Flash Flooding in Texas, October 11 to 12, 2003

Name: Flash Flooding in Texas, October 11 to 12, 2003
Start: 2003-10-11T19:00
End: 2003-10-12T09:00
Location: Texas

October 11 to 12, 2003 · NWS CRP · 4 events in 4 counties and zones

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 4 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

Tornadoes
Tropical storms and surge
Floods
Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
Marine and coastal
Other

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The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: None recorded
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 4

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS CRP wrote it up.

Very heavy rainfall began falling across western portions of South Texas late in the evening on the 11th of October and continued into the early morning hours of the 12th. WSR-88D from Corpus Christi estimated widespread rainfall totals that night of 3 to 5 inches from western Live Oak and Jim Wells Counties west into La Salle and Webb county. Heavier amounts of 5 to 8 inches were estimated by radar to have fallen across northern Webb County and the southern half of La Salle County. Radar estimated a bullseye of 8 to 12 inches across central La Salle County, southeast of Cotulla. An isolated spot of of 12 to 15 inches of rainfall was estimated southeast of Cotulla, near F.M. 624 and over the Nueces river. The heavy rain that fell on the night of the 11th and morning of the 12th occurred over the Nueces River basin and led to major river flooding downstream for days after the rainfall event. Below are additional rainfall totals from cooperative observers and the Cotulla ASOS site:Choke Canyon State Park - over 7 inchesCotulla - over 4 inchesCross - over 3 inchesEncinal - close to 9 inchesFowlerton - over 6 inchesLaredo - almost 5 inchesTilden - over 5 inchesWhittsett - over 2 inches

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Corpus Christi, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Oct 11, 6:25 PM CST, 35 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Oct 11, 6:25 PM CST, 35 minutes before

SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
725 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2003

MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURGE OF HIGHER DEWPTS ACRS THE CWA. THUS WL
INCREASE MIN TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES. A SFC LOW HAS DVLPD OVR DEEP S
TX WITH A NE FLOW OVR MAJORITY OF CWA. THIS LOW IS FARTHER E THAN
THE AVN PROGD. STRONG UPPER LEV DIFF AND S/WV OVR MEX ALONG WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND SFC CONVERGENCE IS PRODUCING +TSRAS CURRENTLY
ACRS NW CWA. THESE DYNAMICS ARE PROGD TO CONT OVRNIGHT WITH CONTD
PRECIP THRU SUN. WL RAISE POPS AND ISSUE FFA FOR
WEBB...LASALLE...MCMULLEN AND LIVE OAK COUNTIES. WL UPDATE ZONES TO
INCLUDE FFA AND REFLECT WARMER MINS AND NE FLOW.

.CRP WATCH/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FFA FOR WEBB...LASALLE...MCMULLEN
AND LIVE OAK COUNTIES.

81...TE

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THRU SUNDAY NIGHT)...AVN AND ETA NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH CF CURRENTLY OVR TX PANHANDLE. AVN MUCH MORE
AGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE AND BRINGING CF THRU THE CWA SUN MORNING.
ETA IS DRIER...BUT DOES BRING THE CF THRU CWA OVRNIGHT TONIGHT WITH
WINDS BACKING BRIEFLY TO THE NE...THEN STALLS THE FRONT ACRS THE CWA
WITH GENERALLY A LGT ELY FLOW THRU SUN. AVN ALSO SHOWS UPPER LEV
JET/TROF AXIS/IMPULSE FARTHER S AND CLOSER TO W CWA BY TONIGHT AND
SUN WHICH WOULD PROVIDE BETTER UPPER LEV FORCING FOR ESPECIALLY W
CWA. BASED ON CURRENT WV IMAGERY AND ENERGY NEAR DRT...WL GO WITH
AVN SOLN. THUS...WL KEEP TONIGHTS AND SUN POPS AS IS WITH HIGHER
POPS OVR W ZONES AND LOWER NE. CF PROGD TO MOV INTO THE CWA SUN MORN
AND THRU THE ENTIRE CWA BY AFTERNOON...WITH AN INCREASING NE FLOW IN
ITS WAKE.  PRECIP CHCS CONT SUN NIGHT WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AS THE
MAIN MECHANISM. AS FOR FLASH FLOOD WATCH...CWA HASNT SEEN AS MUCH
RAIN THE PAST TWO DAYS AS HAD ANTICIPATED AND AM EXPECTING HIGHEST
PRECIP CHCS OVR W CWA WHERE FFG IS MOD...WITH ISOL/LOCALIZED
FLOODING RATHER THAN WIDESPREAD. THUS WILL HOLD OFF ON FFA AND LET
LATER SHIFT ANALYZE LATEST MODEL RUNS AND TRENDS. DO NOT ANTICIPATE
SCAS ATTM...ALTHOUGH IT MAY GET CLOSE.  DO EXPECT SCEC CONDITIONS.
WINDS DIMINISH SUN NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES. LOWER DEWPTS AND
WK CAA WL MEAN LOWER TEMPS SUN AND SUN NIGHT.

