Flash Flooding and Hail in Virginia, June 11, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG, VA
250 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2003

TNGT-THU...

RADAR SHOWING AXIS OF DEEP CONVECTION RUNNING FROM CENTRAL WVA BACK
INTO ERN KY ALONG EARLIER OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. EXPECT SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY TO SLOWLY WORK/DEVELOP INTO THE WRN ZONES BY EVENING BEFORE
LOSS OF HEATING CAUSES COVERAGE TO DIMINISH. THIS GNRLY CLOSE TO
LATEST ETA SOLN WHICH KEEPS BEST SUPPORT WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE...SO
PLAN TO KEEP CHCY POPS GOING...HIGHEST WEST MAINLY THIS EVENING.
MUGGY NIGHT AHEAD WITH SOUPY DEWPOINTS HOLDING TEMPS MAINLY IN THE
60S...EXCEPT PSBLY NEAR 70 SE. A BIT BETTER SHOT FOR DEEP CONVECTION
APPEARS ON TAP FOR THU AS MID MISS VALLEY UPPER VORT PASSES TOWARD
THE OHIO VALLEY LATE. INCREASING MID LEVEL JET COMBO WITH BLYR
INSTAB CONDUCIVE TO BETTER COVERAGE ALTHO TIMING OF TRAILING TROF
AXIS CRITICAL. GFS LOOKS OVERDONE AND FAST FOR JUNE...SO PLAN TO
FOLLOW SLOWER ETA WHICH ALTHO LACKS INSTABILITY SUPPORTS TREND
TOWARD EARLY WRN TSRA...REDEVELOPING INTO THE PIEDMONT LATER THU.
WILL RAISE TEMPS SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR A WARM START AND SOME
INSOLATION.

JH

THU NGT AND BEYOND...

WEAKER ETA KEEPS FRNTL BNDRY FURTHER NORTH THU NGT THRU SAT
RESULTING IN BETTER CHCS OF RAIN ACROSS THE ENTIRE FA.  FEEL GFS
PUSHES DRY AIR TOO FAR SOUTH BASED ON OVERDONE UPR LOW CRNTLY OVER
MO.  OVER THE WEEKEND GFS DROPS STRONG JET DOWN OVER GREAT
LAKES...AMPLIFYING UPR FLOW AND STRENGTHENING HIGH PRES OVER THE
NE.  HIGH BUILDS INTO MID-ATL AND PUSHES SOME DRY AIR INTO OUR
AREA.  WILL CONT TO SHUT OFF POPS IN THE NORTH EARLY IN THE
WEEK...HOWEVER CONF IS LOW.

FCSTID =    9
ROA   70  85  69  85 /  40  50  30  40
LYH   68  85  68  82 /  30  40  30  40
DAN   70  87  69  87 /  30  40  30  40
BLF   67  77  62  77 /  50  60  40  40
LWB   63  74  60  77 /  40  50  40  40
BCB   64  79  64  79 /  40  50  30  40
TNB   64  77  63  76 /  50  50  40  40

.RNK...
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
WV...NONE.

NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035-043>047-058-059-
WVZ042>045-111500-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
606 AM EDT WED JUN 11 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA...
WESTERN AND CENTRAL VIRGINIA...AS WELL AS NORTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY WEST OF THE BLUE RIDGE.  TIMING AND SEVERITY OF
THE ACTIVITY WILL BE DEPENDANT ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND MOVEMENT OF
LARGER THUNDERSTORM COMPLEXES OVER THE OHIO AND TENNESSE VALLEYS.

PLEASE MONITOR RADAR AND FORECAST TRENDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

THERE IS A GREATER RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON THURSDAY.

ALSO...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IS STILL CONCERNED ABOUT
REPETITIVE RAINFALL.  THE WET PATTERN...WHICH IS FORECAST TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND...FAVORS THE POSSIBILITY OF
SMALL STREAM OR RIVER FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON...AND AGAIN
THURSDAY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

NCZ001-002-018-VAZ007-009>012-015-WVZ042>045-112300-
SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BLACKSBURG VA
111 PM EDT WED JUN 11 2003

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING...

THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF KENTUCKY ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE
INTO THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE STORMS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
LOCATIONS FROM THE NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS INTO EXTREME
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...AS WELL AS SOUTHEAST WEST VIRGINIA HAVE THE
BEST CHANCE OF SEEING STRONG STORMS. IN ADDITION...TORRENTIAL
DOWNPOURS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH ANY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

JH