Damaging Wind in Utah, June 20, 2003

UTAH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
320 PM MDT FRI JUN 20 2003

.SYNOPSIS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT INTO EXTREME NORTHWEST UTAH THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO CENTRAL UTAH ON SATURDAY.

.DISCUSSION...COLD LOW OVER SOUTHERN BRITISH COLUMBIA WITH A STRONG
SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING INTO EASTERN MONTANA THIS AFTERNOON.
STRONG STORMS OVER THAT AREA WITH JET ENTRANCE REGION OVER SOUTHEAST
IDAHO. JET EXIT REGION MOVING INTO NORTHEAST NEVADA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AT THE BACK OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH. THEREFORE...GOOD JET
DYNAMICS OVER NORTHWEST UTAH/SOUTHEAST IDAHO LATE THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE LOW LEVELS REMAIN DRY...SO WOULD ONLY
EXPECT SOME HAIL REPORTS AND STRONG MICROBURST WINDS OUT OF THESE
STORMS. MOST ACTIVITY REMAINING ALONG AND NORTH OF THE SURFACE
BOUNDARY/700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM ELY TO OGDEN.

JET WILL PUNCH INTO NORTHERN UTAH TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW WITH
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE LOW NOW IN SOUTHERN
ALBERTA. THIS WILL PUSH THE SURFACE BOUNDARY INTO CENTRAL UTAH
TOMORROW. CONVECTION WILL BE MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY
WHERE THE BEST JET DYNAMICS EXIST. TEMPS WILL DROP TO NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL NORTH OF THE FRONT. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY.

SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING WITH SOME SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS STILL REMAINING ALONG THE BOUNDARY. MOISTURE SHOULD BE
VERY LIMITED BY THIS TIME WITH THE STRONG WESTERLY FLOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL A LITTLE MORE INTO SUNDAY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.

EXPECT TEMPS TO REBOUND A BIT ON MONDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM AS THE FLOW BACKS TO THE SOUTHWEST. THIS SYSTEM TO DIG INTO
NEVADA ON MONDAY WITH A STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW RETURNING TO THE
ENTIRE FIRE WEATHER DISTRICT. SHOULD SEE ANOTHER BOUNDARY SET UP IN
NORTHWEST UTAH AGAIN MONDAY.

THE 12Z RUN OF THE GFS HAS THIS SYSTEM MOVING QUICKLY THROUGH THE
AREA AND EXITING BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS RUNS AND THE 00Z
ENSEMBLES FROM THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODEL WOULD SUGGEST KEEPING THE
SLOWER SOLUTION WITH THE SYSTEM EXITING BY WEDNESDAY. STICKING WITH
THIS IDEA...SO EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
TUESDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. AFTER THIS...A DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA AS A RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE
SOUTHWEST. EXPECT TEMPS TO SLOWLY WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS
THROUGH THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

SLC 3322 CDC 0111 NELSON

.SLC...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN UTAH FOR STRONG
       SOUTH WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FRIDAY AFTERNOON
       THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. SEE SLCRFWSLC FOR DETAILS.

IDZ024-025-UTZ001>021-WYZ021-211300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
1000 AM MDT FRI JUN 20 2003

UPDATED TO ADD RED FLAG WARNING

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF
UTAH...EXTREME SOUTHEAST IDAHO AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST WYOMING

.DAY ONE... TODAY

THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WINDS ARE LIKELY IN EXTREME NORTHWEST UTAH
TODAY ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS ALONG THE IDAHO BORDER AND
INTERSTATE 84. ALSO...STRONG SOUTH WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL COMBINE FOR SEVERE FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON IN
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN UTAH.  SEE THE SLCRFWSLC FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

UNSEASONABLY COOL WEATHER IS EXPECTED TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURE.

WCJIN-WYSW

IDZ024-025-UTZ001>011-015-WYZ021-210400-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
200 PM MDT FRI JUN 20 2003

...MICROBURST WIND GUSTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING...

STRONG GUSTY WINDS TO 50 MPH OR HIGHER WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON OVER AN AREA NORTH OF A
LINE FROM ELY TO PRICE AND MICROBURST WIND GUSTS HAVE BEEN OBSERVED.
SOME OBSERVATIONS INCLUDE HAT ISLAND (TOOELE COUNTY) 63 MPH...HORSE
HOLLOW (MILLARD COUNTY) 50 MPH...SIGNAL PEAK (SEVIER COUNTY) 41
MPH...DURAND ROAD NEAR DUGWAY (TOOELE COUNTY) 40 MPH...INF ROAD NEAR
DUGWAY (TOOELE COUNTY) 49 MPH.