Winter Storm in Rhode Island, December 5 to 7, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
915 PM EST FRI DEC 5 2003

.NEAR TERM...WE HAVE MADE UPDATES TO UPGRADE TO WINTER STORM WARNING
CAPE COD...NANTUCKET...MARTHAS VINEYARD...AND BLOCK ISLAND.  ALSO...
EXTENDED WIND ADVISORY INTO SATURDAY AND EXPANDED TO MA E COAST
TO JUST S OF BOS.  NOTE ACK WIND IS HOLDING TOUGH AT 050 DEGREES AND
CQX AT 030 DEGREES.  GUSTS TO 35 KT AND 34 KT AT BID AND MVY...
RESPECTIVELY AT 02Z.

WE ARE SEEING A SERIES OF PROGRESSIVE MESOSCALE BANDS MOVE N ACROSS
THE ISLANDS AND AT 02Z IMPACTING A MMK-IJD-PYM-CQX LINE.  BASED ON
18Z MESOSCALE MODEL AND LATEST RUC...ANTICIPATE HEAVY WAA SNOW TO
SPREAD N ACROSS REST OF COUNTY WARNING AREA.  LATEST RUC SUPPORTS
EARLIER MODELS IN LIKLIHOOD OF HEAVIER SNOW BAND BECOMING QUASI-
STATIONARY IN DEFORMATION ZONE FOR 6 OR SO HOURS OVERNIGHT.  STILL
NOT SURE JUST WHERE THIS WILL SET UP LATER BUT SUSPECT N OF WHERE THE
HEAVY SNOW IS NOW FALLING...POSSIBLY NW CT TO A LITTLE N OF BOS.
HAVE UPPED PREDICTED SNOW AMOUNTS FOR MOST ZONES TONIGHT.

STILL LOOKING FOR LULL SAT MORNING...ESPECIALLY SE OF A BAF-ORH-LWM
LINE...BEFORE A REENERGIZED SLUG OF HEAVY SNOW LATER SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY AS NOW ADVERTISING.  AGREE WITH PRIOR THINKING FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.  EXPECTING A SLOWER WIND DOWN AS PER THE GFS.

BY THE TIME THIS EVENT WINDS DOWN LATER SUNDAY...ANTICIPATE MUCH OF
COUNTY WARNING AREA BACK FROM IMMEDIATE SE COAST WILL HAVE 10 TO 20
INCHES WITH SPOTTY AMOUNTS APPROACHING 2 FT NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
WHERE PERSISTENT BANDS SET UP.

&&

.AVIATION...
WIDESPREAD IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS SPREADING N OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGHOUT THE AREA ON SAT.

&&

.MARINE...
NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES BUT RAISING WINDS AND SEAS SOME FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST.  NOTE THAT AT 01Z WERE ALREADY GETTING GUSTS TO 42 KT AT
THE BUZZARDS BAY CMAN AND SEAS HAVE COME UP TO 12 FT ALREADY AT
BUOY 44017.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH SUN ZONES 2>4.
MA...WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH SUN ZONES 2>21-26.
     WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT ZONES 22>24.
     WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY ZONES 20>24.
     WINTER STORM WATCH SAT NIGHT AND SUN ZONES 22>24.
NH...WINTER STORM WARNING LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUN ZONES 11-12-15.
RI...WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT THROUGH SUN ZONES 1>7.
     WINTER STORM WARNING TONIGHT ZONE 8.
     WIND ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY ZONES 6>8.
     WINTER STORM WATCH SAT NIGHT AND SUN ZONE 8.
MARINE...STORM WARNING EXCEPT GALE WARNING BOSTON HARBOR AND
NARRAGANSETT BAY.
&&

BOX EVENING FORECAST TEAM:
NEAR TERM...BUTTRICK/DUNHAM/THOMPSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
420 PM EST FRI DEC 5 2003

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>008-061300-
BARNSTABLE-BLOCK ISLAND-BRISTOL-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX COUNTY-CHESHIRE-
DUKES-EASTERN ESSEX-EASTERN FRANKLIN-EASTERN HAMPDEN-
EASTERN HAMPSHIRE-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH-EASTERN KENT-EASTERN NORFOLK-
EASTERN PLYMOUTH-HARTFORD-NANTUCKET-NEWPORT-NORTHERN BRISTOL-
NORTHERN WORCESTER-NORTHWEST MIDDLESEX COUNTY-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE-
SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX-SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE-SOUTHERN BRISTOL-
SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH-SOUTHERN WORCESTER-SUFFOLK-TOLLAND-WASHINGTON-
WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH-WESTERN ESSEX-WESTERN FRANKLIN-
WESTERN HAMPDEN-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE-WESTERN KENT-WESTERN NORFOLK-
WESTERN PLYMOUTH-WINDHAM-
420 PM EST FRI DEC 5 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE...
MASSACHUSETTS EAST OF BERKSHIRE COUNTY...NORTHEAST CONNECTICUT AND
RHODE ISLAND.

.DAY ONE...
A MAJOR SLOW MOVING WINTER STORM WILL IMPACT MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND AND SOUTHWEST NEW HAMPSHIRE WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW AND
INCREASINGLY GUSTY WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY.

A WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...EXCEPT FOR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.  A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR CAPE COD...MARTHAS VINEYARD AND BLOCK
ISLAND FOR TONIGHT.  REFER TO THE WINTER WEATHER BULLETIN UNDER WMO
HEADER WWUS41 WSWBOX FOR DETAILS.

A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TONIGHT FOR SOUTH COASTAL RHODE
ISLAND AND MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.  REFER
TO THE WEATHER BULLETIN UNDER WMO HEADER WWUS71 NPWBOX FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
WINTER STORM WARNINGS CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY FOR ALL OF SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...EXCEPT FOR CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...WHERE A WINTER STORM
WATCH IS IN EFFECT SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

IT IS LIKELY THAT THERE WILL BE SEVERAL CORRIDORS OF LOCALLY HEAVY
SNOW ACCUMULATION THAT EVENTUALLY IMPACT THE REGION.  WHILE IT IS FAR
TOO EARLY TO PIN POINT WHERE THESE MAY LIE...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR
A WIDESPREAD 6 TO 12 INCH SNOWFALL WITH THE HEAVIEST CORRIDORS
RECEIVING AS MUCH AS 12 TO 18 INCHES.

IN ADDITION...INCREASING NORTH WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MAY
PRODUCE NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
REGION AS THE STORM SLOWLY DEPARTS.

COASTAL FLOODING SUNDAY...
SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO UP TO 18 TO 23 FEET IN THE
MASSACHUSETTS COASTAL WATERS.  THIS...IN COMBINATION WITH THE STRONG
WINDS MAY LEAD TO COASTAL FLOODING AROUND THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE ON
SUNDAY MORNING.  THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE FOR NORTH FACING
EXPOSURES.  ALTHOUGH THE TIDES ARE NOT ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH...AN
EXPECTED STORM SURGE OF 3 FEET WILL LEAD TO THIS POSSIBILITY OF
COASTAL FLOODING.  AT BOSTON...THE PREDICTED HIGH TIDE IS AT 10 AM
SUNDAY AND 10 FT MLLW.  A 3 FOOT STORM SURGE ON TOP OF THIS WILL MEAN
A 13 FOOT STORM TIDE.  THIS COMBINED WITH VERY HIGH SEAS COULD LEAD
TO SIGNIFICANT SPLASHOVER AND FLOODING OF COASTAL ROADWAYS.  WINDS
MAY HAVE SHIFTED TO THE NORTH BY THEN...WHICH WOULD NOT BE AS
SIGNIFICANT FOR MOST AREAS AS A NORTHEAST WIND.  IT STILL IS TOO
EARLY FOR THE ISSUANCE OF A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH...BUT ALL INTERESTS
SHOULD PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO THE LATEST FORECAST.

HIGH WIND...
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 MPH OVER MUCH OF
EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND...WITH GUSTS PERHAPS AS HIGH
AS 50 TO 60 MPH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND ESPECIALLY OVER CAPE
COD AND THE ISLANDS. THESE STRONG WINDS MAY OCCUR AS EARLY AS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY IN THOSE
AREAS. THE COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND GUSTY NORTHEAST
WINDS MAY CAUSE SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUESTED THIS WEEKEND. STAY TUNED
FOR MORE INFORMATION IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
509 PM EST FRI DEC 5 2003

MAZ007-015-016-019>024-RIZ006>008-060500-
BARNSTABLE MA-BLOCK ISLAND RI-DUKES MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-
EASTERN NORFOLK MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-NANTUCKET MA-NEWPORT RI-
SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-SUFFOLK MA-WASHINGTON RI-
509 PM EST FRI DEC 5 2003

...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS AND COASTAL FLOODING REMAIN A
CONCERN FOR PORTIONS OF THE THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER IN
THE WEEKEND...

A SLOW MOVING AND INTENSE STORM WILL PRODUCE STRONG WINDS ACROSS
SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.  NORTHEAST WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 30 TO 40 MPH OVER COASTAL MASSACHUSETTS AND COASTAL
RHODE ISLAND SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 50 AND 60
MPH POSSIBLE.  THE WIND WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH EARLY SUNDAY AND THEN
TO THE NORTHWEST LATE SUNDAY.  THESE WINDS MAY PRODUCE SCATTERED
POWER OUTAGES.

THE PERSISTENT STRONG WINDS WILL PRODUCE SEAS NEAR 20 FEET JUST
OFFSHORE...AND A 2 TO POSSIBLY 3 FOOT STORM SURGE BY SUNDAY MORNING.
THUS...AT LEAST MINOR COASTAL FLOODING LOOKS TO BE LIKELY AROUND THE
TIME OF THE SUNDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG EAST FACING SHORES OF
MASSACHUSETTS.  MORE SERIOUS COASTAL FLOODING COULD OCCUR DURING THE
SUNDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE...AND A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE
ISSUED LATER.  HIGH TIDE OCCURS BETWEEN 10 AM AND 11 AM ALONG MUCH OF
THE MASSACHUSETTS EAST COAST ON SUNDAY MORNING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

THOMPSON