Hail in Texas, October 25, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
1000 AM CDT SAT 25 OCT 2003

UPDATED ZONES TO ADD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH THAT WAS ISSUED BY
SPC. WATCH EXPIRES AT 3 PM WITH MAIN THREAT HAIL.

EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IN THE SUBTROPICAL JET IS LOCATED THIS MORNING
ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BETWEEN KCRP AND KGLS. THIS SYSTEM IS
MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AND SHOULD ADVANCE INTO THE FORECAST AREA
BY LATE MORNING AND TRACK ACROSS THIS AFTERNOON. ALREADY REGIONAL
RADARS SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE FORECAST
AREA WITH A MORE CONCENTRATED AREA CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE OVER
THE NORTHWEST GULF AND IMMEDIATE SOUTHEAST TEXAS COAST.

25/12Z UPPER AIR SOUNDING INDICATES QUITE A MOISTURE INCREASE FROM
YESTERDAY WITH PWAT AT 1.3 INCHES. THE SOUNDING DOES INDICATE SOME
DRY AIR BETWEEN 8H-5H. ALL THIS SEEMS TO BE DOING IS LOWERING
WET-BULB ZERO TO 9K FT. LAPS AND MSAS ANALYSIS ALREADY SHOWS AIRMASS
MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH CAPES BETWEEN 1K-1.5K J/KG AND LIS
BETWEEN (-4) AND (-6). THIS ALONG WITH UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
PROVIDED BY SUBTROPICAL JET STREAK POINTS TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME HAIL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. RADAR OPERATOR INDICATES VIL OF THE DAY IS 44KG/M2. SPC
HAS A SLIGHT RISK FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. WILL GO AHEAD AND BUMP POPS
UP TO 50 PERCENT AND ADD A MENTION OF SEVERE STORMS.

LINEAR EXTRAPOLATION HAS STRONG COLD FRONT THAT IS IN NORTH
CENTRAL TEXAS WILL ENTER THE FORECAST AREA AROUND MIDNIGHT.

.UPDATED POINT TEMPS/POPS...

KLCH 82 61 66 44 / 50 80 50 00
KBPT 81 58 65 45 / 50 80 50 00
KAEX 81 58 62 40 / 50 80 50 00
KLFT 83 63 67 44 / 50 80 70 00

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALL ZONES UNTIL 3 PM.
TX...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALL ZONES UNTIL 3 PM.

07-RUA

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

MUGGY MORNING ACROSS THE AREA WITH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S. PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED BUT WITH A LIGHT BREEZE AND WEAK PVA...
DONT LOOK FOR DENSE FOG TO DEVELOP. SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY AIDING IN
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/TSTMS AROUND CORPUS CHRISTI
WILL MOVE NE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON AND WILL PRODUCE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS BEGINNING MID-MORNING OVER SE TX AND THEN
SPREADING EASTWARD THRU THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING ACROSS SE OK-NW TX WILL SLOWLY MOVE
SEWD TODAY. HAVE SLOWED THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT BY ABOUT 4-5 HOURS
OR SO FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST SO BEST CHANCE OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT WILL COME TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. SPC HAS
US IN SLIGHT RISK AREA FOR SEVERE TSTMS DURING THIS TIME FRAME.
WILL INCLUDE SEVERE WORDING AS HIGH CAPES...GOOD CONVERGENCE AND
FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS POINT TO POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER. ON
THE NEGATIVE SIDE...MID LEVEL WINDS SHOW VERY LITTLE SHEAR. WITH
SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT...HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BECOME A
POSSIBILITY...SO WILL INCLUDE THIS WORDING IN THE ZONES AS WELL.

FRONT WILL CLEAR THE AREA BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH DRIER...COOLER...
AND WINDY CONDITIONS BEHIND THE FRONT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE
RAPIDLY BEHIND THE FRONT AND SCA CONDITIONS WILL MOST LIKELY BE MET.
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE BEGINNING OF THE
WEEK. WEAK FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. LOOKS TO BE DRY AT
THIS TIME AS MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED. TEMPS AND MOISTURE WILL BE ON
THE INCREASE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS LOW LEVEL FLOW RETURNS OFF
THE GULF. WILL ALSO GO WITH LOW POPS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
MOISTURE RETURN.

WILEY

LAZ027>033-041>045-051>055-TXZ180>182-201-215-216-252300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
545 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS...CENTRAL...
SOUTH-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BEGINNING THIS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN SOUTHEAST
TEXAS AND WILL SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. SEVERE WEATHER IS
NOT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT A VIGOROUS UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL JET WILL MOVE INTO
THE REGION FROM SOUTH TEXAS AND A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE PRIMARY SEVERE WEATHER HAZARD
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
NEAR 1 INCH WILL BE ON TAP WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
SUNDAY BY EARLY AFTERNOON. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

FOR THE WORK WEEK...COLDEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON WITH
DAYTIME HIGHS IN THE 70S AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 40S TO
LOWER 50S.

.INFORMATION STATEMENT...
THE ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS...HAM RADIO OPERATORS...AND
EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IN SUPPORT OF SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS MAY BE REQUIRED OVERNIGHT.

WILEY