAIN ACROSS
THE AREA.  WILL LEAVE IN A CHANCE OF RW/TRW DURING THE OVERNIGHT AS
PIECES OF ENERGY WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FLOW ALSO DURING THE
OVERNIGHT AND MAY TRIGGER A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.
HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE LIKELY DURING THE HEAT OF THE
DAY.  ON WEDNESDAY THE BOUNDARY PUSHES JUST A LITTLE EAST OF CWA
WITH A LITTLE DRIER AIR FILTERING INTO OUR NORTHWEST ZONES.  THE DRY
AIR WILL STALL OVER THE CENTRAL PART OF THE AREA AND WILL KEEP IN AT
LEAST A CHANCE OR RW/TRW THERE ON WEDNESDAY.  PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES START OUT AROUND 2 INCHES TONIGHT AND CREEP UP A LITTLE
MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY AND THEN DROP A LITTLE ON WEDNESDAY.  WITH
SUCH HIGH PWS COULD SEE SOME HEAVY RAINS MONDAY AND TUESDAY
AFTERNOONS ACROSS PARTS OF CWA. TEMPS WILL BE A LITTLE COOLER NEXT
TWO DAYS WITH RAIN AND CLOUDS.  HEAT INDICES SHOULD ALSO BE A LITTLE
LOWER.

&&

.EXTENDED (THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...MODELS ARE BACKING OFF ON
MOVING DRY AIR THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA ON THURSDAY.  THE DRIER AIR
MAKES IT THROUGH PART OF CWA THEN MOISTURE RETURNS UNDER SOUTHEAST
FLOW LATE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.  WILL LEAVE IN CHANCE OF MOSTLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  TEMPS WILL
REMAIN GENERALLY IN THE LOW 90S TO LOW 70S RANGE.

&&

MARINE...DO NOT PLAN ANY MAJOR CHANGES.  GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.  AS USUAL...WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE HIGHER NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY TEMPS / POPS...

MOBILE     76 89 74 89 / 30 70 40 50
PENSACOLA  77 88 76 88 / 30 70 40 50
DESTIN     77 88 76 88 / 30 70 40 50
EVERGREEN  73 88 72 88 / 30 70 40 50
WAYNESBORO 73 89 71 90 / 30 70 40 40
CAMDEN     73 88 72 87 / 30 70 40 50

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.

&&

01/16

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
541 AM CDT SUN JUL 25 2004

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-251700-
BUTLER AL-CHOCTAW AL-CLARKE AL-COASTAL ESCAMBIA FL-
COASTAL OKALOOSA FL-COASTAL SANTA ROSA FL-CONECUH AL-COVINGTON AL-
CRENSHAW AL-ESCAMBIA AL-GEORGE MS-GREENE MS-INLAND ESCAMBIA FL-
INLAND OKALOOSA FL-INLAND SANTA ROSA FL-LOWER BALDWIN AL-
LOWER MOBILE AL-MONROE AL-PERRY MS-STONE MS-UPPER BALDWIN AL-
UPPER MOBILE AL-WASHINGTON AL-WAYNE MS-WILCOX AL-
541 AM CDT SUN JUL 25 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI AND THE EXTREME WESTERN PORTION OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY.  ALTHOUGH SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED.  NO OTHER FORMS OF
HAZARDOUS WEATHER ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
REGION AGAIN ON MONDAY...BUT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT
EXPECTED.  NO OTHER FORMS OF HAZARDOUS WEATHER ARE EXPECTED AT THIS
TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS IS NOT
ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
146 PM CDT SUN JUL 25 2004

ALZ054-251915-
WILCOX-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CAMDEN...
146 PM CDT SUN JUL 25 2004

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS BEING DETECTED OVER WILCOX COUNTY...

AT 144 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM NEAR ROCKWEST.  THE THUNDERSTORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
COAL BLUFF AND YELLOW BLUFF THROUGH 215 PM CDT.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE SMALL HAIL...DANGEROUS CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING... AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH...WHICH COULD
DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL
OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HAS
PASSED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
230 PM CDT SUN JUL 25 2004

ALZ053-054-252000-
CLARKE-WILCOX-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GROVE HILL...
230 PM CDT SUN JUL 25 2004

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM IS BEING DETECTED OVER CLARKE AND WILCOX
COUNTIES...

AT 224 PM CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM NEAR NETTLEBORO...AND MOVING SOUTH AT 5 MPH.

THE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND...
DICKINSON...CHANCE AND SCYRENE THROUGH 300 PM CDT.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE SMALL HAIL...DANGEROUS CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING... AND WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH...WHICH COULD
DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL
OBJECTS. SEEK SHELTER IN A SAFE HOME OR BUILDING UNTIL THE STORM HAS
PASSED.

THIS STORM COULD PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES IN A
SHORT PERIOD OF TIME...RESULTING IN BRIEF PONDING OF WATER AROUND LOW
LYING AREAS. REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO WATER COVERED
ROADWAYS. THE DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW A SAFE CROSSING.