Hail and Damaging Winds in Texas, June 26, 2003

SOUTH PLAINS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
240 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2003

DAY ONE...
SFC COLD FRONT DRAPED ACRS THE FA ALTHOUGH EXACT POSITIONING HARD TO
DISCERN GIVEN NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WHICH HAVE RESULTED IN
OVERALL ELY FLOW. BEST GUESS ATTM IS THAT CONVECTION WHICH CONTINUES
ACRS SERN ZONES IS ALONG BOUNDARY. MEANWHILE FURTHER NORTH
FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN 850 TO 700MB LAYER AIDING IN FURTHER
CONVECTIVE INITIATION. FURTHER WEST OVER ERN NM BATCH OF STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY INITIATED IN AND CONTINUES TO MOVE ALONG
850MB FRONT OR SIMILAR FRONTOGENETIC ZONE WITH MODERATE E/NE UPSLOPE
FLOW. MODELS ZEROING ON SOLUTION OF WIDESPREAD CONVECTION DOMINATING
NW TEXAS DURING THE MORNING HOURS. DRIER AIR WORKING INTO THE FA AS
THE MORNING PROGRESSES COMBINED WITH INCREASING NW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD
SHUNT PRECIP S/SE OF FA DURING THE AFTN...ALTHOUGH A FEW RESIDUAL
SHOWERS OR STORMS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTN HOURS...MAINLY CNTL
AND EAST. FINAL POPS WILL BE DETERMINED SHORTLY BEFORE ZFP
ISSUANCE...BUT WILL PROBABLY CONTAIN LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL POPS MOST
AREAS.

SFC HIGH SETTLES OVER THE PANHANDLE TONIGHT WITH LIGHT SFC WINDS
ACRS THE FA. EXPECT GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES ALTHOUGH SOME DEVELOPMENT
OF FOG OR STRATUS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. TEMP AND WIND FCST IN
GOOD SHAPE WITH ONLY MINOR TWEAKS MADE. FCSTID = 07

DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
RETURN LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST. PLENTY OF SUN WILL
ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S. BY LATE
AFTN...SCT TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
NEW MEXICO THEN DRIFT SOUTH-SOUTHEAST IN WEAK NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS DISCUSSIONS...THE WESTERN SOUTH
PLAINS WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE FAVORED AREA FOR EVENING/NIGHTTIME
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS PATTERN LOOKS TO REPEAT ITSELF AGAIN SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. BEYOND THE WEEKEND...UPPER RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD AND
EXPAND NORTH AND EAST RESULTING IN CLIMBING TEMPS AND LITTLE IF ANY
CHANCE OF STORMS. FCSTID = 21

FRIONA      74 53 85 58 / 70 00 00 20
TULIA       75 54 86 61 / 70 00 00 10
PLAINVIEW   76 55 86 62 / 70 00 00 10
LEVELLAND   77 56 87 62 / 70 00 00 20
LUBBOCK     78 57 87 63 / 70 00 00 10
BROWNFIELD  80 58 88 63 / 70 00 00 20
CHILDRESS   78 59 89 66 / 70 00 00 10
SPUR        80 58 88 65 / 70 00 00 10
ASPERMONT   82 62 88 66 / 70 00 00 10

.LBB...NONE.

TXZ021>044-252300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX
1100 AM CDT WED JUN 25 2003

THIS IS A HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE EXTREME SOUTHERN
PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS.

.DAY ONE...

CONVECTIVE

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE EXTREME SOUTHERN PANHANDLE...SOUTH PLAINS AND ROLLING PLAINS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.

ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD
FRONT MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING. MEANWHILE...ISOLATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG A DRYLINE IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO. GRADUALLY THE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AS THEY MOVE EAST TO
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. A FEW OF THE STORMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT BEING
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

JH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK, TX
550 PM CDT WED JUN 25 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0600 PM    FLOYDADA                  TX   .88 INCH HAIL
06/25/03   FLOYD                          REPORTED AT FIRE STN.

0839 PM    2 N ASPERMONT             TX   1.75 INCH HAIL
06/25/03   STONEWALL                      REPORTED BY SHERIFF

MRC