Hail and Damaging Wind in Tennessee, May 2, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
915 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2003

SHOWERS AND STORMS APPEAR TO BE IN CONJUNCTION WITH A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT IS POSITIONED ROUGHLY ALONG THE MS AND OHIO RIVERS.
THIS BOUNDARY WILL PUSH SLOWLY SOUTHWARD TODAY AND WILL PROVIDE
SOUTHERN AREAS WITH THE STRONGEST AFTERNOON STORMS. MODELS INDICATE
FURTHER DESTABILIZATION AGAIN TODAY ACROSS THE MID STATE SO THE
SOUTHWARD SWEEPING BOUNDARY AND ANY RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES WILL SERVE
AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTION TODAY.

AFTERNOON CAPE VALUES WILL AGAIN INCREASE TO AS HIGH AS 1500-2000
J/KG ACROSS THE SOUTH AND GENERALLY NEAR 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE NORTH.

CURRENT FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE WITH 50 TO 60 PERCENT POPS.
OTHERWISE...WILL UPDATE ZONES LATER THIS MORNING WHEN THE
NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHIFT BECOMES MORE EVIDENT.

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.BNA...NONE.

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075>080-093>097-031030-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
530 AM CDT FRI MAY 2 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN MIDDLE
TENNESSEE THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY REACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL. THE
STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AFTER A COLD
FRONT PASSES. ONLY A FEW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A SERIES OF DISTURBANCE MOVING OUT OF THE PLAINS WILL BRING SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS
MAY BRING ANOTHER POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE WEATHER TO THE AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD BE ON ALERT
STATUS FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION LATER TODAY.

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