Hail and Damaging Winds in South Carolina, May 16 to 18, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
221 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2003

THE SURFACE TROUGH THAT CURRENTLY EXTENDS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
AND THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS MORNING/S THUNDERSTORMS ARE
HELPING TO CAUSE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. MODERATE INSTABILITY
AND FAVORABLE WET-BULB ZERO HEIGHTS SUPPORT A POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE APPROACHING
BACKDOOR FRONT AND H5 SHORTWAVE TROUGH LATE SUPPORT KEEPING POPS
OVERNIGHT. CHANCE POPS MAY BE HIGH ENOUGH BECAUSE BOTH THE ETA AND
GFS FORECAST RISING H5 HEIGHTS AND BECAUSE OF THE DIURNAL TIMING.

EXPECT LITTLE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. BOTH THE
ETA AND GFS SHOW THE H5 LOW CURRENTLY OVER OKLAHOMA SLOWING AND
SINKING SOUTHWARD BEFORE REACHING THE FORECAST AREA. H5 RIDGING
APPEARS TO DOMINATE HERE. HOWEVER...ISENTROPIC LIFT OR THE WEDGE
FRONT IN THE AREA SHOULD CAUSE SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

PLAN TO CUT THE GUIDANCE HIGH TEMPERATURES BECAUSE OF WEDGING. ALSO
PLAN TO LEAN TOWARD THE LOWER GUIDANCE POPS SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT BECAUSE H85 WARM ADVECTION APPEARS WEAK AND BECAUSE OF THE H5
RIDGING.

EXTENDED...PLAN TO FORECAST CHANCE POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE GFS
SHOWS A CONTINUED WEDGE PATTERN EARLY THEN A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO
THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND STALLING. WILL CONTINUE THE SAME TEMPERATURE
FORECAST WHICH IS BELOW THE ENSEMBLE MEAN EARLY BECAUSE OF THE WEDGE
PATTERN...AND NEAR THE MEAN THE REST OF THE PERIOD.

FCSTID =    5
CAE   68  79  67  76 /  40  50  40  50
AGS   67  83  66  79 /  40  50  40  50
SSC   67  79  65  75 /  40  50  40  50
OGB   68  81  67  77 /  40  50  40  50

.CAE...
GA...NONE.
SC...NONE.

RJL

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-161200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
500 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2003

CORRECTED FOR DATE...
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MIDLANDS OF SOUTH CAROLINA
AND THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA OF GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...

PATCHY DENSE FOG EARLY THIS MORNING OTHERWISE NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER
IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

RCC

SCZ016-022-029-031-038-161647-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1047 AM EDT FRI MAY 16 2003

A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN KERSHAW...LEE...SUMTER AND
CLARENDON WILL CONTINUE MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. THE STRONGER STORMS
WILL PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH AND
OCCASIONAL RAIN.

THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING OUT OF KERSHAW...LEE...SUMTER AND
CLARENDON COUNTIES BY 1230 PM.  THE STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN HALF CHESTERFIELD COUNTY BETWEEN 11 AM AND 1 PM.

SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-GAZ040-063>065-
077-161829-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
1229 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2003

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS CENTRAL SOUTH CAROLINA AND THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER AREA...

THE AIRMASS ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE AFTERNOON HEATING AND A WEAK TROUGH
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.

THE STORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE
TIL AROUND MIDNIGHT. A FEW OF THE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE...
PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

CURRENT DATA DOES NOT FAVOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT. THEREFORE...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND SPOTTER ACTIVATION
SHOULD NOT BE REQUIRED.

CDL

SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-GAZ040-063>065-
077-161957-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
157 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2003

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL SAVANNAH RIVER
AREA SOUTH AND EAST OF AUGUSTA...ACROSS AIKEN...LEXINGTON ...BAMBERG
AND ORANGEBURG COUNTIES. THE STORMS ARE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT
15 MPH. THE STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL TO ONE HALF INCH AND
WIND GUST TO 40 MPH.

SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-GAZ040-063>065-
077-162041-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
241 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2003

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED EAST OF A LINE FROM AUGUSTA TO
LEXINGTON. THE STORMS WERE MOVING TO THE NORTHEAST AT 15 MILES PER
HOUR. THE STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE HAIL ONE HALF OF AN INCH OR
LESS...WINDS TO 45 MILES PER HOUR...RAINFALL AMOUNTS NEAR ONE INCH
AS THEY PASS.

THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING INTO CALHOUN...RICHLAND...KERSHAW
...FAIRFIELD...CLARENDON AND SUMTER COUNTIES BETWEEN 3 PM AND  4 PM.

SCZ015-016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-GAZ040-063>065-
077-162129-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLUMBIA SC
329 PM EDT FRI MAY 16 2003

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH 6 PM ACROSS THE
AREA...GENERALLY EAST OF A AUGUSTA TO LEXINGTON LINE. THE STRONGER
STORMS WILL PRODUCE HAIL TO ONE HALF INCH...WIND GUSTS TO 45 MILES
PER HOUR AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 1 INCH IN AN HOUR AS THEY MOVE
TO THE NORTHEAST AT 15 MILES PER HOUR.

THE STORMS WILL BE MOVING INTO SOUTHERN KERSHAW...SUMTER...LEE AND
CLARENDON COUNTIES BETWEEN 330 PM AND 5 PM.