Hail and Damaging Wind in South Carolina, August 9, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
317 PM EDT SAT AUG 9 2003

AFTERNOON CONVECTION IN FULL SWING...WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND DRY
AIR ALOFT OVER A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER INTERACTING WITH A WEAK UPPER
VORT. NOT MUCH STORM MOVEMENT...SO CELLS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED
CAREFULLY FOR POTENTIAL EXCESSIVE RAINFALL. WILL HOLD OFF ON FLOOD
WATCH AT THIS JUNCTURE. EXPECT MOST ACTIVITY TO FADE BY
EVENING...AND PER RECENT TRENDS...HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY DENSE FOG
WORDING OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY COULD BE INTERESTING IF THE ETA IS CORRECT IN ITS HANDLING OF
A STRONG VORT WHICH PIVOTS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LONGWAVE TROF AND
APPROACHES OUR MOUNTAINS TOMORROW EVENING. TIME HEIGHTS SHOW VERY
DRY AIR IN THE MID LEVELS...WITH WET BULB ZEROES PROGD BELOW 10K
FEET ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN AND BELOW 11K FEET FOOTHILLS. GFS IS
SLOWER...BRINGING ITS SHORTAVE INTO THE REGION LATER IN THE SUNDAY
NITE PERIOD. REGARDLESS...CHANCE POPS IN ORDER ALL AREAS...HIGHEST
IN THE NORTH AND WEST. BOTH MODELS KEEP THIS FEATURE IN OUR VICINITY
FOR MOST OF SUNDAY NITE...ALTHOUGH BETTER DPVA WILL BE LIMITED TO
OUR FOOTHILLS AND THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. MODELS ALSO ADVERTISE A
30H JETLET ROUNDING THE UPPER TROF THAT ENHANCES UPPER DIVERGENCE
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

UPPER PATTERN SHOWS SIGNS OF CHANGE BEGINNING MONDAY WITH SLOW
RETROGRADE OF THE UPPER TROF AND ALLOWING ATLANTIC RIDGING TO SLOWLY
BUILD INTO THE CAROLINAS. WILL MAINTAIN CHANCE POPS FOR ALL
AREAS...WITH INCREASED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND SLIGHTLY WARMER
TEMPERATURES.

FOR THE EXTENDED...MOST OF THE LONGER RANGE MODELS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT KEEPING THE UPPER TROF TO OUR WEST. CANADIAN AND NOGAPS
QUITE INSISTENT ON PARKING A PIECE OF ATLANTIC RIDGING SQUARELY
OVER OUR FORECAST AREA. SURFACE BOUNDARY...MEANWHILE...MEANDERS
SLOWLY TO THE SOUTH...KEEPING POTENTIAL FOR UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR A
WHILE. KEPT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THROUGH SATURDAY
FOR ALL OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. WE KEPT POPS BELOW CHANCE CATEGORY IN NORTH CAROLINA FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY...SINCE MOISTURE FLUX SHOULD BE CUT OFF FROM THOSE AREAS
IF RIDGE ALOFT DOES INDEED BUILD IN. INDICATED SLIGHT WARMING OF
TEMPERATURES THROUGH LATE WEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE IS BUST POTENTIAL
GIVEN INCREASINGLY LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE REGION BY LATE
WEEK AND GFS HINTS THAT A SYSTEM OF TROPICAL ORIGIN MAY IMPACT
SOUTHEAST STATES AS NEXT WEEKEND NEARS.

FCSTID =   44
GSP   68  86  69  87 /  50  30  30  30
AND   68  87  69  88 /  50  30  30  30
CLT   69  86  69  87 /  50  30  30  30
HKY   65  85  66  86 /  50  40  40  40
AVL   63  82  64  83 /  50  40  40  40

.GSP...
GA...NONE.
NC...NONE.
SC...NONE.

BURRUS

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033>037-048>059-062>072-082-SCZ001>014-
019-091215-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
610 AM EDT SAT AUG 9 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...
UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA...AND EXTREME NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...

AREAS OF MORNING FOG WILL GIVE WAY TO AN INCREASING THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE AS THE DAY WEARS ON. LOCALIZED EXCESSIVE RAIN IS POSSIBLE
...AND EVEN A FEW SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. FOR
FURTHER DETAILS...PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT...SPSGSP...ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

A DAILY CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.