Flash Flood in Pennsylvania, June 21, 2003

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
130 PM EDT SAT JUN 21 2003

...FINAL ISC BY 230 PM...WORK ZONES ETC BY 315 PM...ZONES BY 345
PM...

...CHANGES...

WILL MAKE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS...AND EDGE TEMPS DOWN FOR SUNDAY...AND
SELECTED OTHER PERIODS.

WILL CALL FOR CHC SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR NEXT SAT.

...DISC...

...SHORT TERM...

UGLY WX PATTERN DUMPING TONS OF RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. UPWARDS OF
3 PLUS INCHES ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL PA AND EASTERN PART
OF CWA. IT IS WET OUT THERE...AND FFG IS ABOUT AS LOW AS ONE SEES IT.

UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL PA...NOT TOO FAR FROM UNV...WITH
WEAK SFC LOW NEAR SOUTHERN NJ.

SHOWERS ROTATING TO THE WEST AND NORTH STILL...THEN DROPPING SOUTH
ACROSS HIGHLANDS.

WORSE AREA OF HEAVY SHOWERS NOW OVER LAKE ONTARIO...BUT ANOTHER
HEAVY BATCH MOVING WESTWARD TOWARD AVP. VERY DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER
THE AREA...WITH SIGNIFICANT DIFFLUENT FLOW ACROSS THE REGION...
LIKELY TO KEEP SOME SHOWERS ACROSS EASTERN AREAS INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING...AS CYCLONIC FLOW HOLDS. ALSO PLENTY OF PATCHY LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE THROUGHOUT THE REGION. ANOTHER THING GOING FOR THE RAIN
IS AIRMASS STAYS UNSTABLE INTO EARLY MONDAY...THIS MAKES SENSE...SUN
ANGLE IS HIGH...STORMS THAT FORM CAN LINGER WELL INTO THE EVENING
HOURS...I FORGET IT IS SUMMER. THINK SUMMER STARTS AT 310 PM TODAY.

TEMPS NOT LIKELY TO GO ANYWHERE TODAY...EXCEPT MAYBE SOUTHERN YORK
ETC. NOT THE BEST WARMING FOR SUNDAY OR MONDAY...SOURCE REGION OF
THIS AIRMASS IS COLD.

VERY SHARP CLOUD EDGE OVER SOUTHERN CANADA.

WILL KEEP FLOOD WATCH UP...LIKELY TO SEE MORE HEAVY SHOWERS...WILL
SEE WHAT THE RFC NUMBERS SHOW...AND ALSO IT TAKES SOME TIME FOR RAIN
TO RUNOFF.

GROUND IS SOAKING WET...HARD TO SEE REAL WARM TEMPS ON SUNDAY WITH
CLOUD COVER...MOST LIKELY WILL TRIM BACK ON AFTERNOON PACKAGE.

THINK STEVE IN LWX WAS ONE OF THE FIRST TO HINT AT THIS STORM LAST
WEEKND. ANOTHER COLD/WET STORM OCCURRED BACK IN JULY 76...THAT WAS
A BIG FORECAST BUST.

...LONG TERM...

FORECAST WARM SPELL TO COME. WILL GO FROM A NASTY WET PATTERN TO
PERHAPS TOO MUCH HEAT. SEEMS TO BE TREND OF THE LAST FEW
DECADES...WHERE THERE IS LITTLE TIME (SPRING/FALL) TO GET MUCH
DONE...LIKE CROPS IN...BEFORE LESS THAN GREAT WEATHER OCCURS.

HOWEVER...WARM SPELL WILL BE MORE OF A LEFT OVER THING...AND TIME
OF YEAR...INSTEAD OF A MAJOR EAST COAST RIDGE. OVERALL PATTERN STILL
POINTS TO KEEPING MAJOR HEAT WELL TO THE WEST...AND THERE IS A RISK
OF SHOWER FROM LATE TUE ON...AT LEAST FOR THE NW PART OF THE CWA.
WILL LEAVE OUT OF FCST UNTIL THU...WHEN CHC IS HIGHER...AND THIS
FITS BETTER WITH OTHER FCSTS. OVERALL..UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS
QUITE STRONG FOR LATE JUNE.

.CTP...
PA...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ALL OF CENTRAL PA...WITH
EXCEPTION OF LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND NORTHWEST MTNS.

MARTIN

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-211130-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
532 AM EDT SAT JUN 21 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A SLOW MOVING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...OVER THE PANHANDLE OF WEST
VIRGINIA THIS MORNING...WILL TRACK EASTWARD TO JUST SOUTH OF CAPE
COD BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS TO
PENNSYLVANIA TODAY...ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS. HEAVY RAIN FROM RECENT DAYS...COMBINED
WITH TODAYS RAIN...COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING IN PARTS OF
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.