Flooding and Hail in Virginia, May 15 to 17, 2003

Name: Flooding and Hail in Virginia, May 15 to 17, 2003
Start: 2003-05-15T14:50
End: 2003-05-17T04:45
Location: Virginia

May 15 to 17, 2003 · NWS LWX · 8 events in 6 counties and zones

A large area of showers and thunderstorms containing heavy downpours moved through the region between the afternoon of the 15th and the morning of the 16th. C.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

Open the live radar over this ground

The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: $1,000
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 8

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS LWX wrote it up.

A large area of showers and thunderstorms containing heavy downpours moved through the region between the afternoon of the 15th and the morning of the 16th. The system dropped between 2 and 4 inches of rain across the western Washington D.C. suburbs which caused several low lying areas to flood. In some areas it took over 8 hours for the water to recede after the rain came to an end. One storm that moved through Fauquier and Prince William counties during the afternoon of the 15th also produced high winds and large hail. In Loudoun County, several secondary roads were flooded, including Lawson Road in Leesburg. Water also flowed over portions of Route 7. Route 50 was closed for a time by Aldie after water inundated the road. Goose Creek rose above its 12 foot bankful level at 10:45 AM on the 16th. It crested at 16.45 feet at 9:30 PM and fell below bankful stage at 5:45 AM on the 17th. The creek overflowed onto Watson Road near Evergreen Mills Road and across several other low lying areas along its banks. Numerous other small creeks and streams overflowed their banks. In Fauquier County, golfball sized hail fell in Bealton. Flooding closed several roads between Bealton and Midland. In Stafford County, officials reported a couple of road closures due to flooding. In Fairfax County, Bull Run overflowed onto Bull Run Post Office Road (Route 621) west of Centreville. Several roads were underwater in Reston. In Prince William County, trees were downed by high winds in Greenwich. Numerous roads were closed across the county, especially in the Haymarket area.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Baltimore/Washington wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 15, 2:00 PM EST, 50 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 15, 2:00 PM EST, 50 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
300 PM EDT THU MAY 15 2003

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...
...A FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...

LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING FROM UPPER LOW IN KENTUCKY
TOWARDS LEADING EDGE SHORTWAVE/MCS IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. STRONG 925
MB THETAE ADVECTION AND ARRIVAL OF DEEP LAYER LIFT THIS EVENING WILL
LEAD TO A BLOSSOMING OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA. HAVE ADDED
THUNDER TONIGHT DUE TO STRONG DYNAMICS/WAA AND DECENT LAPSE RATES.
ALREADY HAVE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AREA OF BEST THETAE
ADVECTION IN CENTRAL VIRGINIA.

THE BULK OF THE RAIN EVENT IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING NEAR CHO...AND THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON NEAR THE
DC/BALTIMORE METRO AREA. ALTHOUGH DRY AIR ALOFT WORKS IN LATER
FRIDAY...LOW LEVEL LIFT AND MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE.

MODELS FORECASTING NEAR 2 INCHES IN SOME LOCATIONS. RIVER STAGES
ALREADY HIGH WITH LAST WEEKS RAIN...AND ADDITIONAL RAIN IS EXPECTED
TO CAUSE RIVER PROBLEMS. STRONG LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW SETS UP THIS
EVENING...AIDING IN HIGHER QPF ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE
RIDGE. IN ADDITION...THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE
PROBLEMS IN URBAN AREAS...MAINLY BASEMENT FLOODING AND WATER ON
STREETS DUE TO HIGH RAIN RATES.

ROGOWSKI

LONG TERM (FRI NIGHT-THU)

12Z GFS AND ETA SOLNS CONT TO DEPCT HI PRES OVR NEW ENG WHCH GETS
ESTBLSHD FRI.  ACYCLNC SFC CONV AREA SETS UP ACRSS CWA FRI NGHT THRU
MID DAY SUN.  BOTH AVN AND ETA TSCT SHWNG 90-100% RH FRM SFC TO H85
THRU 18Z SUN.  THIS COUPLED WITH SFC CNVRG WL GV THE REGION AREAS OF
DRZL AS EVDNCED BY UVV FLD IN BOTH MDLS AOB H85 WITH DRY COND AOA
H85.  DRZL WL LKLY LAST LONG AND HVY ENUF TO ACTUALLY MEASURE THRU
SAT NGHT THRU CWA.  XPCTNG DRZL- AND LW CLDS TO END SUN MIDDAY FRM N
TO S AS CONV AREA DROPS TO OUR S.  THIS IS SHWN NCLY IN THE 1000-700
MB RH FIELD IN THE ETA.  TRND IN ENS MOS GDNC HAD LOWER HIGHS FOR
SAT AND SUN AND HIGHER LOWS FOR FRI NGHT AND SAT NGHT.  WL REFLCT
THIS 2-4 DEG BUMP IN FCSTS DURING THESE PDS.

