Flash Flood in Florida, June 20, 2003

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
300 AM EDT FRI JUN 20 2003

CURRENTLY...MOSTLY SHOWERS ARE TRACKING ACROSS LEVY AND CITRUS
COUNTIES ATTM...OTHER SHOWERS ARE WELL SOUTH OF KFMY...OTHERWISE
QUIET.

SHORT TERM (TODAY-SUN NIGHT)...UPPER LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY/ WITH
TROUGHINESS EXTENDING SOUTHWEST TO THE GULF COAST/ AND UPPER RIDGE
ACROSS FLORIDA ALONG WITH A SURFACE RIDGE AXIS ALONG THE FLORIDA
KEYS WILL MAINTAIN DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...TAPPING ABUNDANT
TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE CARIBBEAN AND EASTERN PACIFIC. THIS
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO SAT WHEN THE UPPER LOW SLIDES EASTWARD
TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH THE FLOW ACROSS THE CWFA BECOMING
MORE SOUTHWEST TO WEST...BUT CONTINUING TO TAP DEEP MOISTURE DURING
SAT. BY SUN THE UPPER LOW/ WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW/ MOVES
OFFSHORE AND RIDGING BUILDS IN OVER THE MIDWEST WITH FLOW ALOFT
BECOMING WEST AND NORTHWEST...WITH DRIER AIR BEGINNING TO FILTER
INTO THE REGION. FORECAST WILL CONTINUE CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
BUT WILL BUMP POPS UP INTO CATEGORICAL FOR THE AFTERNOONS TODAY
AND SAT AND ALSO HIGHLIGHT THE FLOOD WATCH FOR COASTAL COUNTIES
TODAY AND DEFER TO LATER SHIFT FOR FUTURE ADJUSTMENTS. BETWEEN
THE CLOUDS AND RAINFALL HIGHS SHOULD STAY ON THE COOL SIDE OF
NORMAL AND LOWS WARMER WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW OFF THE GULF...
TEMPS TO BEGIN NORMALIZING SUNDAY AS CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION
TAPER BACK. HAVE FAVORED THE ETA AND MESO-ETA IN THE SHORT TERM...
THESE HAVE VERIFIED BETTER OVER THE PAST EVENING. HOWEVER...HAVE
LEANED TOWARD THE MAV MOS FOR TEMPS WHICH HAS BEEN BETTER THAN
THE MET MOS.

EXTENDED (SUN NIGHT-THU)...
APPEARS NOW THAT THE PRODIGIOUS RAINS WILL COME TO AN ABRUPT END
SUN NIGHT...AND FULL SUNSHINE WITH MORE COMFORTABLE RH VALUES (AND
NOTICEABLY MORE TOLERABLE NIGHTS) WILL START THE NEXT WORK WEEK.  YET
ANOTHER POTENT TROUGH SLIDES OFF THE E COAST LATE SUN...BUT THIS TIME
THE FRONT END OF EXPANDING 500 MB RIDGE NOSES ACROSS THE SE U.S.  THE
NW FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO NE THEN E AT THE SFC...BUT DEEP LAYERED DRYING
(MEAN RH AS LOW AS 15%) ACCOMPANIES THE BUILDING RIDGE...WHICH
LOOKS MORE MAY-LIKE THAN END OF JUNE.

IN ANY CASE...BY THEN WELL WELCOME THE DRYING TREND.  FOR SENSIBLE
WX...EXPECT CLEAR NIGHTS AND MOSTLY SUNNY DAYS WITH ISOLD AFTN
TSTMS AT BEST MON/TUE...MAINLY S OF TAMPA BAY.  BY WED/THURS...LOW
LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SE WHICH WILL DEEPEN MOISTURE A BIT AND
RETURN SCT AFTN/EVE TSTMS TO MOST OF THE AREA.  TEMPS WILL BE
SEASONABLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

MARINE...OTHER THAN THUNDERSTORMS WHICH SHOULD BE ON THE DECREASE
SUNDAY AND LATER...NO PROBLEMS WITH WINDS 10-15KTS OR LESS.

FIRE WEATHER...NO HIGHLIGHTS.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS:
BKV 086/073 086/070 8582
TPA 086/075 086/075 8584
GIF 086/074 086/072 8584
SRQ 086/076 086/075 8584
FMY 087/074 087/072 8584

.TBW...FLOOD WATCH FOR THE COUNTIES OF CHARLOTTE...CITRUS...
       HERNANDO...HILLSBOROUGH...LEVY...MANATEE...PASCO...
       PINELLAS...SARASOTA...LEE...THROUGH FRIDAY.

RKR/BG

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-201530-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL FL
623 AM EDT FRI JUN 20 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

...A FLOOD WATCH FOR COASTAL COUNTIES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE AREA TODAY
AND TONIGHT...PROVIDING PERIODS OF RAIN WHICH MAY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY MOVING ACROSS MANY OF
THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND ARE EXPECTED INCREASE AND COVER ALL OF
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA BY LATE MORNING.

THE GREATEST THREAT TODAY WILL BE FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN FLOOD
PRONE AREAS...WITH RAINFALL THAT COULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 2
TO 4 INCH RANGE. BUT LOCALLY...AMOUNTS COULD POSSIBLY BE AS HIGH
AS 6 TO 10 INCHES.

IN ADDITION...THE HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSE A THREAT
WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND DANGEROUS LIFE THREATENING LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:

THE MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE AREA
WITH THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN SATURDAY AND SOME FLOODING
IS STILL POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME SCATTERED SUNDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

09

FLZ039-042-201000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
315 AM EDT FRI JUN 20 2003

...HEAVY RAINS HEADED FOR CITRUS AND LEVY COUNTIES...

SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY IN THE
NORTHEASTERN GULF THROUGH DAYBREAK.  MODERATE SHOWERS HAVE MOVED
ONSHORE BETWEEN CRYSTAL RIVER AND YANKEETOWN AS OF 3 AM...AND MORE
SIGNIFICANT RAINS WILL ARRIVE BETWEEN 4 AND 6 AM.

AREAS OF NORTHERN CITRUS COUNTY EXPERIENCED FLOODING THURSDAY
MORNING...AND THE GROUND REMAINS VERY SATURATED.  LOCAL RAINS OF
MORE THAN 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED...AND MAY QUICKLY PRODUCE STREET
FLOODING AGAIN.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
UPDATES...AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS...LATER THIS MORNING.

BSG