Hail and Damaging Winds in Indiana, April 20, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
310 AM EST SUN APR 20 2003

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS DEAL WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES TODAY AND EARLY
TONIGHT.

SURFACE ANALYSIS AT 07Z SHOWS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS WESTERN WISCONSIN WITH A
COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA AND WESTERN MISSOURI.  RADAR
AND LIGHTNING CHARTS INDICATE A CONCENTRATED CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS
FROM NEAR SAINT LOUIS TO NORTHERN ARKANSAS. MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  FOR TODAY AND THIS EVENING I
HAVE GONE MORE WITH THE MESOETA AND THEN WITH A MODEL BLEND OF GFS
AND ETA AFTERWARDS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE MESOETA MOVES CD FRONT
ACROSS OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE 21Z-03Z PERIOD. AT 21Z IT SHOWS
LIFTED INDEX OF -5 WITH CAPES ALMOST TO 2000 J/KG. EVEN THOUGH
CURRENT THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR WEST ARE CURRENTLY WEAKENING...WILL KEEP
MENTION OF A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AS AIR MASS BECOMES
MORE UNSTABLE. WILL GO WITH UNQUALIFIED POPS ALL AREAS TODAY.

MODELS SHOW RAPID DRYING BEHIND CD FNT TONIGHT AND WILL END ALL
PRECIPITATION BY MIDNIGHT. BOTH ETA AND GFS BRING SOME WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE BACK INTO OUR NORTHERN FORECAST AREA BY LATE MONDAY. THEY
ALSO BRING A VORT MAX TO OUR NE FORECAST AREA WITH ETA BEING A LITTLE
STRONGER. WILL GO WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATE MONDAY N AND NE WITH
A SLIGHT CHANCE SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.

WILL GO A FEW DEGREES ABOVE MAV AND MET TEMPS TODAY GIVEN CD FNT WILL
ARRIVE LATE TODAY AND PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE CONTINUOUS. IN MOST
OTHER PERIODS WILL GO PRETTY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS.

MODELS ARE A LITTLE FARTHER NORTHEAST WITH UPR LOW ON TUESDAY...SO
WILL GO WITH MORE SUN BY THEN.  ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO EXTENDED.

.IND...NONE.

HENDRICKSON

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-211100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
600 AM EST SUN APR 20 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL INDIANA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

OCCASIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR TODAY AND SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE ENDING.

THE SEVERE STORM PREDICATION CENTER INDICATES THERE IS A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.  THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL
BE DAMAGING WINDS...BUT LARGE HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE. THE MOST LIKELY
TIME FRAME FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM AROUND NOON TO
EARLY EVENING.  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL INDIANA
LATE TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT AND THE THREAT OF STRONG STORMS WILL
END ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES, OR
CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/IND

JEH