A thunderstorm with high winds moved through Orange and Spotsylvania counties during the evening of the 28th. In Orange County, trees were downed on Route 20 between Orange and Lake of the Woods.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LWX wrote it up.
A thunderstorm with high winds moved through Orange and Spotsylvania counties during the evening of the 28th. In Orange County, trees were downed on Route 20 between Orange and Lake of the Woods. Trees also blocked routes 619, 621, and 698 in the eastern portion of the county. In Spotsylvania County, numerous trees were downed across the western portion of the county.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Baltimore/Washington wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 28, 2:30 PM EST, 2 hours 20 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 330 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2003 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT AND TOMORROW): PCPN HAS ARRIVED W OF DC...AND IT APPEARS BASED ON STLT AT LEAST SVRL HRS OF RA ARE AHEAD OF US. SFC BNDRY CURRENTLY ACROSS CENTRAL VA LOOKS TO REMAIN STATIONARY THRU 06Z...W/ PCPN MAINLY ON THE NRN SIDE... WHICH JUST HAPPENS TO BE OUR CWA. AREA IS ONLY IN GNRL TSTMS...SVR IS SEEMING DOUBTFUL DUE TO MINIMAL SFC HTG AND LACK OF INSTABILITY ALOFT. OVRNGT TEMPS 65-70 - QUITE NICE FOR LATE JUL. BNDRY IS PROGGED TO BEGIN PUSHING SWD TOWARD MRNG...AND POPS/CLD COVER WL BE DCRSG FM N-S AS DAY PROGRESSES. TEMPS 8-10 DEGS BLO NORMS ARE XPCTD. WOODY .LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY): *CURRENT OBSERVATIONS: UPPER LEVELS CURRENTLY FEATURE A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WHICH BROADLY DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHERN CONUS...WITH A TROUGH ANCHORED OVER NEW BRUNSWICK. WATER VAPOR SHOWS A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET NEARING WISCONSIN. A RIDGE OVER WESTERN CANADA HAS MOVED EAST DURING THE PAST FEW DAYS...ALLOWING A SYSTEM OVER SASKATCHEWAN TO BEGIN TO DIG SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE...A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS ANALYZED ACROSS MARYLAND AT 12Z. *OPERATIONAL MODELS: SURFACE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO SHIFT SOUTHWARD AS WAVE PASSES TO OUR NORTHEAST TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. NEGATIVE VORTICITY ADVECTION SHOULD PROMOTE WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE BUILDING OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY. THIS OCCURS AS THE NEXT WAVE DIGS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST AS PROGGED BY 12Z ETA/GFS/CANADIAN. THE SURFACE BOUNDARY (AND DEEP MOISTURE) WILL RETURN NORTHWARD THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...AS THE NEXT SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO STALL ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST IN A REGION OF SPLIT/WEAK FLOW. *ENSEMBLE DATA: 09Z SHORT RANGE ENSEMBLES REFLECT HIGH CONFIDENCE OF TRACK/SPEED OF NEXT WAVE IN UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. SREF DATA DOES HOWEVER SHOW A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WEDNESDAY ACROSS CENTRAL VIRGINIA. SUPER ENSEMBLES ALSO SHOW HIGH CONFIDENCE WITH NEXT SYSTEM...PLACING IT OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY 12Z THURSDAY. 00Z MREF ENSEMBLES BROADENS THIS TROUGH AND MOVES EAST FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY. NCEP 500MB HEIGHT NORMALIZED SPREAD ENSEMBLE SHOWS A LARGE HEIGHT DEVIATION OVER THE LOWER MIDWEST DURING THIS TIME PERIOD. *FORECAST RATIONALE: CONSISTENT OPERATIONAL MODELS/ENSEMBLES THROUGH MUCH OF FORECAST PERIOD. FRONT PUSHING SOUTH OF OUR AREA WILL TAKE PRECIPITATION WITH IT WEDNESDAY. AS NEXT SYSTEM DIGS AND STALLS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST...INCREASING WARM ADVECTION WILL BRING THE FRONT BACK NORTH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING BACK THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION AND INCREASE HUMIDITY. WITH HEIGHT DEVIATION ALONG THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE MIDWEST TROUGH DURING THE WEEKEND...MIDLEVEL LOW WILL LIKELY PULL FURTHER SOUTH AND STALL ALONG THE MID ATLANTIC COME EARLY NEXT WEEK. HAVE DECREASED HIGH TEMPERATURES...UNDERCUTTING MRF ENSEMBLE MOS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH THE INTRODUCTION OF PRECIPITATION INTO THE FORECAST. THE WEEKEND WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT...BUT THE PATTERN SUPPORTS PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THANKS FOR COORD PHI/CTP VIA ISC ROGOWSKI .LWX... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE.
DCZ001-MDZ002>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ021-025>031-036>042- 050>057-WVZ048>055-290800- HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1129 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2003 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MARYLAND WEST OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND EAST OF GARRETT COUNTY...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...NORTHERN VIRGINIA...THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY...AND THE EASTERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA. .DAY ONE...TODAY THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS ABOVE TWO INCHES PER HOUR ACROSS THE AREA. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILL MONITOR THE SITUATION AS IT DEVELOPS AND ISSUE FLOOD WARNINGS IF NECESSARY. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. ABW
The Sterling radar (KLWX), 88 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:48 UTC.
2 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Several trees were downed, some onto roads.
Numerous trees were downed.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Virginia in 2003Every state in 2003This day in weather historyWarnings in Virginia, July 2003
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5368499, 5368500.