Tornado and Hail in Texas, May 7, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OKLAHOMA
845 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2003

MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES BASED ON LATEST RADAR AND SATELITE TRENDS
WITH PRECIP AND CLOUD COVER. WILL LIKELY SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONT FOR A COUPLE OF MORE HOURS ACROSS SW
ZONES WITH GRADUAL DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WITH LOSS OF
HEATING. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO WAA DEVELOPING NORTH OF WARM FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL INTO NE OKLAHOMA AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW LEVELS HAVE SOME
WORK TO DO WITH 00Z SOUNDING SHOWING STRONG CAPPING INVERSION TO
OVERCOME HERE IN CENTRAL OK. WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY MAY BE SMALL HERE
ACROSS CENTRAL SECTIONS WITH CHANCES LINGERING TOWARD MORNING IN THE
NORTH AND NE. NO CHANGES PAST FIRST PERIOD. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.

30

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353 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2003

REPEATED VISITS BY WAVES IN THE GENERALLY WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER
FLOW WILL KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN OUR FORECAST FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS.  IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN HIGHLIGHTS
FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE TONIGHT... THURSDAY... FRIDAY...
SATURDAY... AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  SUNDAY AND
MONDAY LOOK FAIRLY QUIET AT THIS POINT.

HAVE MADE SOME SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE TEMPERATURE FORECASTS FOR
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.  GENERALLY LOWERED HIGHS ABOUT 5 TO
10 DEGREES AND MADE SIMILAR... ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE AS ABRUPT...
CHANGES TO LOW TEMPERATURES.  BETWEEN THE EXPECTED FRONTAL PASSAGE
AND CLOUD COVER... DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO GET MUCH
ABOVE THE NEW MRF GUIDANCE.

ALSO MODIFIED POPS SOMEWHAT.  IN HOPES THAT THE MODEL FORECAST OF
FULL-SCALE FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL ACTUALLY OCCUR... HAVE
LOWERED/REMOVED POPS SUNDAY.  OBVIOUSLY... IF THE FRONT FAILS TO
MAKE IT AS FAR AS THE GFS SHOWS... THE FORECAST WILL NEED TO BE PUT
BACK THE WAY IT WAS.

OKC   71   87   62   88  / 50   30   30   10
HBR   66   88   57   89  / 30   20   20   10
SPS   70   91   63   93  / 30   20   20   10
GAG   57   85   51   86  / 40   10   10    0
PNC   69   85   59   86  / 50   40   30   10
DUA   73   89   70   91  / 30   40   30   20

FORECAST ID = 23 = CMS

.OUN...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-081200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
500 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK COVERS NORTHERN...WESTERN...
CENTRAL...AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN...CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.

TIMING...
THE MOST LIKELY TIME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM 5 PM
THROUGH 4 AM.

IMPACTS...
THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL...POSSIBLY
UP TO AROUND BASEBALL SIZE AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS TO 70
MPH.

RECOMMENDED ACTIONS...
STORM SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL ACROSS THE
RISK AREA SHOULD LISTEN FOR UPDATES THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND PLAN
FOR POSSIBLE SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

DISCUSSION...
A WARM FRONT LOCATED ALONG THE RED RIVER NORTHWEST ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTH INTO SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA
THIS EVENING. A DRY LINE IS ALSO TAKING SHAPE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS WEST TEXAS...FROM NEAR AMARILLO SOUTH TO LUBBOCK AND WEST OF
MIDLAND. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND
EAST OF THE DRY LINE LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF WEST
TEXAS. THESE STORMS WILL THEN MOVE NORTHEAST TOWARD WESTERN PORTIONS
OF NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING. FAVORABLE WIND
FIELDS AND A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS TO THE EAST OF THE DRY LINE WILL
ALLOW ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TO QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE...WITH
SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG AND TO
THE NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN INTO
CENTRAL OKLAHOMA. IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...
HIGH INSTABILITY AND MODERATE WIND SHEAR WILL ALLOW THESE
THUNDERSTORMS TO BECOME SEVERE.

THE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NORTH AND NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA AND EVENTUALLY NORTH AND EAST OF OKLAHOMA BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING.

PROBABILITY TABLE...
VALID THROUGH 700 AM CDT THURSDAY MAY 8.
PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING IN THE
              NWS NORMAN COUNTY WARNING AREA...60 PERCENT.
PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS IF STORMS OCCUR...80 PERCENT.

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THE ACTIVE SPRING WEATHER PATTERN WILL RESULT IN CONTINUED CHANCES
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NEARLY EVERY DAY THROUGH SATURDAY. GREATER
CHANCES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA FOR THE
MOST PART...WITH LESSER CHANCES ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN
NORTH TEXAS. THE POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER
OUTBREAKS IN PARTS OF THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES AGAIN ON THURSDAY
AND AGAIN SATURDAY...PERHAPS INCLUDING EASTERN PARTS OF THE NORMAN
COUNTY WARNING AREA. SEVERE WEATHER IS ALSO POSSIBLE NEXT TUESDAY.
SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS... ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN HALF OF
OKLAHOMA...SHOULD STAY TUNED FOR UPDATED WEATHER INFORMATION
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK

OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
NONE.

THE NEXT SCHEDULED HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED AT 7 AM
THURSDAY.

30/11

TXZ083-080130-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
809 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2003

THIS SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS FOR HARDEMAN COUNTY.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 14 MILES WEST OF LAZARE AT 809 PM
CDT...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. IF THIS STORM HOLDS TOGETHER IT WILL
MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PART HARDEMAN COUNTY AROUND 830 PM

PEOPLE IN HARDEMAN COUNTY SHOULD MONITOR THIS STORM CLOSELY. LISTEN
FOR WARNINGS AND WATCH FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AS THIS
STORM APPROACHES.

CJS