Hail in South Dakota, August 17, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
235 PM MDT SUN AUG 17 2003

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS ARE PCPN CHANCES AND TEMPS ASSOCIATED WITH
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT 48 TO 72
HRS. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT ON GENERAL TRACK AND STRENGTH OF
SYSTEM...BUT DIFFER SOME ON MOVEMENT OF EMBEDDED SMALLER WAVES AND
THEREFORE ACCOMPANYING PCPN. GENERALLY FOLLOWED MORE REASONABLE ETA
PCPN AND TEMP PATTERNS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS PLACES MAIN LOW NEAR D07 WITH COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN SD. FRONT WILL MOVE VERY SLOWLY
EAST INTO CENTRAL SD THIS EVE. TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL KEEP NORTHWEST WINDS ON THE BREEZY SIDE INTO THIS
EVENING...BEFORE SLOWLY DECREASING OVERNIGHT.

500MB UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN OVER SOUTHWEST MT...SLOWLY MOVING
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO WY. ISOLATED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER THE
HILLS...WHILE MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY IS FIRING OVER EASTERN WY AS
SHRTWV ENERGY AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER WY AND CO ROTATES
NORTHWARD. THIS WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS...WITH THE
BETTER CHANCES BEING OVER NORTHEAST WY AND FAR WESTERN SD TONIGHT
AND MONDAY AS 700MB LOW APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE THREAT FOR
SEVERE STORMS IS MINIMAL...BUT A FEW STORMS WITH HAIL AND STRONG
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY
AGAIN TOMORROW WITH CLOUD COVER AND PCPN COVERAGE AFFECTING THEM.
BUMPED TEMPS UP INTO THE 90S ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA WHERE THE MOST
SUN IS EXPECTED...WITH ONLY LOWER 80S OVER NORTHEAST WY AND
NORTHWEST SD WHERE MORE CLOUDS AND BETTER CHANCES FOR PCPN ARE
EXPECTED.

500MB LOW MOVES ACROSS WESTERN NEB AND SD ON TUE AND TUE NIGHT...SO
WILL KEEP 20 AND 30 POPS IN THE FORECAST. HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED TO
GENERALLY BE IN THE 80S...MOSTLY 70S IN THE HILLS. COULD BE SOME
ISOLATED SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY AS LOW EXITS...BUT WILL LEAVE DRY FOR
NOW.

UPPER HIGH...OVER THE WEST COAST NOW...WILL THEN MOVE OVER THE
ROCKIES LATE IN THE WEEK. THIS WILL BRING A BIT WARMER AND DRIER AIR
BACK INTO THE REGION. THERE MAY BE A WEAK DISTURBANCE OR TWO THAT
MOVES OVER THE RIDGE AND ACROSS THE AREA IN THE EXTENDED...BUT AT
THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WOULD BE RATHER
ISOLATED...SO WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE FORECAST DRY.

.UNR...NONE.

ST

SDZ001-002-012>014-024>032-041>044-046-047-049-072>074-WYZ054>058-
071-181230-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
630 AM MDT SUN AUG 17 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA AND
NORTHEASTERN WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST
THROUGH THE EVENING...MORE NUMEROUS OVER NORTHEASTERN WYOMING AND
FAR NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BECOME SEVERE...HOWEVER STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND
SMALL HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY.