Tornadoes and Hail in Nebraska, June 9, 2003

SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
224 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2003

TSTMS TONIGHT AND INTERMITTENT CHCS THRU THE WEEK ARE THE MAIN CONCERNS

18Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACED SFC LOW IN THE NEB PANHANDLE...WITH SFC
TROF/DRYLINE EXTENDING SOUTH THRU SW NEB INTO FAR WESTERN KS.  SFC
MOISTURE AXIS OF LOW/MID 60S EXTENDED NORTH THRU OKLAHOMA THRU OUR
CWA.  SFC WARM FRONT WAS LOCATED ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE
CWA AND EXTENDED SOUTHEAST TOWARD OMAHA.  SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
FEW CU HAVE DEVELOPED IN NORTHERN CWA LAST COUPLE OF HOURS WITH JUST
SOME ISOLATED -SHRA ATTM.  18Z SOUNDING FROM LBF INDICATES WARM H7
TEMPS NEAR 11C AND LAPS DATA ALSO INDICATES STRONGER CAP ACROSS
WESTERN AND SOUTHWEST ZONES.

EXPECT INITIAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS NORTHERN CWA THIS AFTN IN
VCNTY OF WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY...THEN MORE WIDESPREAD TSTM
DEVELOPMENT AFT 00Z THIS EVENING AS COOL FRONT APPROACHES AND
CROSSES CWA ROUGHLY BTWN 03-12Z.  LAPS DATA INDICATES A QUITE
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH SFC BASED CAPES 2500-3500J/KG ATTM ALTHOUGH
AFOREMENTIONED CAP STILL STRONG IN SOUTH AND WEST.  SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN ZONES EARLY THIS EVENING THEN
LINEAR CONVECTION ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT.  EXPECT TSTMS MORE
WIDESPREAD TONIGHT WITH FROPA AND INCREASING LLVL JET.

TSTM TO END BY 12Z AS FRONT EXITS THE CWA...AND BOTH SFC AND H85
FRONT EXIT CWA TUESDAY SO ANY ADDITIONAL CONVECTION ALONG BOUNDARY
SHLD BE SOUTHEAST OF CWA.

MODELS LESS IMPRESSIVE WITH CONVECTION IN UPSLOPE FLOW ACROSS THE
HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH MAY REACH WESTERN CWA AFT
MIDNIGHT.  HAVE MAINTAINED CHCS IN WESTERN COUNTIES ONLY.  TSTMS
CHCS REENTER FCST WED AFTN/EVE WITH APPROACH OF MID LEVEL WAVE.
PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE THRU SAT WITH NO SIGNIFICANT CHGS MADE THURS
THRU SAT.  DRY CONDITIONS FCST SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH RIDGING AHEAD
OF WEST COAST TROF.

.GID...NONE.

FAY

KSZ005>007-017>019-NEZ039>041-046>049-060>064-072>077-082>087-101200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
514 PM CDT MON JUN 9 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND
PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG THE DRY LINE
OVER WESTERN NEBRASKA AND NORTHWESTERN KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST THROUGHOUT THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS ALONG AND WEST
OF A SAINT PAUL TO GRAND ISLAND TO MINDEN TO STOCKTON KANSAS LINE
THROUGH 7 PM. EXPECT HAIL IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS. ALSO...WINDS IN EXCESS
OF 70 MPH ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.

THE THUNDERSTORM AREA WILL SHIFT EAST AND AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF
HIGHWAY 281 SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR SEVERE WEATHER AFTER 7 PM. THE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL START TO DECREASE TOWARD MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND AGAIN FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS HIGHLY RECOMMENDED OVER ALL OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FOR THIS EVENING
AND TONIGHT.

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