Flash Flood in Puerto Rico, May 17, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
500 PM AST SAT MAY 17 2003

SCATTERED SHOWERS COULD BE SEEN ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS BUT THE
MAJOR CONCENTRATION ARE LOCATED NORTHWEST OF PUERTO RICO AND NEAR
THE USVI. ONCE AGAIN WE EXPECT SIMILAR CONDITIONS TO YESTERDAY THE
ONLY DIFF WILL BE A SLIGHT INCREASE ON MOISTURE. TONIGHT...AVN MODEL
IS SHOWING A RH MAX AFFECTING THE USVI AND LATER ON THE EASTERN
SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. NO BIG CHANGES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS.

WE COULD EXPERIENCE AN INCREASE ON TEMPS WINDS ARE EXPECT TO
DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AND TURN TO A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT ON
WEDNESDAY.

MARINE CONDITIONS...SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. IS NOT UNTIL WEDNESDAY WHEN A NORTHERN SWELL WILL REACH
OUR NORTHERN COAST AND PASSAGES. THE MODEL WW3 IS SHOWING THE SWELL
PEAKING ON THU AT 1.6 METERS. I BELIEVE THIS FORECAST COULD
CHANGE...I DO NOT SEE A GOOD FETCH DEVELOPING FROM THIS LOW. THE
MODELS ARE SHOWING THIS LOW PRESSURE FLYING ACROSS THE ATLANTIC. IN
MY OPINION WE SHOULD BE CONSERVATIVE IN OUR WAVE HEIGHT FORECAST FOR
THIS EVENT.

SJU BB 087/074 087/074 089 10433
    BBBBW 075/090 076/089 074/088 074/087 073 44444444052
STT BB 086/074 086/074 087 10434
    BBBBB 075/088 075/087 074/086 074/085 073 44444444445

.SJU...
.PR...NONE
.VI...NONE.

EQUIPMENT: NO PROBLEMS AT THIS TIME.

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS GONE GRAPHICAL TAKE A
LOOK AT OUR NEW GRAPHICAL FORECAST AT:
    HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/DATA/IFPS/SJU/GFE  (ALL LOWER CASE)
ADDITIONAL IMAGES ARE ON THE WAY

WRITTEN TEXT FORECASTS (IN ENGLISH OR SPANISH)...SATELLITE IMAGERY
...DOPPLER RADAR DATA...AND A VIRTUAL LIBRARY OF WEATHER INFORMATION
CAN BE FOUND AT THE NWS SAN JUAN WEB SITE AT:
    HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU (ALL LOWER CASE).

PRZ001>013-VIZ001-002-AMZ710>750-172200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
600 AM AST SAT MAY 17 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PUERTO RICO.

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVER PUERTO
RICO. THE FOCUS OF THESE SHOWERS WILL AGAIN BE OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN INTERIOR AND NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF PUERTO RICO. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN THESE AREAS. PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL LIKELY LEAD TO URBAN FLOODING AND/OR SIGNIFICANT RISES
IN LOCAL RIVERS AND STREAMS IN A FEW AREAS. SATURATED HILLSIDES MAY
ALSO LEAD TO MUDSLIDES IN ISOLATED AREAS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUESTED.

.SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
WESTERN AND NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE ISLAND SUNDAY.

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

.TODAY AND TONIGHT...SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS WILL OCCUR ACROSS THE
ISLANDS TODAY AND TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH SOME BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL IS
POSSIBLE...NO FLOODING IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

.SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WEB
SITE FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS AT (ALL LOWERCASE
LETTERS): HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/SJU.