West Virginia, 2003

Flash Flood in West Virginia, September 21, 2003

September 21, 2003 · NWS RLX · 1 event in 1 county or zone

1 flash flood, as filed by the National Weather Service.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

  • Tornadoes
  • Tropical storms and surge
  • Floods
  • Wind
  • Hail
  • Winter weather
  • Heat and drought
  • Cold
  • Fire, smoke and dust
  • Marine and coastal
  • Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
$1,000
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
1

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Charleston, WV wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 21, 2:00 PM EST, 3 hours 30 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 21, 2:00 PM EST, 3 hours 30 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
530 PM  SUN SEP 21 2003

********************************************************************
530 PM  SUN SEP 21 2003

UPDATED TO INCLUDE ISOLATED THUNDER IN NORTHEASTERN WEST VIRGINIA
THIS EVENING.

JMV
********************************************************************
300 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2003

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...
LOW CLOUDS HAVE FINALLY CLEARED ALL AREAS...BUT THE APPROACHING
CIRRUS SHIELD IS RAPIDLY SPREADING ACROSS THE REGION.  MOISTURE WILL
BE MOVING NORTHWARD THIS EVENING OUT AHEAD OF A STRONG FRONTAL
BOUNDARY...CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
THICKEN OVERNIGHT...WITH A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE BEFORE
SUNRISE.  TOMORROW...THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.  HAVE
RAISED POPS TO CATEGORICAL AS MOISTURE SHOULD BE DEEP AND THE FRONT
SHOULD PROVIDE LIFT AREA WIDE.  QPF SHOULD BE ON THE RANGE OF A HALF
TO 3/4 OF AN INCH WHICH SHOULD ELIMINATE THE THREAT FOR FLOODING AS
THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS AT A GOOD PACE.  CLOUDS SHOULD ELIMINATE MOST
OF THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER...BUT AGAIN WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS
POSSIBILITY AS WELL.

FOR TEMPERATURES...HAVE GONE ON THE WARM SIDE OF THE GFS/FWC NUMBERS
TONIGHT AS CLOUDS AND DEWPOINT IN THE LOW TO MID 60S SHOULD KEEP
TEMPS US SOME.  FOR TOMORROW...CLOUDS AND RAIN SHOULD KEEP TEMPS
DOWN CLOSE TO THE MAV NUMBERS...SO HAVE LEANED THAT DIRECTION.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF PASSING COLD FRONT.  FRONT
TO BE ALONG PKB-CRW LINE AROUND 00Z TUES AND EXITING THE MOUNTAINS
BY 06Z.  KEPT LIKELY POPS AHEAD OF FRONT AND QUICKLY DECREASE TO
CHANCE BEHIND IT.  DRY WEATHER EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.  HELD A BIT MORE CLOUDS ON TUESDAY AT LEAST
ACROSS NORTH AND IN MOUNTAINS DUE TO COLD AIR ADVECTION THINKING
THERE WILL STILL BE SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY.  CLOUDS
SHOULD DISSIPATE BY EVENING ALLOWING FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
TUESDAY NIGHT.

NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIP COMES LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT IN SOUTHEAST OHIO
AS MODELS CONTINUE TO SPEED UP FRONTAL TIMING.

THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
WILL SPEED COLD FRONT UP TO MOVE THROUGH ON THURSDAY AS IN TIMING BY
HPC. MODELS HAVE VERY COLD AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM. MODELS
ARE TYPICALLY TOO STRONG WITH COLD AIR PUSH AT THIS RANGE...SO WILL
TONE DOWN SLIGHTLY. A SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH ON SATURDAY...BUT
MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED. WILL KEEP DRY FOR NOW...BUT INCREASE THE
CLOUDS.

.RLX...
WV...NONE.
VA...NONE.
KY...NONE.
OH...NONE.

ESS/HC/RPY
********************************************************************
1025 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2003
AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND SOME SPOTTY DRIZZLE CONTINUES ACROSS EASTERN
KY NEWD INTO LEWIS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL WV. THE LATEST SATELLITE
IMAGES SHOWS THE EASTERN EDGE HAS BEGUN TO ERODE THE CLOUDS SO AS
MIXING INCREASES THIS MORNING WITH THE SUNSHINE...SHOULD SEE THE
CLOUDS DISSIPATE...FASTER THAN YESTERDAY.  WILL HOLD TEMPERATURE
FORECAST AS IS...A LITTLE FEARFUL THAT THE AREA WITH LOW CLOUDS MAY
STRUGGLE TO GET AS HIGH...BUT AS LONG AS THE SUN IS OUT BY EARLY
AFTERNOON...A QUICK RECOVERY SHOULD STILL BE POSSIBLE.  MOST OF THE
CHANGES TO THE TODAY PERIOD WILL BE TO CLEAN UP MORNING TYPE
WORDING.  OTHERWISE...WILL LEAVE THE REST OF THE FORECAST AS IS FOR
NOW.

