Thunderstorms with high winds and frequent lightning moved through extreme northwest Virginia during the late afternoon and evening of the 12th. In Frederick County, trees were downed onto Bryarly and Gun Club roads just north of Winchester.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LWX wrote it up.
Thunderstorms with high winds and frequent lightning moved through extreme northwest Virginia during the late afternoon and evening of the 12th. In Frederick County, trees were downed onto Bryarly and Gun Club roads just north of Winchester. In Clarke County, trees and power lines were downed in Berryville. In Shenandoah County, high winds blew over or snapped trees in the Forest View area north of Edinburg. The damage was centered around Forest View Road and Ridge. The Aileen Plant which had lost its roof in a February snowstorm lost a brick wall during this windstorm.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Baltimore/Washington wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 12, 9:24 AM EST, 4 hours 6 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1024 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2003 PRVS FCST IN GOOD SHAPE...AND CHGS WL BE VRY MINOR. LOW WBZ...BUT OTRW UNREMARKABLE SNDG. SHUD BE ENUF INSTAB FOR AFTN CU. OROGRAPHIC LIFT ACRS W AND N SHUD BE ENUF TO ISOL TSRA. THUS...WL XTND SLGT CHCH TSRA ACRS NRN MD. W/ S/WV APPCHG...CNTYS ALNG ALLEGANY FRNT HV A BTTR CHC FOR AFTN TSRA...SO 30 POPS THERE. TEMPS OK...MAY END UP SHADING GRIDS DNW A DEG RIGHT BFR ISSUANCE. PRODUCTS BY 11AM. -HTS PRVS DSCN... TODAY...SHORTWAVE-TROUGH ROTATING THROUGH ERN US LARGE SCALE TROF COMBINED WITH LEFTOVER MOISTURE AND AFTERNOON HEATING WILL RESULT IN M/C WEST P/C SKIES EAST BY AFTERNOON. BOTH GFS AND ETA MODELS INDICATE WEAK CONVERGENCE ALG SFC TROF AND SOME INSTABILITY TO WARRANT MENTIONING OF POPS TODAY. CAPES PEAK AT 500 J/KG AND LIFTED AND SHOWALTER INDICES BECOME NEGATIVE BY AFTERNOON ON ETA BUFKIT SOUNDINGS. TT ALSO CLIMB TO 50. WILL GO WITH SCHANCE WEST OF A LINE FROM FDK/IAD/CHO. TEMPS TODAY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 80S. ANY CONVECTION WILL DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. TONITE...ETA DEVELOPS A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRES OVR SRN VA AND GENERATES SOME QPF OVR LOWER SRN MD AND SERN VA. GFS IN THE OTHER HAND IS DRY KEEPING THE PRECIP WELL TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. AFTER COLLABORATION WITH AKQ WILL PUT A LOW CHANCE POPS FOR LWR SRN MD MAINLY AFTER 06Z SUN. ROSA NEXT WEEK... A STATIONARY FRONT REMAINS JUST TO OUR SE ON SUN AND MON. GFS CURRNTLY HAS A WEAK WAVE BUCKING IT BACK WEST SLIGHTLY LATE MON WHICH RESULTS IN HIGHER POPS FOR MON. HOWEVER IT REMAINS TO BE SEEN IF THIS WEAK WAVE FORMS AND INDEED HAS THAT EFFECT. AFTER THAT LOW MOVES NE OUT TO SEA MON NIGHT...FRONT IS PUSHED A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE EAST...DOWN TO AROUND CAPE HAT. IN ANY CASE FRONT WILL BE NEARBY FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. THEN WED ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES TOWARDS THE AREA...REACHING THE NW ZONES BY WED EVE. GFS DRIES THIS FRONT OUT SIGNFCTLY BY THE TIME IT REACHES US. WITH ALL THE MEDIOCRATY IN THE ATMOSPHERE IN THE EXTNDED WILL ONLY BE MAKING A FEW CHANGES FROM THE CURRNT FORECAST. BIGGST CHANGE WILL BE TO TAILOR THE POPS ON SUN AND SUN EVE TO REFLECT THE POSTN OF THE FRONT AND WILL HAVE GREATER POPS SE AND LESSR POPS NW. STRONG .LWX... DC...NONE. MD...NONE. VA...NONE. WV...NONE.
DCZ001-MDZ002>007-009>011-013-014-016>018-VAZ021-025>031-036>042- 050>057-WVZ048>055-131030- HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1230 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2003 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MARYLAND WEST OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND EAST OF GARRETT COUNTY...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...NORTHERN VIRGINIA...THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL SHENANDOAH VALLEY...AND THE EASTERN PANHANDLE OF WEST VIRGINIA. .DAY ONE...TODAY THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS LATE THIS AFTERNOON. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BECOME NECESSARY IN WESTERN MARYLAND AND EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA LATER TODAY. HTS
MDZ002-003-VAZ021-WVZ048>052-054-055-122215- SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1227 PM EDT SAT JUL 12 2003 THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OKLAHOMA HAS INDICATED THAT THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE POTOMAC HIGHLANDS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IN THE OHIO VALLEY HAS RESULTED IN THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA LATE THIS MORNING. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL RAPIDLY DIMINISH BY SUNSET. LARGE HAIL...GREATER THAN THREE-QUARTERS OF AN INCH...WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT...ALTHOUGH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. SKYWARN ACTIVATION MAY BECOME NECESSARY LATER TODAY. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES. HTS
The Sterling radar (KLWX), 95 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 18:28 UTC.
3 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Trees and wires were downed. A brick wall collapsed.
Trees were downed onto Bryarly and Gun Club roads.
Trees and power lines were downed.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Virginia in 2003Every state in 2003This day in weather historyWarnings in Virginia, July 2003
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5368487, 5368488, 5368489.