Hail in Wyoming, April 29, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
145 PM MDT TUE APR 29 2003

SHORT TERM CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST WY PLAINS AND THE WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING OVER THE LARAMIE VALLEY...THE
SOUTH LARAMIE RANGE AND ADJACENT PARTS OF LARAMIE COUNTY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON.  STORMS HAVE BEEN SUPPORTED BY GOOD DIFLUENCE ALOFT PER
12Z UPPER AIR MAPS.  WILL BRING THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EAST
INTO THE PANHANDLE DURING THE EVENING AS MID LEVEL JET NOSES UNDER
UPPER JET...WHICH PAIRS UP NICELY WITH 12Z MESO-ETA VERTICAL
VELOCITY FIELD.  TAKING CUE FROM LAST NIGHT WHEN ALL BUT A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MADE IT TO ABOUT MIDNIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING.
TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT BASED HEAVILY ON LAST NIGHTS
READINGS...FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY AS
WINDS SWITCH TO THE NORTHWEST.

IN LONGER TERM...MODELS NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT STARTING WED NIGHT
AND CONTG INTO THU.  ETA TAKES SIG PART OF SYSTEM EWD INTO CNTRL
PLAINS...LEAVING A FLAT SLIGHTLY BLDG UPR RDG IN ITS WAKE OVER
REGION...RESULTING IN DRIER/WARMER CONDITIONS.  AVN HOLDS ONTO A
BROAD UPR SYSTEM LINGERING THRU THU WITH A COUPLE OF WEAK UPR LOWS
MOVING ACROSS THE REGION...FINALLY EXITING THU EVENG...WITH MUCHO
MSTR/PCPN LINGERING AROUND.  BASED ON PAST SYSTEMS THIS SPRING...
NEITHER SOLUTION WILL BE TOTALLY RIGHT...SO WILL GO WITH A BLEND...
WHICH IS PRETTY MUCH WHAT WE ALREADY HAVE GOING.  WILL HAVE HIGHEST
POPS ACROSS THE NRN PART OF THE AREA WED NIGHT/THU.  AVN LIKELY TOO
COOL ALSO...BUT EVEN ETA SUGGESTS ENUF COLD AIR BY SUNRISE THU FOR
MIX OF RAIN/SNOW 5500-6500 FEET...MSTLY ALL SNOW ABOVE 6500 FT.
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A NEED FOR ANY WINTER HILITE AT THIS TIME...
EXPECT AMOUNTS TO REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA...ALTHO NRN LAR RNG MAY GET
CLOSE.  DRYG ON FRI INTO MIDDAY SAT...EXCEPT FOR SOME LATE DAY SHWRS
AND TSTMS FRI AFTN/EVENG.  NEXT UPR SYSTEM TO BE BOTTOMING OUT ON
SAT AFTN ACRS NV...AND THEN LFTG NEWD FOR ANOTHER DECENT CHC OF PCPN
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN NGT/MON.  BLV MRF A LTL TOO STG WITH UPR LOW ON
SUN EVENG...ECMWF/UKMET/GFS ENSEMBLES SUGGEST FTR WILL LIFT OUT
QUICKER THAN GFS OPERTNL RUN AND NOT BE AS COOL/CLSD OFF.  HENCE
WILL KEEP TUE DRY FOR NOW BHND SYS.

.CYS...
WY...NONE.
NE...NONE.

NEZ001>003-019>021-054-055-WYZ059>070-301145-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
330 PM MDT TUE APR 29 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING AND THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL...GUSTY WINDS AND
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
CORNER OF WYOMING THROUGH EARLY EVENING.  THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE INTO THE SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...MAINLY FROM
SCOTTSBLUFF TO SIDNEY AFTER 600 PM MDT.

THESE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS ARE PART OF A BROADER AREA OF SHOWERS
AND WEAKER THUNDERSTORMS.  THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE BY MIDNIGHT...BUT NUMEROUS SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT.

OTHER SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL WYOMING AND THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEAST WYOMING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL PERSIST OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND THE
WESTERN NEBRASKA PANHANDLE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  RAIN MAY
MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO LIGHT SNOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT ABOVE 6000 FEET
OVERNIGHT. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS ON THURSDAY.

A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNS TO THE PLAINS OF
SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND PARTS OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE FROM SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FROM THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF
WYOMING INTO THE SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA PANHANDLE.

BANN
WCJIN-WYSE-WYNE