ESS
********************************************************************
345 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2003

...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...
OLD FRONTAL ZONE AT 07Z RAN NE TO SW FROM NR DCA TO ROA TO TYS.
MOISTURE AT 4 TO 8 THOUSAND FEET TODAY ALONG AND N OF FRONTAL ZONE.
FIGURING ON LEAST CLOUDS IN SOUTHEAST OHIO.  A WEAK E AND SE LOW
LEVEL FLOW MAY CAUSE AN ISOLATED SHOWER TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON OVER
WV MOUNTAINS.  LOTS OF CIRRUS COMING OVER THE LOWER MOISTURE
AS DAY WEARS ON.

SE LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASING LATE TONIGHT...WITH DEEPER MOISTURE
MOVING OUT OF TN VALLEY.  CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT
RANGE TONIGHT.  BASING FORECAST FOR MONDAY WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AT
CRW AFTER DARK MONDAY NIGHT...SAY AROUND 03Z.  INCREASED
PROBABILITIES OF RAIN TO LIKELY WITH ABLE MOISTURE...SOME UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE...AND FRONT MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT FROM W TO E.
WITH INCREASING FLOW...FIGURING ORDER OF MAGNITUDE OF RAIN IN THE
HALF INCH TO INCH RANGE.  LOTS OF CLOUDS ON MONDAY SHOULD HOLD DOWN
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND LESSEN SHORT TERM INTENSITY OF RAIN A
BIT.  SO AT THIS TIME...NOT OVERLY CONCERN ABOUT ANY FLOOD
HAZARD.

WESTERLY FLOW ON TUESDAY SHOULD KEEP LOTS OF SUNSHINE AROUND FOR THE
FIRST DAY OF AUTUMN.  A COOL TUESDAY NIGHT SEEMS TO BE SETTING UP.

...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

MAIN QUESTION IS HANDLING OF COLD FRONT SLATED TO ARRIVE THURSDAY.
GFS HAS SPED UP APPROACH OF THIS FRONT...BRINGING IT MOSTLY ACROSS
CWA DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY.  CANADIAN SIDES WITH GFS...ECMWF IS
A BIT SLOWER.  LOOKS LIKE AN ANAFRONT SCENARIO WITH MOST PRECIP
BEHIND FRONT.  WILL HOLD OFF SPEEDING UP FRONT IN GRIDS FOR NOW...IN
DEFERENCE TO ISC...BUT DAY SHIFT WILL NEED TO LOOK AT THIS.

BATTY/CL
********************************************************************

855 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2003

EVENING UPDATE...STRATUS STARTING TO FORM UNDER INVERSION...SO WILL
ADD LOTS OF CLOUDS FOR MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT FOR SOUTHEAST
OHIO. POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT WILL BE LIMITED
BY CLOUD COVER.  OTHERWISE...MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ONLY TO TEMPERATURES.

JMV
********************************************************************
Hazardous weather outlook, Sep 21, 4:00 AM EST, 13 hours 30 minutes before
KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>040-046-047-211500-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
500 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEASTERN
OHIO...NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND MOST OF WEST
VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH SEVERE
LIMITS MONDAY AFTERNOON OR MONDAY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO...NORTHERN KENTUCKY...PLUS NORTHERN AND WESTERN COUNTIES OF
WEST VIRGINIA.  THE MOST LIKELY FEATURE WOULD BE BRIEF STRONG WIND
GUSTS.  HOWEVER...CLOUDS MAY BE THE LIMITING FACTOR FOR THE
INSTABILITY.
THE FASTER MOVEMENT OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REDUCE
THE THREAT OF FLOODING.

BATTY

The radar

The Charleston,WV radar (KRLX), 145 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:29 UTC.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.

Flash Flood, Upshur

When
September 21, 5:30 PM EST to 6:30 PM EST
Where
Upshur County, Queens
Property damage
$1,000
Reported by
LAW ENFORCEMENT
Coordinates
38.898, -80.233 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

A nearly stationary thunderstorm formed along the county border between Upshur and Randolph Counties. Near Laurel Run, rains of around 2 inches likely fell in one hour. Roads were flooded and slightly damaged. No dwellings were affected.

What these are

Flash Flood
Flooding that begins within six hours of the rain that causes it, or of a dam or levee failure or ice jam release, often with deadly speed.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in West Virginia in 2003Every state in 2003This day in weather historyWarnings in West Virginia, September 2003

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5368631.