.LONG-TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SAT)...ETA AND GFS DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO
THE PSN OF THE FRONT BY MONDAY...WITH THE GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
SWD MOVEMENT. GFS/ETA PROG WEAK UPPER ENERGY TO MOVE ACRS MAINLY
NORTH OF THE CWFA MONDAY. ALTHOUGH PW VALUES ARE PROGD TO DECREASE
MONDAY ACRS THE CWFA...MSTR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR PCPN. THE GFS
SOLN WOULD SUGGEST MORE STRATIFORM RAIN OWING TO ISENTROPIC LIFT
WHILE THE ETA SOLN...WITH THE FRONT STALLED/RETREATING ACRS THE
CWFA...SUGGEST MORE CONVECTIVE RAIN OWNING TO MSTR CONVERENCE. WL
FCST A BLEND OF BOTH TYPES FOR MONDAY. THE LATEST ETA/GFS/UKMET
CONSISTENT WITH ANOTHER FRONT ENTERING THE REGION TUESDAY...IN
RESPONSE TO UPPER ENERGY MOVG ACRS THE PLAINS. ANTICIPATE AT LEAST
ISOLD CONVECTION ALG IT...WITH MSTR AS THE LIMITING FACTOR. THE GFS
PROGS ANOTHER BOUNDARY TO ENTER THE CWFA THURSDAY...HWR NOT
CONFIDENT IN THIS SOLN SINCE IT IS A DEPARTURE FROM THE PREVIOUS
RUN. WL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FRIDAY/SAT. MARINE...WL LOWER WIND SPEED
AFTER FROPA TUESDAY FROM PREVIOUS FCST AS AVN PROGS ONLY SLIGHT
FALLS IN THICKNESS VALUES.

CRP TE 073/081 065/079/065 454344
VCT TE 070/079 062/077/062 343333
LRD TE 074/080 064/077/065 685333
&&

81/TE...SHORT-TERM
87...LONG-TERM

Hazardous weather outlook, Oct 11, 5:00 AM CST, 14 hours before

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-121100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
600 AM CDT SAT OCT 11 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS TODAY. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO
40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT FOR THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM MEXICO. A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT WILL ADD TO THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE. LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

FOR THE COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS...SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
AND COASTAL BEND. WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON
MONDAY...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE EXPECTED TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS...WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN BEING THE MAIN THREAT. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING DRIER AIR AND STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
INTO THE AREA.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

TMT/TR

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

4 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.

Flash Flood, McMullen

When: October 11, 7:00 PM CST to October 12, 4:30 AM CST
Where: McMullen County, North Central Portion
Reported by: LAW ENFORCEMENT
Coordinates: 28.353, -98.568 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Widespread heavy rainfall across the northern half of McMullen county resulted in high water over several roads. Law enforcement reported 6 inches of water over Highway 72 near Calliham as well as 5 inches of water over Highway 16 near Tilden. Flooding was also reported along Park Roads in the Choke Canyon State Park. See episode narrative below for rainfall totals.

Flash Flood, Live Oak

When: October 11, 7:00 PM CST to 11:00 PM CST
Where: Live Oak County, Northwest Portion
Reported by: LAW ENFORCEMENT
Coordinates: 28.351, -98.125 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Heavy rainfall fell across northwestern La Salle County near the Choke Canyon Reservoir. 6 inches of water was reported along Highway 72 five miles east of Calliham. See episode narrative below for rainfall totals.

Flash Flood, La Salle

When: October 11, 7:00 PM CST to October 12, 9:00 AM CST
Where: La Salle County, Countywide
Reported by: LAW ENFORCEMENT
Coordinates: 28.345, -99.100 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Very heavy rain fell across much of La Salle County on the 11th and into the early morning hours of the 12th. Several roads in Cotulla had water over them. F.M. 624 and F.M. 469 in central La Salle County, southeast of Cotulla, were closed for several hours. 3 motorists were stranded on F.M. 624 around 25 miles southeast of Cotulla and required rescue by helicopter. See episode narrative below for information on rain totals.

Flash Flood, Webb

When: October 11, 11:30 PM CST to October 12, 6:00 AM CST
Where: Webb County, Countywide
Reported by: LAW ENFORCEMENT
Coordinates: 27.761, -99.332 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

Very heavy rainfall began falling across Webb County late on the 11th and continued into the early morning hours of the 12th. Several roads across the county were reported having water over them. Highways 83 and 44 in Northern Webb county were reported flooded by Law enforcement. In addition 1 to 2 feet of water was reported over Interstate 35 in places between mile markers 24 and 36 north of Laredo, stranding several vehicles. Water was also reported over the road along Loop 20 in Northeast Laredo. Media reported a man being resuced from his car after driving into high water in the Las Cruces subdivision. Several low lying intersections in Laredo were closed due to flash flooding. The heavy rains eventually led to the Rio Grande cresting near 20 feet, flooding parking lots and a park near International Bridge I. Chacon Creek near Hwy 359 in Laredo crested and forced the evacuation of several homes along its banks. See episode narrative below for rainfall totals.

What these are

Flash Flood: Flooding that begins within six hours of the rain that causes it, or of a dam or levee failure or ice jam release, often with deadly speed.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Texas in 2003 Every state in 2003 This day in weather history Warnings in Texas, October 2003

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 5371219, 5371220, 5371221, 5371222.