Flash Flood and Hail in West Virginia, July 14, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
218 PM EDT MON JUL 14 2003

.TONIGHT AND TUESDAY...

CU FIELD WL GO AWAY IN 01-03Z PERIOD...OUTSIDE AN ISOLATED SHOWER IN
POCAHONTAS COUNTY...RADAR SCREEN HAS BEEN PRECIP FREE.  GIVEN
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILE AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT...KEPT SMALL
CHC IN MTNS THIS EVENING.

MORE OF A GRADIENT TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE FARTHER TO THE EAST
AND BL WINDS ARND 10KTS...SO OUTSIDE RIVER VALLEYS...DONT EXPECT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF BCFG.

FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST TOMORROW...ETA AND GFS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH SPEED AND TIME OF LATE AFTERNOON IN WESTERN
SECTIONS...ALTHOUGH DEEP MSTR STILL SOMEWHAT OF A QUESTION...SO
PLAYED SCHC POPS AT THIS TIME.

.TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...
USED GFS MODEL SOLUTION FOR ONSET OF PRECIP WHICH IS A BIT FASTER
THAN ETA.  LINGER SHOWERS IN EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES ESPECIALLY
AS FRONT GETS HUNG UP JUST SOUTH OF REGION INTO LATE WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THURSDAY.  FOLLOWED MAV GUIDANCE FOR EARLY
PERIODS.

.FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE CONTROLS OUR WEATHER FRIDAY WITH SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS.  FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA SATURDAY WILL CONTINUE THE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY AND
DOMINATE THE AREA INTO MONDAY.  TEMPERATURES ARE GOOD WITH SOME
MINOR TWEAKS.

.RLX...
WV...NONE.
VA...NONE.
KY...NONE.
OH...NONE.

29/DB/ELW
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1003 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2003

MOST OF MRNG FG HAS LIFTED OUTSIDE HEADWATERS OF GREENBRIER RIVER IN
POCAHONTAS CO.  CU FORMATIONS HAS COMMENCED WITH BKW AND EKN
REPORTING BASES OF 7-8KFT.  EXPECT THIS TREND TO CONT WITH WK ERLY
FLOW AND MSTR BLO 10KFT.  MODIFIED MRNG RAOB (80F/63F) FM RNK GIVES
SBCAPES ABV 2.0KJ/KG AND LI/S OF -6...SO KEPT THE SCHC MENTION.
PRECIP H20 SLIGHTLY ABV AN INCH...THUS NOT EXPECTING DOWNPOURS.
UPDATE OUT SHORTLY.

29
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257 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2003

TODAY AND TONIGHT...
SHORTWAVE THAT AIDED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF
MTNS LIFTING NORTHEAST OF REGION.  WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWING PLENTY
OF DRY AIR OVER OHIO VALLEY.  THE LAST IN SERIES OF SHORTWAVES OVER
PAST FEW DAYS WILL MOVE FROM GREAT LAKES REGION OVER SOUTHWESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION BY TONIGHT.

MODELS INDICATE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE BY AFTERNOON WITH CAPE VALUES
AROUND 1500-2000 J/KG.  THE MISSING INGREDIENT APPEARS TO BE THE
MOISTURE AS IT WILL BE EAST OF MOUNTAINS...AT LEAST THE DEEPER
MOISTURE.  NO REAL FOCUSING MECHANISM TO HELP REALIZE INSTABILITY
EITHER TODAY.  THEREFORE...EXPECTING ANOTHER CU FIELD TO DEVELOP
TODAY BUT LITTLE IN WAY OF PRECIPITATION.  PER COORDINATION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES...WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG
MOUNTAINS AGAIN TODAY THINKING DIFFERENTIAL HEATING COULD BE ENOUGH
TO GET SOMETHING GOING OVER MTNS.  500H HEIGHTS WILL ALSO BE ON THE
INCREASE TODAY WEST OF MTNS HELPING TO PRECLUDE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT.

850H TEMPS LOOK TO BE ABOUT A DEGREE OR SO WARMER TODAY AND WILL
ADJUST HIGH TEMPS UP A CATEGORY FROM SUNDAYS HIGHS.

TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

MODELS MORE OR LESS AGREE ON TIMING OF NEXT FRONT TO CROSS MOST OF
REGION TUESDAY NIGHT.  DO NOT THINK PASSAGE WILL BE AS DRY AS
INDICATED BY GFS...BUT WITH MAIN SHORTWAVE SUPPORT SWINGING BY TO
THE NORTH...HARD TO GET TOO EXCITED ABOUT IT EITHER.  KEPT THE GOING
30 POP WITH SOME TWEAKING TO THE HOURLY GRIDS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT.
BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME DECENT SHEAR TUESDAY EVENING...SO
SEVERE WEATHER IS A POSSIBILITY IN ANY DISCRETE STORMS THAT FORM
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

FRONT AND MOISTURE SLOW TO DEPART SOUTHERN COUNTIES...SHOULD STILL
BE AROUND BY THE TIME DAYTIME HEATING BEGINS TO PEAK.  SO LEFT POPS
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR THE MOUNTAINS AND A COUPLE OF COALFIELD
COUNTIES.  EVEN INCREASED THEM INTO CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE
AFTERNOON ALONG THE RIDGES.

INCREASED TUESDAY NIGHT LOW TEMPS A BIT...OTHERWISE FEW CHANGES TO
TEMP GRIDS.  THINK CURRENT IDEA OF HOLDING TEMPS BELOW MAV/FWC MOS
ON TUESDAY IS GOOD WITH SOME MEASURE OF CLOUD COVER.

LEFT GRIDS INTACT FROM THURSDAY ON FOR NOW...THEY MATCH UP WELL WITH
ISC GRIDS.  00Z GFS...HOWEVER...HINTS THAT FRONT MAY SINK FAR ENOUGH
SOUTH SUCH THAT POPS COULD BE REMOVED FROM ALL BUT THE FAR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES ON THURSDAY.  DAY SHIFT CAN PONDER THIS.  MOISTURE RETURN
AND APPROACH OF NEXT FRONT JUSTIFY POPS ON FRIDAY-SUNDAY.

HC/CL
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815 PM EDT SUN JUL 13 2003

OVERNIGHT UPDATE...ONLY REAL CHANGE WAS TO ACCOUNT FOR SCATTERED
HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS OVER POCAHONTAS COUNTY THIS EVENING.  THIS
ACTIVITY SHOULD DISSIPATE OR PROPAGATE EAST OF THE AREA WELL BEFORE
MIDNIGHT.

JMV

KYZ101>103-105-OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087-VAZ003-004-WVZ005>011-
013>020-024>040-046-047-141500-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
430 AM EDT MON JUL 14 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEASTERN
OHIO...NORTHEASTERN KENTUCKY...SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AND MOST OF WEST
VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

COLEMAN