RMNDR OF SUN NGHT THRU TUE NGHT SHUD BE DRY FOR CWA. THEN BOTH
14/12Z ECMWF AND 15/00Z MRF ENSMBLS HAVE ON WED LOW PRES OVR QUE
WITH ASSOC SFC TROF EXTNDG DWN E CST TO WK SFC LW OVR SE US.
THIS WL INTRDCE SHRA/TSRA INTO OUR CWA ON WED. THU LKS DRY FOR NOW
WITH SEASONABLE TEMPS WTH POST FRNTL FLO.

JL

.LWX...
DC...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR ZONE DCZ001.
MD...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR ZONES
MDZ002>007...MDZ009>011...MDZ013>014...MDZ016>018.
VA...FLOOD WATCH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
VAZ021...VAZ025>031...VAZ037>042...VAZ050>057.
WV...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR ZONES WVZ048>055.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY.

Hazardous weather outlook, May 15, 10:45 AM EST, 4 hours 5 minutes before

DCZ001-MDZ002>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ021-025>031-036>042-
050>057-WVZ048>055-171000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1145 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MARYLAND WEST OF THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY AND EAST OF GARRETT COUNTY...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...NORTHERN
VIRGINIA...THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY...AND THE
EASTERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON...
A FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. A LARGE
AREA OF RAIN OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
AND AWAY FROM THE AREA. SOME AREAS HAVE ALREADY REPORTED MORE THAN 2
INCHES OF RAIN IN THE PAST 24 HOURS. SEVERAL COUNTIES WERE STILL
UNDER FLOOD WARNING AT LATE MORNING. THE SOIL IS SATURATED AND THE
RIVERS ARE HIGH AND RISING. ANY ADDED RAINFALL TODAY WILL ONLY
FURTHER AGGRAVATE THE SITUATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
ANY RIVER FLOODING THAT DEVELOPS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, May 15, 10:45 AM EST, 4 hours 5 minutes before

DCZ001-MDZ002>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ021-025>031-036>042-
050>057-WVZ048>055-152200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1145 AM EDT THU MAY 15 2003

...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...

RAIN WILL BECOME LIKELY BY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE AREA...WITH POSSIBLE
WIDESPREAD ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN ONE AND TWO INCHES BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST RAIN WILL BE LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING...WITH RAINFALL TAPERING OFF THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

THE AREAS OF MOST CONCERN ARE ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE
RIDGE AND IN URBAN AREAS...WHERE FLOODING OF BASEMENTS AND STREETS
IS POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...AREA RIVER STAGES REMAIN HIGH FROM
PRECIPITATION LAST WEEK. THE FORECASTED ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY ALSO
LEAD TO RIVER FLOODING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATEST
WEATHER INFORMATION.

ROGOWSKI/CPW

The radar

The Sterling radar (KLWX), 52 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 19:48 UTC.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

6 flood, 1 hail, 1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.

Hail, Fauquier

When: May 15, 2:50 PM EST
Where: Fauquier County, Bealeton
Measured: 1.75 in hail
Reported by: TRAINED SPOTTER
Coordinates: 38.567, -77.767

Golfball sized hail was reported.

Thunderstorm Wind, Prince William

When: May 15, 3:43 PM EST
Where: Prince William County, Greenwich
Measured: 50 kt (58 mph) estimated gust
Property damage: $1,000
Reported by: TRAINED SPOTTER
Coordinates: 38.750, -77.650

Trees were downed.

Flood, Prince William / Manassas

When: May 15, 8:47 PM EST to May 16, 12:15 AM EST
Where: Prince William / Manassas forecast zone
Reported by: LAW ENFORCEMENT

Flood, Loudoun

When: May 15, 8:47 PM EST to May 16, 11:00 PM EST
Where: Loudoun forecast zone
Reported by: LAW ENFORCEMENT

Flood, Fauquier

When: May 15, 8:47 PM EST to May 16, 5:00 PM EST
Where: Fauquier forecast zone
Reported by: LAW ENFORCEMENT

Flood, Fairfax

When: May 15, 8:56 PM EST to May 16, 2:00 AM EST
Where: Fairfax forecast zone
Reported by: LAW ENFORCEMENT
Coordinates: 38.841, -77.291 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Flood, Stafford

When: May 16, 12:00 AM EST to 2:30 AM EST
Where: Stafford forecast zone
Reported by: LAW ENFORCEMENT
Coordinates: 38.421, -77.457 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Flood, Loudoun

When: May 16, 9:45 AM EST to May 17, 4:45 AM EST
Where: Loudoun forecast zone
Reported by: AWOS,ASOS,MESONET,ETC

What these are

Hail: Hail three-quarters of an inch or larger, or smaller hail that caused damage, filed with the largest stone measured.
Thunderstorm Wind: Winds from a thunderstorm of 50 knots (58 mph) or more, or lower winds that caused damage or casualties. Measured gusts are marked MG, estimated EG.
Flood: Flooding that develops more slowly than a flash flood: rivers leaving their banks, or water standing over land for an extended time.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Virginia in 2003 Every state in 2003 This day in weather history Warnings in Virginia, May 2003

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5370685, 5370686, 5370688, 5370689, 5370690, 5370687, 5370691, 5370692.