Heavy Snow in Wisconsin, March 3, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
330 AM CST MON MAR 3 2003

FCST CHALLENGE NEXT 24 HRS CENTERS ON SNOW POTENTIAL FOR THE FCST AREA.
RADAR THIS AM SHOWS LAKE MICH BAND JUST OFFSHORE OF THE DOOR PENINSULA
AND GRAD SHIFT NEWD.  THIS BAND MAY WEAKEN AS SFC WNDS GRAD SHIFT SE
THEN S TDY AND H8 WINDS WESTERLY THIS AM.  BUT THIS BAND ORIGINATED FROM
A CONVERGENCE ZONE OVER LAKE MICH...AND THESE TYPE OF MESOSCALE FEATURES
CAN BE INTENSE IF WINDS ARE LIGHT WHICH ALLOWS THE BAND TO STALL OVER A
LOCATION.  DOOR COUNTY MAY BE IMPACTED THIS AM.

OTHERWISE THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM WILL SPREAD SNOW OVER THE FCST AREA
TDY WITH THE AVN/GFS BEING THE FASTER MODEL.  MODELS IN SOME AGREEMENT
OF A DIMINISHED TREND IN THE PCPN TONIGHT AS UPR JET ENERGY AND ISENT
LIFT SHIFT EAST.

FOR TUESDAY...AVN/GFS MODEL MUCH FURTHER NORTH WITH BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
SFC WAVE.  AS RESULT WILL SPREAD SNOW BACK INTO AT LEAST THE SOUTH HALF
OF THE FCST AREA.  ETA AND NGM SHIFT BAROCLINIC ZONE SOUTH OF THE FCST
AREA AND GEN DRY AND COLD.  HOWEVER ALL MODELS INDICATE LFQ OF JETLET TO
AFFECT AT LEAST THE SOUTH HALF OF THE CWA AND THEREFORE WILL LEAVE
CURRENT PCPN MENTION OF CHC OF S-...AND SW-- REST OF FCST AREA DUE TO
CAA AND BAROCLINIC ZONE.

MAIN JET ACTIVITY EVENTUALLY SHIFTS SOUTH OF WI BY WED AND THEREFORE
BACK TO A COLDER DRIER REGIME FOR AT LEAST MIDWEEK.  BUT NEXT SYSTEM
WITH WAA ISENT LIFT ARRIVES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.  NO
OTHER CHGS TO LATER PDS AT THIS TIME.

.GRB...NONE.

HELMAN
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074-041200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
600 AM CST MON MAR 3 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION TODAY INTO THIS
EVENING WILL SPREAD SNOW ACROSS THE AREA.  THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO CENTRAL AND NORTHCENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS MORNING...AND THEN MAINLY
IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS OVER NORTHEAST WISCONSIN. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION
OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE BY EVENING.  LAKE EFFECT SNOWS ALONG DOOR
COUNTY...FROM WHITEFISH DUNES STATE PARK TO WASHINGTON ISLAND...MAY
PRODUCE LOCALLY HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS BY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH OF WISCONSIN ON TUESDAY MAY
BRING SNOW TO EAST CENTRAL WISCONSIN. THE CHANCE FOR MORE SNOW CAN BE
EXPECTED FROM THURSDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED FOR SNOWFALL MEASUREMENTS.

HELMAN
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB