Damaging Wind in Texas, June 9, 2003

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
850 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2003

UPDATE...

BASED ON CURRENT RADAR COVERAGE OF SQUALL LINE MOVING EAST...WILL
GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE
FORECAST AREA.  ALTHOUGH SQUALL LINE IS MOVING RAPIDLY...GROUND IS
QUITE SATURATED ACROSS SOME AREAS...WITH BARRICADES STILL OVER SOME
LOW WATER CROSSINGS.  ANY WATER CAN CAUSE SOME FLOODING PROBLEMS
OVER ALREADY SATURATED GROUND. EXPECT SQUALL LINE TO WEAKEN OVER
EASTERN COUNTIES WITH CAP STILL IN PLACE...BUT SO FAR STORMS ARE
LOOKING QUITE HEALTHY WITH 1 TO 2 INCH...AND A FEW 3 INCH...
RAINFALL AMOUNTS.

08
-----------
LONG LINE OF STORMS EXTENDED FROM BIG BEND INTO SOUTHEASTERN NEW
MEXIO AT 840 PM...MOVING EAST AROUND 35 MPH. MAY SEE THESE STORMS
MOVE INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF CROCKETT AROUND 11 PM...AND WESTERN
SECTIONS OF IRION AND STERLING COUNTIES AROUND 1 AM. LOW LEVEL JET
WILL BE DEVELOPING AROUND THEN...AND MAY HELP SUSTAIN ELEVATED
STORMS.

NOT PLANNING ON MANY CHANGES TO FORECAST...OTHER THAN TO
INCREASE POPS OVER THE BIG COUNTRY TO 30 PERCENT.

04

...335 PM DISCUSSION BELOW...
.CURRENT...BOUNDARY LAYER VERY MOIST WITH DEWPOINTS RUNNING IN THE
MID TO UPPER 60S. LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS NOT TOO FAR AWAY AT DEL RIO
AND HONDO. FORECAST AREA CLOUD FREE PER VISIBLE IMAGERY. SOUPY
ATMOSPHERE AND SOLAR HEATING RESULTING IN CAPES IN EXCESS OF 2500
J/KG. ONLY SAVING GRACE RIGHT NOW CIN VALUES...WHICH ARE BELOW
NEGATIVE 50 J/KG. PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...UPPER SHORTWAVE OVER
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND NORTHERN MEXICO MOVING INTO SOUTHWEST TEXAS.
OROGRAPHIC CONVECTION FIRING IN RESPONSE ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS.

.DAYS 1-3 (TONIGHT-THURSDAY)...UPPER LEVEL LOW WEST OF SAN DIEGO TO
SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST INTO THE FOUR CORNERS BY WEDNESDAY. A SERIES
OF SHORTWAVES WILL TRAVERSE WEST CENTRAL TEXAS IN SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT IN ADVANCE. TIMING OF DISTURBANCES ALWAYS DIFFICULT...BUT TWO
STAND OUT IN PARTICULAR. ONE TONIGHT...THEN ANOTHER WEDNESDAY. NCEP
MODELS AGREE IN BRINGING SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT...BUT VARY IN STRENGTH AND TRACK. AVN HITTING IT HARD...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH HALF. THINKING HERE IS CONVECTION WILL
CONTINUE FIRING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS...AND
EVENTUALLY BLEED INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS WITH AID OF 35-40 KT LLJ
AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING SHORTWAVE. NCEP MODELS ALSO
IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH WEDNESDAY/S SHORTWAVE AND SUBSEQUENT QPF
OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS. FORECASTER CONFIDENCE HIGH ENOUGH TO
MENTION CHANCE POPS SOUTH HALF TONIGHT...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY FOR
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA.

CRAP SHOOT FOR THE REMAINING PERIODS...AS MODELS NOT IN AGREEMENT
WITH SHORTWAVE STRENGTH...TIMING...ETC. WITH DEEP MOISTURE IN
PLACE...NOT MUCH LIFT NECESSARY TO FIRE CONVECTION...SO GARBAGE
POPS IN ORDER.

NEEDLESS TO SAY...WITH HUGE CAPES...SEVERE ALWAYS A THREAT. AND WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES IN EXCESS OF 1.50 INCHES...FLASH FLOODING
ALSO A CONCERN.

.EXTENDED (FRIDAY-MONDAY)...CANT IGNORE THE POSSIBILITY OF
NORTHWEST FLOW SETTING UP ACROSS THE AREA ONCE AGAIN LATE WEEK INTO
THE WEEKEND...AS CLOSED LOW SITS AND SPINS OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. WITH LITTLE WAVES DIVING INTO THE BACK SIDE OF SAID FEATURE
WILL NEED TO INSERT POPS FOR MAJORITY OF EXTENDED PERIOD...
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES. SURFACE WINDS REMAIN SOUTHEAST
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD PUMPING GOOD GULF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION...
HOWEVER FRONT BEGINS TO WORK INTO THE NORTHERN COUNTIES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. MAY NEED TO LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST IN LATER FORECAST IN THIS TIME FRAME...BUT WILL HOLD
ON TO CURRENT TEMPERATURES FOR NOW. LOOKS TO BE QUITE MUGGY THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

PRELIMINARY CCF...

ABI 071/092/071/092/071  22232
SJT 071/094/071/094/071  42232
JCT 072/092/072/092/072  42222

.SJT...NONE.

27/BRAZZELL/17

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-092215-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
111 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR WESTERN
TEXAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND MOVE INTO WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
OVERNIGHT. THERE COULD BE ONE OR TWO STORMS THAT PRODUCE LARGE HAIL
WEST OF SWEETWATER TO MERTZON TO OZONA. ALSO THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAINS ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU AND SOUTHERN CONCHO
VALLEY TONIGHT. THIS AREA WAS SPARED THE VERY HEAVY RAINS LAST
WEEK...AND A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING COULD OCCUR OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON. WITH A GOOD
DEAL OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AROUND...SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD
BE SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS
TIME.

27/BRAZZELL