Damaging Wind in Pennsylvania, October 14, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
330 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2003

VIGOROUS S/WV LIFTING NE THRU THE MIDWEST STILL PROGGED TO
STRENGTHEN AND TAKE NEG TILT AS IT TRACKS INTO PA TONIGHT. RESULTANT
SSE LL JET WILL BRING A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN TO CENTRAL PA...ALONG
WITH ELEVATED CONVECTION JUST AHEAD OF OCCLUDED FRONT. SVR THREAT
SEEMS MINIMAL THIS EVENING...AS WARM FRONT SHOULD REMAIN SOUTH AND
LOWER DWPTS/MORE STABLE AIR WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED EAST OF MTNS.
REGIONAL RADAR LOOP IN OHIO VALLEY SUGGESTING ONLY A 4-6 HOUR PERIOD
OF RAINFALL...AS THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING QUITE RAPIDLY.
HOWEVER...SHORT RANGE MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH A GENERAL 1 TO 1.5
INCH QPF. MAIN STORY WILL BE THE HIGH WIND THREAT LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY. SYNOPTIC SCENARIO OF STRENGTHENING SFC LO PASSING JUST TO
OUR NW IS PERFECT FOR HIGH WINDS IN PA. LITTLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR AND
UNSTABLE SOUNDINGS SUGGEST OUR GUSTS WEDNESDAY COULD APPROACH THE
PROGGED 850 WINDS OF 50-55 KTS. MOS SUSTAINED WINDS OF 25-30 MPH
SEEM REASONABLE WITH GUST 45-50 MPH.

COLD NW FLOW WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SCT LAKE EFFECT RAIN SHOWERS WED
AND WED NITE. A WEAK S/WV MAY PRODUCE A BIT OF LIGHT OVERRUNNING
RAINFALL THURSDAY OR THURS NITE...MOST LIKELY SOUTHERN AND WESTERN
SECTIONS. IN THE EXTENDED RANGE...LATEST MREF SHOWS A MORE
SIGNIFICANT S/WV DROPPING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY ON FRIDAY. MREF TRACK
ON SFC LO WOULD SUGGEST A COLD RAIN FRIDAY NITE AND EARLY SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...WILL KEEP MENTION OF RAIN OR SNOW OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS
AS 12Z ETA STILL HOLDING TO A FURTHER SOUTH/COLDER SOLUTION.

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...WIND ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY.

FITZGERALD

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-141930-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
128 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT.  BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH SOME LIGHTNING STRIKES.  THE
COMBINATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO 35 MPH MAY CAUSE
SOME LIMBS AND WEAKLY ROOTED TREES TO FALL.

WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL INCREASE LATER TONIGHT. THE PREVIOUS
HIGH WIND WATCH WILL BE REPLACED BY A WIND ADVISORY FOR POSSIBLE
SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS GREATER THAN 30 MPH FOR SEVERAL HOURS LATE
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

A WIND ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE OVER ALL OF CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
THROUGHOUT WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>036-041-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-150330-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
136 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2003

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT.  BANDS OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT THIS EVENING. RAINFALL
RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR MAY OCCUR AS THE FRONT PASSES. THE
COMBINATION OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO 35 MPH MAY LOCALLY
CAUSE SOME LIMBS AND WEAKLY ROOTED TREES TO FALL.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

DEVOIR

PAZ024-033-142245-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
520 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOMERSET AND CAMBRIA COUNTIES...

AT 516 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH INTO WESTERN
SOMERSET AND CAMBRIA COUNTIES. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR
CONFLUENCE...ADDISON AT 550 PM...SEVEN SPRINGS AT 555 PM...MOUNT
DAVIS...CASSELMAN AT 600 PM...SALISBURY...ROCKWOOD AT 605
PM...SOMERSET...MEYERSDALE AND JENNERSTOWN AT 610 PM.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. WINDS OF THIS
MAGNITUDE CAN KNOCK DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOW UNSECURED OBJECTS
AROUND.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WARNING IS
ISSUED

DANGELO

PAZ004-142245-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
525 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WARREN COUNTY...

AT 521 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH INTO WESTERN
WARREN COUNTY. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR ENTERPRISE AT 555
PM...GRAND VALLEY AND COLUMBUS AT 600 PM...SPRING CREEK AT 605
PM...TIDIOUTE...LOTTSVILLE AND BEAR LAKE AT 610 PM...YOUNGSVILLE AND
SUGAR GROVE AT 620 PM...WARREN BY 630 PM.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.  WINDS OF THIS
MAGNITUDE CAN KNOCK DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOW UNSECURED OBJECTS
AROUND.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WARNING IS
ISSUED

DANGELO

PAZ005-010-017-142330-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
539 PM EDT TUE OCT 14 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MCKEAN...CLEARFIELD AND ELK
COUNTIES...

AT 536 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
NORTH-SOUTH LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH
THROUGH WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR
BURNSIDE AT 625 PM...WESTOVER...TROUTVILLE AND NEW WASHINGTON AT 630
PM...PORTLAND MILLS...LUDLOW AND DUBOIS AT 635 PM...WETMORE AND
TREASURE LAKE AT 640 PM...CLEARFIELD...SAINT MARYS AND BRADFORD BY
700 PM.

WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM. WINDS OF THIS
MAGNITUDE CAN KNOCK DOWN TREE LIMBS AND BLOW UNSECURED OBJECTS
AROUND.

BE PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION IF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WARNING IS
ISSUED

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