Funnel Cloud in Texas, June 26, 2003

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
955 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2003

CONVECTION ALREADY FIRING OVER COASTAL ZONES AT MID MORNING IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE SEABREEZE. MEANWHILE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED
OVER RED RIVER VALLEY TO THE SOUTH PLAINS AT 14Z. MSAS ANALYSIS
SHOWS SFC PRESSURE RISES OF 3 MB/3 HRS BEHIND FRONT...NOT HUGE BUT
ENOUGH PUSH TO GET THE FRONT INTO THE CWA TNGT. 12Z LCH SOUNDING
SHOWS UNCAPPED...NEARLY SATURATED ATMOSPHERE WITH PW OF 2.29 INCHES.
SEABREEZE WILL BE MAIN FOCUS FOR TSRA DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTN WITH
STORMS FIRING ALONG PREFRONTAL TROF OVER NRN ZONES LATE IN THE DAY.
NO CHANGES TO POPS EXCEPT TO UP COASTAL ZONES TO LIKELY.

BEST UPPER LEVEL DIFLUENCE NOW OVER NORTH TX WILL SPREAD OVER CWA
TNGT WITH SFC FRONT AND 850 MB CONVERGENCE ZONES FOCUSING ACTIVITY.
WEAK WIND PROFILE FAVORS SLOW MOVING STORMS SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN IN FCST. WILL ALSO REISSUE HWOHGX TO MENTION
FUNNEL CLOUDS/WATERSPOUTS. HOWEVER...WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF
SEVERE. CANT RULE OUT A POSSIBLE DOWNBURST BUT RISK APPEARS REMOTE.

35/47

.HGX...NONE.

CLL TB 090/070 090/067 091 652
IAH TB 090/071 090/068 091 772
GLS TT 089/076 089/076 087 773

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT STILL ON SCHEDULE TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS LATER
TODAY. THE ONLY REMAINING QUESTION IS HOW FAR OFF THE COAST WILL THE
BOUNDARY MAKE IT? NOT SURPRISINGLY...THE MODELS ARE IN TOTAL
DISAGREEMENT. THE ETA IS THE SLOWEST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS...AND
THE AVN IS THE FASTEST. SINCE THIS IS SUMMER...COLD FRONTS USUALLY
DO NOT BLAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND OFF THE COAST LIKE THE AVN
IS ADVERTISING. WILL LEAN MORE TOWARD THE ETA SOLUTION...AND MOVE
THE FRONT OFF THE COAST BEFORE STALLING. THE ATMOSPHERE IS RATHER JUICY
ACROSS THE REGION...SO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS A GOOD POSSIBILITY
WITH SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS. ANOTHER FACTOR SUGGESTING A HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL IS THE RELATIVELY LIGHT FLOW ALOFT...SO STORMS WILL
NOT BE MOVING PARTICULARLY FAST.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GOOD. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE IN THE 90S...BUT THE AIR WILL BE NOTICEABLY DRIER AND
EVENING TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER. IT LOOKS LIKE THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME ON TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. 46/33

GMZ330-335-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-271200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1000 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS THROUGH
TONIGHT...

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS A FRONT APPROACHES SOUTHEAST
TEXAS. A NEARLY SATURATED AIRMASS COMBINED WITH SLOW MOVEMENT OF THE
STORMS WILL FAVOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH
TONIGHT WILL AVERAGE 1/2 TO 1 INCH...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF 2 TO 4
INCHES POSSIBLE. THESE HEAVY AMOUNTS COULD LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING OF
STREETS...FEEDER ROADS...AND LOW LYING AREAS.

IN ADDITION...ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE FORMATION
OF FUNNEL CLOUDS OR WATERSPOUTS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE
COAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

GMZ330-335-350-355-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-
235>238-
261700-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
853 AM CDT THU JUN 26 2003

...FUNNEL CLOUDS AND WATERSPOUTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...

A VERY WARM TROPICAL ATMOSPHERE REMAINS OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS
MORNING. RAPIDLY DEVELOPING CUMULUS CLOUDS...WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARIES
COUPLED WITH A RELATIVELY WEAK MID-LEVEL WIND FIELD WILL PROVIDE THE
INGREDIENTS FOR POSSIBLE FUNNEL CLOUD AND WATERSPOUT DEVELOPMENT
THROUGH THIS MORNING.

THESE FUNNEL CLOUDS RARELY MAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO THE GROUND
AND ARE USUALLY SHORT LIVED. KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY AND BE PREPARED
TO SEEK SHELTER SHOULD ONE DESCEND TO THE GROUND.

WATERSPOUTS TYPICALLY LAST 8 TO 12 MINUTES AND CAN PRODUCE WINDS IN
EXCESS OF 40 KNOTS. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN A GOOD DISTANCE AWAY
FROM THESE FEATURES.