Flood in Pennsylvania, June 8, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
432 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2003

UPDATED ZONES TO ADD SVR TSTM WATCH FOR WARREN CO.

FITZGERALD

**************** PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW ************************

CLOUDS HOLDING TOUGH MOST OF CWA THIS AFTN...FAR WESTERN SECTIONS
ARE THE EXCEPTION. SOME BREAKS HAVE ALLOWED THE TEMPS TO CREEP
TOWARD THE 70 DEGREE MARK MOST PLACES. LATEST VIS IMAGERY DOES SHOW
SOME OF THE LOW CLOUDS BEING SCOURED OUT...BUT MUCH OF CWA WILL
REMAIN COLD AIR DAMMED THROUGH EVE.

COLD FRONT PROGRESSING E THROUGH IN IS FORCING SQUALL LINE OVER
CENTRAL OH ATTM. EXPECT SHOWER/TSTM ACTIVITY TO REACH WRN CWA LATER
THIS EVE. LACK OF DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD DIMINISH CHANCE OF THUNDER
QUICKLY AFTER SS...BUT SHOWERS WILL OVERSPREAD CWA THROUGH MIDNIGHT.

MOST OF CENTRAL PA WILL ENJOY DRIER WEATHER ON MON IN POST FRONTAL
AMS...THOUGH CLOUDS WILL STILL BE ABUNDANT ESPECIALLY IN THE
MORNING. GOOD CHANCE AT SUN EXPECTED MON AFT...WITH TEMPS HAVING A
BETTER CHANCE TO REACH SEASONAL NORMALS. WILL CARRY SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS IN NWRN CORNER OF CWA AS UPR CORE LOW LIFTS NE.

SFC RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS CWA ON TUE WITH THE POSS IF ABUNDANT
SUNSHINE  THAT WILL NOT LAST TOO LONG HOWEVER AS PROGS MOVE NEXT
SLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TO PA DOORSTEP LATE TUE NIGHT/WED MORN. LOW IS
PROGGED TO LIFT ACROSS PA WED BRINGING MORE SHOWERS.

HPC MDM RNG PROGS KEEP SRN END OF WEDNESDAY FROPA DRAPED VICINITY OF
THE MASON DIXON LINE THUR THROUGH SUN...WHICH MEANS A RETURN TO
MOSTLY CLOUDY AND POTENTIALLY SHOWERY WEATHER FOR PA.

.CTP...SVR TSTM WATCH THRU 9 PM FOR WARREN CO.

GARTNER

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-081115-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
520 AM EDT SUN JUN 8 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...A COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS MORNING WILL MOVE
EAST AND CROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT.

WARMER TEMPERATURES BETWEEN 75 AND 80 THIS AFTERNOON...COMBINED WITH
DEWPOINTS CLIMBING ABOVE 60...WILL CREATE A MODERATELY UNSTABLE
AIRMASS OVER THE REGION BETWEEN 3 PM AND 9 PM.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OKLAHOMA HAS POSTED A SLIGHT
RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT.

THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
ISOLATED...DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH...AND
PERHAPS HAIL IN A FEW LOCATIONS UP TO NICKEL SIZE IN DIAMETER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA TUESDAY
NIGHT...PERHAPS LEADING TO ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS...ALONG WITH
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

LAMBERT

PAZ004-090100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
445 PM EDT SUN JUN 8 2003

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM FOR WARREN
COUNTY...

A COLD FRONT...OVER OHIO LATE THIS AFTERNOON...WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING. A LINE OF STRONG TO POTENTIALLY
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. THE MOST LIKELY TIME
FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE BETWEEN THE HOURS OF 7 AND 10 PM. DAMAGING
WINDS..LARGE HAIL..AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...CHECK OUR WEB SITE
AT...WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/ER/CTP

FITZGERALD