Flood in Florida, June 21 to 30, 2003

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
300 AM EDT SAT JUN 21 2003

CURRENTLY...NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ZONES GETTING A BREAK WITH HEAVIEST
RAINS EXITING SOUTHERN ZONES.  NEXT ROUND OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY BEGINNING TO INCREASE ONCE AGAIN OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND
THIS WILL SPREAD ONSHORE THIS MORNING ALONG THE COASTAL COUNTIES OF
WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

SHORT TERM (TODAY-MON)...PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE REGION WITH GOOD DIFLUENCE ALOFT HELPING
TO GENERATE WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ONCE AGAIN
TODAY.  IT APPEARS THAT TODAYS LOCATION FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL
BE OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA GENERALLY SOUTH OF A LINE FROM BROOKSVILLE TO
ORLANDO AND NORTH OF A LINE FROM VENICE TO LAKE OKEECHOBEE.  RAINFALL
TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN THESE AREAS WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS.  FLOODING IS ALSO LIKELY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND WILL ADD INTERIOR COUNTIES TO
CURRENT FLOOD WATCH.  AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT
SLOWLY SOUTHWARD ON SUNDAY TO ACROSS SOUTHWEST FLORIDA MAINLY SOUTH
OF A LINE FROM BRADENTON TO SEBRING.  ON MONDAY...UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL BEGIN TO PULL OUT ALLOWING RIDGE TO BUILD BACK OVER THE
PENINSULA WITH DRIER AIR OVERSPREADING THE FORECAST AREA.  STILL
EXPECT TO SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER INTERIOR AND
SOUTHERN ZONES...BUT NOTHING AS WIDESPREAD AS TODAY AND SUNDAY.

MAV TEMPERATURES LOOK REASONABLE FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT...BUT ALL
GUIDANCE SEEMS A BIT HIGH ON MAX TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY GIVEN
PLENTY OF CLOUDS AND ON MONDAY GIVEN SOAKING WET GROUND...AND WILL
LOWER A CATEGORY.

EXTENDED (MON NGT-FRI)...
THE SUNCOAST WILL (FINALLY) LIVE UP TO ITS NAME FOR THIS COMING WORK
WEEK...PROVIDING MUCH WELCOME DRYING TO AREAS FLOODED BY THE REPEATED
RAINS OF THIS WEEKEND.  GFS STILL INDICATES DEEP MEAN LAYER DRYING
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS NORTH FLOW TAKES OVER ABOVE THE
SURFACE AROUND PERIPHERY OF BROADENING RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN U.S.

PLAN TO JUST EASE THE PCPN AREA A BIT FARTHER SOUTH TUESDAY...AND
REDUCE TO ISOLATED WEDNESDAY BEFORE RETURNING TO SCATTERED FOR
THURSDAY/FRIDAY.  IN ALL CASES...CHANCES SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL.
AS FOR TEMPERATURES...CURRENT FORECAST OF HOT (LOW 90S) TEMPERATURES
LOOKS GOOD GIVEN AMPLE SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

MARINE...WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY THEN
SHIFT TO NORTH ON MONDAY AND THEN EAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.  SPEEDS WILL REMAIN UNDER
15 KNOTS SO NO FLAGS ANTICIPATED.

FIRE WEATHER...NO HIGHLIGHTS.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS:
BKV 084/073 089/071 8452
TPA 084/076 087/075 9772
GIF 084/074 087/074 9672
SRQ 084/076 086/074 9794
FMY 085/074 086/074 9794

.TBW...FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL ZONES TODAY.

PRC/BSG

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HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL FL
623 AM EDT FRI JUN 20 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

...A FLOOD WATCH FOR COASTAL COUNTIES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO TRAVERSE THE AREA TODAY
AND TONIGHT...PROVIDING PERIODS OF RAIN WHICH MAY BE HEAVY AT
TIMES. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY MOVING ACROSS MANY OF
THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND ARE EXPECTED INCREASE AND COVER ALL OF
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA BY LATE MORNING.

THE GREATEST THREAT TODAY WILL BE FLOODING...ESPECIALLY IN FLOOD
PRONE AREAS...WITH RAINFALL THAT COULD GENERALLY BE IN THE 2
TO 4 INCH RANGE. BUT LOCALLY...AMOUNTS COULD POSSIBLY BE AS HIGH
AS 6 TO 10 INCHES.

IN ADDITION...THE HEAVIER THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSE A THREAT
WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND DANGEROUS LIFE THREATENING LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY:

THE MOIST TROPICAL AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM OVER THE AREA
WITH THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN SATURDAY AND SOME FLOODING
IS STILL POSSIBLE. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME SCATTERED SUNDAY.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WILL SEE A RETURN TO ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
MAINLY AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

09

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1235 AM EDT SAT JUN 21 2003

...TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF LEE COUNTY...
SHOWERS...AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH...WILL
AFFECT PINE ISLAND...CAPE CORAL...FORT MYERS AND ESTERO...UNTIL 115
AM EDT.  RAINFALL OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN AN HOUR MAY CAUSE MINOR
FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.  WIND GUSTS MAY
APPROACH 30 MPH...ALONG WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING.
&&
RESIDENTS...PRIMARILY MOTORISTS...MAY WANT TO AVOID TRAVEL UNTIL THE
PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF AFTER 2 AM.

GOLDSMITH