Damaging Wind in South Carolina, May 6, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
317 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2003

AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS N FA AT TIME. STILL WAITING OUT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE. AREA OF TRW IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THIS ACTIVITY MOVING INTO WESTERN CAROLINAS AT TIME...AND
STRENGTHENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING ACROSS AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

PRIMARY THREAT LOOKS TO BE DAMAGING WINDS ALTHOUGH TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF SHEAR. SOME REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL
UPSTREAM AS WELL...BUT WBZ WOULD INDICATE THIS SHOULD BE ISOLATED
AROUND HERE. ACTIVITY SHOULD REACH W FA 2130-22Z.

A TORNADO WATCH HAS JUST BEEN ISSUED TIL 8 PM FOR SC ZONES.

BACK DOOR COLD FRONT STILL EDGING S INTO NC ON FRI AND SAT. THIS
BOUNDARY STILL EXPECTED TO STAY TO N OF THE AREA.

WARM AIRMASS WITH FAIRLY HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL PERSIST INTO MON. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUT AN END TO THE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH AND
HUMIDITY ON MON.

ONLY POPLESS DAY IS TUE..BUT THU MAY BE RESTRICTED TO IGNITION ALONG
SEABREEZE. KEPT HIGHER POPS ON WED WITH A LEE SIDE TROUGH AND SUN
NIGHT INTO MON WITH NEXT COLD FRONT.

MARINE: WINDS HAVE COME DOWN ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTN AND ARE
LESS THAN SCA LEVELS. HOWEVER...WILL HOLD ONTO SCA NC PORTION FOR 5
TO 6 FT SEAS. WINDS TO BE GUSTY NEAR TSTMS TNGT. SW WIND MAINTAINED
THROUGHOUT FCST. MODELS INDICATING SURGE WED NIGHT AND WILL
ADVERTISE SCA WINDS NC PORTION NOW AND SEE HOW THINGS DEVELOP.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
ILM 070/087 070/087 8553
LBT 068/085 067/089 8553
FLO 069/087 068/090 8553
MYR 071/084 071/085 8553

.ILM...
.NC...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SURF CITY TO LITTLE RIVER INLET.
.SC...TORNADO WATCH.

PUBLIC: DIGIORGI
MARINE: PJN

FXUS62 KILM 061921
AFDILM

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
317 PM EDT TUE MAY 6 2003

AREA OF SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS N FA AT TIME. STILL WAITING OUT
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE. AREA OF TRW IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THIS ACTIVITY MOVING INTO WESTERN CAROLINAS AT TIME...AND
STRENGTHENING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE MOVING ACROSS AREA LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

PRIMARY THREAT LOOKS TO BE DAMAGING WINDS ALTHOUGH TORNADOES ARE
POSSIBLE GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF SHEAR. SOME REPORTS OF LARGE HAIL
UPSTREAM AS WELL...BUT WBZ WOULD INDICATE THIS SHOULD BE ISOLATED
AROUND HERE. ACTIVITY SHOULD REACH W FA 2130-22Z.

A TORNADO WATCH HAS JUST BEEN ISSUED TIL 8 PM FOR SC ZONES.

BACK DOOR COLD FRONT STILL EDGING S INTO NC ON FRI AND SAT. THIS
BOUNDARY STILL EXPECTED TO STAY TO N OF THE AREA.

WARM AIRMASS WITH FAIRLY HIGH DEWPOINTS WILL PERSIST INTO MON. A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUT AN END TO THE UNSEASONABLE WARMTH AND
HUMIDITY ON MON.

ONLY POPLESS DAY IS TUE..BUT THU MAY BE RESTRICTED TO IGNITION ALONG
SEABREEZE. KEPT HIGHER POPS ON WED WITH A LEE SIDE TROUGH AND SUN
NIGHT INTO MON WITH NEXT COLD FRONT.

MARINE: WINDS HAVE COME DOWN ACROSS THE WATERS THIS AFTN AND ARE
LESS THAN SCA LEVELS. HOWEVER...WILL HOLD ONTO SCA NC PORTION FOR 5
TO 6 FT SEAS. WINDS TO BE GUSTY NEAR TSTMS TNGT. SW WIND MAINTAINED
THROUGHOUT FCST. MODELS INDICATING SURGE WED NIGHT AND WILL
ADVERTISE SCA WINDS NC PORTION NOW AND SEE HOW THINGS DEVELOP.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
ILM 070/087 070/087 8553
LBT 068/085 067/089 8553
FLO 069/087 068/090 8553
MYR 071/084 071/085 8553

.ILM...
.NC...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SURF CITY TO LITTLE RIVER INLET.
.SC...TORNADO WATCH.

PUBLIC: DIGIORGI
MARINE: PJN

NCZ087-096-097-099>101-SCZ017-023-024-032>034-039-046-070100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON NC
1120 AM EDT TUE MAY 6 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NORTH CAROLINA AND
NORTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA.

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO. THERE IS ALSO A CHANCE OF
SOME HAIL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT DEADLY CLOUD TO
GROUND LIGHTNING AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. COMMUNITIES EXPERIENCING
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD EXPECT 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN.

THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND IN COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT.

.WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ON WEDNESDAY.

RIVER LEVELS WILL AGAIN BE ON THE RISE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

DIGIORGI

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