Hail in Texas, April 20, 2003

COASTAL BEND FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
126 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2003

SHORT-TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...CONCUR WITH THE GFS/ETA THAT AN
UPPER DISUTRBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TDA. BOTH GFS/ETA PROG
INCREASING PW VALUES/DECREASING THERMODYNAMIC CAP TDA. EXPECT
QUASI-STATIONARY BNDRY TO TRIGGER SCT CONVECTION OVR THE REGION
TDA...WITH THE GREATEST POPS EAST OWING TO MSTR CONSIDERATIONS.
DECREASING UPPER DYNAMICS EXPECTED TNGT...HWR WL RETAIN LOWER POPS
OVR THE REGION OWING TO MSTR CONVERGENCE. WIND OVR THE WATERS TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERION DRG THE PD OWING PROXIMITY OF SFC BNDRY.

LONG-TERM(12Z MON THRU SAT)...QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL
BOUNDARY/500HPA SHORTWAVES/JET DYNAMICS TO PROVIDE FORCING IN AN
UNSTABLE/MOIST ENVIRONMENT MONDAY/TUESDAY. WEAKENING OF WINDS AND
COOLING IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE ADDS FAVORABILITY. WILL INDICATE
CHANCE POPS. GFS INDICATES HIGH PWAT SURGES WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WITH
WEAK 500HPA SHORTWAVES/JET DYNAMICS/MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES. GFS
RECENTLY INDICATED HIGH PWAT SURGES OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND
WAS DRASTICALLY IN ERROR. WITH WINDS/TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TO
UNFAVORABLY INCREASE IN THE LOWER TROPOSPHERE...AM INCLINED TO OMIT
POPS AND LET THE NEXT SHIFT MAKE ANOTHER ASSESSMENT. MESOSCALE
BOUNDARY LIKELY TO STALL ALONG THE COAST FRIDAY BEFORE DISSIPATING
AND ALLOWING RENEWED ONSHORE FLOW SATURDAY. SCA CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WITH STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET AND
THERMAL/PRESSURE GRADIENTS. MEX TEMPERATURE TRENDS REASONABLE AND IN
LINE WITH CURRENT GRIDS.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS:
CRP EC 081/069 077/067 077 43423
VCT EC 080/065 074/063 074 42323
LRD EC 085/069 077/068 077 32433

.CRP...NONE.

87/SHORT-TERM
85/LONG-TERM

TXZ229>234-239>247-211100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
622 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE REGION
LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG TODAY...WITH
GUSTY WIND AND SMALL HAIL. RAINFALL TOTALS MAY EXCEED ONE INCH
TODAY...GENERALLY NORTH OF AN ARTESIA WELLS...GEORGE WEST...VICTORIA
LINE...AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUALLY RE-DEVELOP ALONG A
QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WATERS
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

WC/BB

TXZ229>234-239>247-202300-

AREA THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
615 AM CDT SUN APR 20 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE TODAY...

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS TODAY. IN
ADDITION...A SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY
ACROSS THE REGION. FURTHER...MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE
DURING THE DAY ACROSS THE AREA. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS LATER TODAY.

SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG...WITH GUSTY WIND TO 40 MPH AND SMALL
HAIL. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. RAINFALL TOTALS MAY
EXCEED ONE INCH...AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUALLY
RE-DEVELOP ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...GENERALLY NORTH OF
AN ARTESIA WELLS...GEORGE WEST...VICTORIA LINE.

RESIDENTS ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THIS DEVELOPING
WEATHER SITUATION AND BE ALERT TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER
CONDITIONS. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND SPOTTER GROUPS SHOULD
BE PREPARED FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL RADIO...OR TELEVISION
FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION.

WC